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What Will Happen in the 2020s

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Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#391

Post by elfexec »

cyphar wrote: post #377
elfexec wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A lot of the article seems to be based on liberal ideals Not liberal ideals. Globalist neoliberal ideals. > which include a less prominent America, the promotion of Veganism, and embracing the fall of the West. These aren't liberal ideals. They are globalist neoliberal ideals. Anti-human, anti-american and pro-globalist financiers. > or it becomes more closely unified and a world power in the likes of the US, Russi…

> Not liberal ideals. Globalist neoliberal ideals. "Neoliberal" refers to Clinton-style ("third way") liberal politicians. I don't know who you're using it to refer to. > Having europe turn from a "vassal" to a competitor would represent a significant loss of power for the US. You forgot to include why you think that's a bad thing. > Guam and Puerto Rico are already part of the US. But they can't vote and have no (us…

> "Neoliberal" refers to Clinton-style ("third way") liberal politicians. I don't know who you're using it to refer to.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism

> You forgot to include why you think that's a bad thing.

What? I'm just pointing out why the US would be against a EU competitor? Perhaps you need to reread what I wrote and the comment I was responding to. I think "globalist neoliberal" triggered something that made you see things that aren't there.

> But they can't vote and have no (useful) representation in Congress.

All I said was that they are part of the US.

> Citizens of Guam and Puerto Rico are treated as second class citizens ("US Nationals", not "US Citizens").

Sure. But they are still part of the US. I was responding to " Furthermore, I think we could see the United States grow with the additions of Guam, Puerto Rico, and/or Greenland." Blacks and women couldn't vote in NY and the US for a long time. Doesn't mean NY wasn't a part of the US or the US existed.

I think "globalist neoliberal" really got you reading into things. I made specific replies to specific comments. Which you completely ignored.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#392

Post by Mikeb85 »

These predictions don't show any particular insight beyond the things that absolutely everyone talked about in 2019. Literally just predicting that some of this year's causes du jour will extend a decade.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#393

Post by cc439 »

joyjoyjoy wrote: post #280
bransonf wrote: post #209

A few good takes, but China becoming the dominant global power? Not a good take. China is fairly good at a few things, namely lending money and manufacturing goods. What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months. I don’t think the United States is becoming increasingly isolationist. I think we’ve seen a brief period of these attitudes, but it’s not indicative of the next decade i…

"What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months." Wrong Chinese people are very happy. In some rankings they belong to the happiest people. Here they are medium range: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/09/10... My prediction: We will see an economic depression, also caused by energy problems. The current quantitative easing is actually the first sign of the p…

>We will see an economic depression, also caused by energy problems. The current quantitative easing is actually the first sign of the problems with energy:

One of the only realistic takes in this thread. The current, generationally low price of oil is built entirely upon the output of North American fracking. Fracking is the most capital intensive business on earth at the moment and most players are actually losing money. They are bouyed by the current, generationally low interest rates which are built upon politicized central banking policy. When interest rates rise, fracking grinds to a halt. When fracking stops, the price of oil shoots to 2008 or greater levels and the global economy grinds to a halt. The century scale economic depression that will result entirely invalidates each and every prediction made by the author of the article we're discussing.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#394

Post by Mikeb85 »

pascalxus wrote: post #272
opportune wrote: post #236

I don’t really buy into 4-6. I don’t see any benefit for a country to turn its currency into a crypto asset. Either they are relinquishing a great deal of control in democratizing their financial system (also exposing themselves to attack), or it’s a crypto in name only that doesn’t seem any better than digital cash through banks except for a buzzword. Decentralization is hit or miss. You get economies of scale with…

Yes, the only way #6 will come true is if the replacement for meat looks, smells and tastes exactly like the real thing and it'll have to be cheaper too. People all over the world love meat, especially US, UK and the Chinese. I've tried to convince some family members to reduce their meat consumption even a tiniest amount gets a huge amount of resistance. People aren't going to give up their meat: they may not even b…

It's also funny he compares it to caviar which today is almost all farmed and is as cheap as it's ever been in living memory.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#395

Post by larnmar »

On the central conceit about people underestimating how much happens in a decade... how much has happened in the last decade?

I feel like very little has changed in the last decade. Technologically, socially, politically, it feels like we’ve lived through a decade of very little noticeable change, especially compared to other periods such as 1990-2000 or 1980-1990.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#396

Post by wincy »

gordaco wrote: post #322
6nf wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Faced with a choice between beef or fake beef that tastes exactly the same, most people will just go for the real beef. They don't want the highly processed fake stuff that contains who knows what. The only way beef loses is if the alternatives are significantly cheaper. If a McBeef is $5 more than a McFakeBeef then you got a shot at converting people.

You are being downvoted, but I think that you are totally right. For an awful lot of people, eating meat is a matter of status; it's similar to why many people prefer having big cars even if they are less environmentally friendly. There is also the fact that plant based diets are still associated to certain ideologies and because of that they will keep being scoffed at by people from opposing ideologies. Sure, you do…

It doesn’t help that I get headaches when I eat my garden grown tomatoes. No such reaction to eating a ribeye. How tall will my children grow up to be on a plant based diet? I want my children to grow up to be stronger than those around them.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#397

Post by stephc_int13 »

In my opinion, most the predictions made here are dumb, to be honest.

It seems like a mix of wishful thinking and linear projection of a few trends this particular VC happen to like, but nothing bold or creative, nothing that could make me think and wonder.

Are most VCs living in their own world or something?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#398

Post by bobthepanda »

burfog wrote: post #349
Fauntleroy wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory the US could add Guam and Puerto Rico... but how would that ever be politically viable? There's no way this is going to happen if one party in a two party system knows it will lead to their doom.

Add two at once. Possibilities include creating West California, West Washington, South Virginia, and South Illinois.

That works for balancing the Senate, but not really the House.

Adding PR to the House would significantly reduce the odds of a Republican House given that the current GOP makes a lot of noises that often seem like they're racist against Hispanics.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#399

Post by Spearchucker »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #325

I too dream of a decentralized internet and especially decentralized cloud resources, but I can't find a way around the question of how you securely host a database on some random person's idle computer/"spot instance". If that data is compromised, who do you sue? The random person who has no assets? Data security ultimately depends on secure physical access to the hosting hardware. Not everything can or should be pu…

Multiple clients sync to/from a server. Server syncs with other servers. Part of the sync with clients is a list of all servers so clients can cycle servers until sync succeeds. Eventual consistency. I'm doing this with a small dataset now.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#400

Post by wavefunction »

LeftHandPath wrote: post #278
bransonf wrote: post #209

A few good takes, but China becoming the dominant global power? Not a good take. China is fairly good at a few things, namely lending money and manufacturing goods. What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months. I don’t think the United States is becoming increasingly isolationist. I think we’ve seen a brief period of these attitudes, but it’s not indicative of the next decade i…

A lot of the article seems to be based on liberal ideals, which include a less prominent America, the promotion of Veganism, and embracing the fall of the West. For the most part, the author’s expectations about crypto are mistaken in that they assume financiers in the west trust China enough to buy into its digital currency. We are bordering on a Cold War; we aren’t about to trust them to keep their promises on cryp…

I downvoted your for "liberal ideals" when the rest of your post reads like a flimsy cliche of a "non-liberal."
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