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What Will Happen in the 2020s

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Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#321

Post by rhlsthrm »

6nf wrote: post #304
pascalxus wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the only way #6 will come true is if the replacement for meat looks, smells and tastes exactly like the real thing and it'll have to be cheaper too. People all over the world love meat, especially US, UK and the Chinese. I've tried to convince some family members to reduce their meat consumption even a tiniest amount gets a huge amount of resistance. People aren't going to give up their meat: they may not even b…

Faced with a choice between beef or fake beef that tastes exactly the same, most people will just go for the real beef. They don't want the highly processed fake stuff that contains who knows what. The only way beef loses is if the alternatives are significantly cheaper. If a McBeef is $5 more than a McFakeBeef then you got a shot at converting people.

But what if it's not "highly processed" due to advancements in tech? Personally I would always choose the fake (lab grown or plant based) over the real meat. Real meat and three industrial farming process just has too many ways that the product is prone to contamination, not even to mention the cruelty/ethics. I say this as an avid meat eater as well. I love the taste of meat but I'd switch in a heartbeat once there's an alternative that compares.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#322

Post by gordaco »

6nf wrote: post #304
pascalxus wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the only way #6 will come true is if the replacement for meat looks, smells and tastes exactly like the real thing and it'll have to be cheaper too. People all over the world love meat, especially US, UK and the Chinese. I've tried to convince some family members to reduce their meat consumption even a tiniest amount gets a huge amount of resistance. People aren't going to give up their meat: they may not even b…

Faced with a choice between beef or fake beef that tastes exactly the same, most people will just go for the real beef. They don't want the highly processed fake stuff that contains who knows what. The only way beef loses is if the alternatives are significantly cheaper. If a McBeef is $5 more than a McFakeBeef then you got a shot at converting people.

You are being downvoted, but I think that you are totally right. For an awful lot of people, eating meat is a matter of status; it's similar to why many people prefer having big cars even if they are less environmentally friendly.

There is also the fact that plant based diets are still associated to certain ideologies and because of that they will keep being scoffed at by people from opposing ideologies. Sure, you don't have to lean left to be vegan, but the vast majority of vegan people, or people seriously trying to reduce their meat consumption, do lean left (continuing with the car analogy: remember the rolling coal fad).

Dietary choices go way beyond their nutritional value. People feel attached to what they eat, and they will resist change. So, yes, a strong economic incentive is needed, and even worse, it might not be enough.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#323

Post by a10c »

jayd16 wrote: post #231
mymythisisthis wrote: post #126

All cars will be required to have dashcams. Either by insurance companies or by governments. All cars will be required to have GPS, and be tracked in real time. This is already the case with the majority of commercial vehicles. Incremental steps in autonomous cars, first starting with 'drone' cars. Cars and trucks that are operated from a remote location. This will be piggy backed on existing technology. Cheap camera…

I really doubt dashcams and gps will be required in the next decade but I bet installing them will get you a discount of some kind.

I'd be surprised if cars didn't come with cameras built-in as a standard. Think Tesla Sentry mode.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#324

Post by bouncycastle »

Baeocystin wrote: post #292
joyjoyjoy wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months." Wrong Chinese people are very happy. In some rankings they belong to the happiest people. Here they are medium range: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/09/10... My prediction: We will see an economic depression, also caused by energy problems. The current quantitative easing is actually the first sign of the p…

"How's life in soviet russia?" "Can't complain!" This is the mistake you're making regarding China. Source: grew up there

Exactly. To say that you're unhappy is frowned upon. I'd assume in China it's both politically and also socially steming from confucianism, (i.e. against upsetting the harmony).

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#325

Post by jackcosgrove »

I too dream of a decentralized internet and especially decentralized cloud resources, but I can't find a way around the question of how you securely host a database on some random person's idle computer/"spot instance". If that data is compromised, who do you sue? The random person who has no assets?

Data security ultimately depends on secure physical access to the hosting hardware. Not everything can or should be put in a public database, so you need physical security. Cloud providers provide physical security plus trustworthiness due to their reputations, as well as deep pockets to sue if something goes wrong.

Most industries end up with only a few competing firms. Why would cloud computing be different? I'm open to solutions on data security.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#326

Post by smileysteve »

jayd16 wrote: post #231
mymythisisthis wrote: post #126

All cars will be required to have dashcams. Either by insurance companies or by governments. All cars will be required to have GPS, and be tracked in real time. This is already the case with the majority of commercial vehicles. Incremental steps in autonomous cars, first starting with 'drone' cars. Cars and trucks that are operated from a remote location. This will be piggy backed on existing technology. Cheap camera…

I really doubt dashcams and gps will be required in the next decade but I bet installing them will get you a discount of some kind.

It's arguable that dashcams are "required" now as insurance in many ways already. At least as much as adequately insuring your vehicle, and arguable to reduce the likelihood of police abuse.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#327

Post by joyjoyjoy »

Baeocystin wrote: post #292
joyjoyjoy wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months." Wrong Chinese people are very happy. In some rankings they belong to the happiest people. Here they are medium range: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/09/10... My prediction: We will see an economic depression, also caused by energy problems. The current quantitative easing is actually the first sign of the p…

"How's life in soviet russia?" "Can't complain!" This is the mistake you're making regarding China. Source: grew up there

"How's life in China?"

"Great!"

Source: I live there!

This is the mistake you're making regarding stuff you have no idea of.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#328

Post by jaggirs »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #325

I too dream of a decentralized internet and especially decentralized cloud resources, but I can't find a way around the question of how you securely host a database on some random person's idle computer/"spot instance". If that data is compromised, who do you sue? The random person who has no assets? Data security ultimately depends on secure physical access to the hosting hardware. Not everything can or should be pu…

1. Data Redundancy

2. Encryption

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#329

Post by magduf »

cleandreams wrote: post #29

In my view being optimistic about the future is in conflict with believing that China will become the dominant power. There are many concerning signals from China, not least the situation of Muslims and also the surveillance state. There is much we don't know about the true situation of debt, public and private, in China.

>There are many concerning signals from China, not least the situation of Muslims and also the surveillance state.

Why is the situation with Muslims concerning for China? For Muslims and for anyone who cares about human rights, sure, it's concerning, but it does not follow at all that this is bad for China. The US became the dominant power despite having slavery longer than any western nation, and then having Jim Crow laws for a full century afterwards, including during the post-WWII economic boom.

I would argue that, unfortunately, there is no evidence that treating your minorities well is necessary for economic success. In fact, it may be the opposite. Ancient Rome did quite well while having slavery, after all.

As for the surveillance state, here we don't really have a lot of historical precedent. Obviously it didn't work out too well for the Warsaw Pact nations, particularly East Germany, but what they're doing in China really isn't like that.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#330

Post by cesarb »

Symmetry wrote: post #293
chillacy wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the numbers nuclear is very safe but it does have asymmetric risk and most importantly a bad reputation. Next gen nuclear should be a marketing rebrand in addition to new tech. So Yang is right to focus on thorium.

Is the asymmetric risk really any worse than hydro-electric, though? The Banquiao Dam failure killed something like an order of magnitude more people than Chernobyl. And there was the recent Oroville Dam incident which didn't kill anyone but it came pretty close to failing catastrophically.

> Is the asymmetric risk really any worse than hydro-electric, though?

Yes.

You are only looking at the immediate damage. After the dust settles, with a worst-case nuclear accident you have a heavily contaminated area which cannot be resettled for a long time; after a worst-case hydroelectric accident, you have mostly only water and mud, and can start rebuilding almost immediately.

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