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What Will Happen in the 2020s

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Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#421

Post by pmiller2 »

commandlinefan wrote: post #317
aazaa wrote: post #85

Many of these seem like wishful thinking on the part of the author. For example, take the first one: > The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one. Oddly enough, if you go back to 2010 for predictions about the next decade, you'll see quite a few people talking about "peak oil." Almost nobody predicted a sharp turnaround in oil production and I don't think anyon…

> Grave prophecies of doom will not come to pass, causing loss of momentum and credibility. Why would you think this? Grave prophecies of doom have failed to come to pass for nearly half a century now and the climate change tale is _gaining_ momentum.

Failed to come to pass? Are you aware there’s an entire continent literally on fire right now?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#422

Post by gordaco »

sumedh wrote: post #408
Supermancho wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> eating meat is a matter of status Chicken mcnuggets are barely chicken. The market already demonstrated that "real meat" is a matter of availability and marketing, not a matter status chasing (not that there aren't exceptions, which are a statistical minority). I'm not sure why anyone thinks this is a compelling argument. SMH

I think the OP is taking about beef and pork for making his point. Does raising chickens even have the same impact as raising cattle on the climate?

Yes, I was thinking mostly about beef. Which seems to be the most environmentally impactful meat, by the way. Pork is less impactful and poultry is even less.

Obligatory wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_meat_p...

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#423

Post by henrikschroder »

cletus wrote: post #416

So, I have a problem with a large number of these points. Each point alone requires a long rebuttal that no one would read. I think Fred is way off here. The bullet points: 1. There will be no global change in human behaviour and activity that is against the short term interests of those people. Period. The way to replace fossil fuels with renewables is by them being a cheaper source of power. We're well on the way h…

Actually, one more significant problem with nuclear power is that there isn't enough manufacturing capability to build reactor cores. Most existing reactors are decades old, and although we have a lot of theoretical knowledge on how to build reactors, how to build more modern reactors than the existing ones, we globally lack the practical know-how, there's no assembly line that we can just pick up reactors from. So the cost of a new reactors is almost unknown. How much does it cost to build the factory that builds the reactors?

Handling nuclear waste is much easier, because we're actively working on that problem, there's practical know-how in spades.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#425

Post by jtr1 »

spodek wrote: post #418

Climate left out many other environmental issues: pollution, plastic, extinctions, etc Most of all Overpopulation. People fear discussing it now because they only know of China's policy and eugenics. I predict that the successful, non-coercive policies of Thailand, Iran, Mexico, etc that increased peace, prosperity, and stability will become better known. Those models will lead us to realize that we can peacefully an…

I'm intrigued by this and definitely open to learning more about de-growth models. Would you mind providing some examples of the policies implemented in these countries?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#426

Post by s_Hogg »

aazaa wrote: post #85

Many of these seem like wishful thinking on the part of the author. For example, take the first one: > The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one. Oddly enough, if you go back to 2010 for predictions about the next decade, you'll see quite a few people talking about "peak oil." Almost nobody predicted a sharp turnaround in oil production and I don't think anyon…

I'm in a country that has seen the land mass of Indonesia (population: approx. 240 million), burn off in the last month or so. I'm not sure where you are (somewhere colder?), but it's real and happening now and there's no further argument to be had about it really. Talking about the credibility of institutions changes nothing of the actuality of what is actually going on.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#427

Post by [deleted] »

cletus wrote: post #416

So, I have a problem with a large number of these points. Each point alone requires a long rebuttal that no one would read. I think Fred is way off here. The bullet points: 1. There will be no global change in human behaviour and activity that is against the short term interests of those people. Period. The way to replace fossil fuels with renewables is by them being a cheaper source of power. We're well on the way h…

[deleted]

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#428

Post by tick_tock_tick »

rch wrote: post #224
mymythisisthis wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Internet had temperately killed technical clubs like HAM radio, wood working shops etc., as people got into coding and could collaborate remotely. Around 2008 lots of Makerspaces started to open, but not nearly enough, the maker movement has stalled though. We need to rethink the ways schools operate, from 8am-3pm they can be for kids. After 4pm they can be adult learning hubs, maker spaces, DIY bicycle repair sh…

I think libraries are a better fit than public schools, and some already have maker spaces, seed banks or gardens, and opportunities for continuing education. With funding provided by a dedicated library district (which is increasingly common) in addition to private foundation support, these institutions can have a significant positive impact in the communities they serve.

School are normally significantly larger and mostly unused outside of their normal operating hours. Realistically it shouldn't be an either or thing but rather both.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#429

Post by ilaksh »

The global debt crisis and intractable US entitlements will lead to a global depression. China will promote a new cryptocurrency to compete directly with the failing dollar. The US and allies will attempt to use their massive military to defend the dollar. China will not have sufficient military might be so will lean on other countries in particular Russia with their nuclear arsenal.

World War III will be sold on supposed moral grounds as all wars are. China and other countries will say that they need to defeat an evil US that is immoral and forcing the world to use their baseless currency causing great suffering. The US will say that China is attempting to create a global dictatorship with total control and no freedom. Both sides will see moral justification to fight to the death.

As the likelihood of the war ramps up over the next few years, there will be a feverish push to create general purpose AI and improved robotic locomotion such as artificial muscle-based locomotion with high strength to weight ratios. Around the time that the first nuclear salvos arrive, perhaps around 2023-2025, these efforts will pay off with robust general AI and humanoid robots.

By 2030, the planet will be a nuclear wasteland, with several billion dead. There will be a new religion pushing to give the AGIs full autonomy and control. The Martian colony will have a few dozen people already and rapidly ramping up.

A growing group of nuclear survivors have adapted with advanced high bandwidth brain-computer interfaces connected to superintelligent AI systems that act as a supercortical layer.

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