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What Will Happen in the 2020s

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181–190 of 692 posts

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#181
post #17

> We will see nuclear power make a resurgence around the world, particularly smaller reactors that are easier to build and safer to operate. Funny, I was digging into this issue just this morning. One family member supports Andrew Yang, but another won't support anyone who advocates for nuclear power. Despite Thorium not being fully proven yet, I lean toward agreement with Yang: https://en.howtruthful.com/o/nuclear_p…

I support nuclear power, however I doubt we will ever see many more reactors built in most countries. The growth of photovoltaic solar power combined with coming cheaper grid scale battery storage is going to wreck the economics for nuclear (including fusion if it ever works).

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many were alive when the Soviet Union and the Iron Curtain fell. That makes such large upheavals believable. The weakness of authoritarian regimes is that by their nature dissention is hidden. Those in charge aren't really aware of how far they're overshooting until it's too late to release some of the pressure. I don't understand Chinese culture or their current situation enough to say whether or not they're in dang…

Not to me. Soviet Union's fall was a very unique set of events, some unique to the time and sweep of history, some just plain unique. It was a combination of the right leaders, Chernobyl, fallout from WW2 divisions such as the Baltic States Molotov Pact protests, and Solidarity and Lech Walesa in Poland, then the right chain of events over a decade. Many of those Soviet Republics were very reluctant participants, for…

Yeah, when China breaks down again, it will be for very unique reasons, singular for their time and place, and dependent on a few very good or bad political decisions.

When has social change ever not been unique?

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#184
post #162

The predictions about China are a little confusing. I know they’ve copied lots of foreign tech, but have they demonstrated any ability to source original research and development that had no external links? This read a little like what China would want the 2020s to look like.

Does it matter? They're a manufacturing powerhouse and have a government in place that can (and has shown willingness to) take long term bets that are in the interest of their country.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>China will fall >Saudi will have a violent revolution Very very unfortunately, this sounds more like wishful thinking than a reasonable prediction. The truly troublesome part is that predictions about social phenomenon can be self-fulfilling prophesy. If you basically want to see a bloody revolution instead of a better solution, that actively increases the odds of it happening.

The best the world can hope for Saudi Arabia is the status quo. As authoritarian and barbaric as they are, the problem is, Saudi's internal opposition isn't some liberal freedom lovers – it's much more radical religious fanatics that would turn the country in (in essence) ISIS, but with oil and wealth. The reason modern western leaders support house of Saud isn't that they're the good guys. They're just the best of w…

>The reason modern western leaders support house of Saud isn't that they're the good guys. They're just the best of what all realistic possibilities in the region, unfortunately.

I doubt it. Saud family were interested in fighting the Ottomans, as were the British in WW1, and their interests aligned then. And during WW2, once it was found to provide access to oil, it only made sense for the west to make sure a stable regime was established. The US/Brits support the Sauds in whatever they want to do, and the Sauds provide oil and purchase weapons. Keeps the region nice and unstable for future weapons orders and to prevent a situation like Norway where the oil wealth is distributed to everyone and no longer able to be controlled by a handful of people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Saud#Origins_and_earl...

For further proof, the more modern socially liberal Iran was destabilized in favor of a fundamentalist leader by the US for their refusal to play ball:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhollah_Khomeini#Khomeini's_c...

It's just business, it's easier to deal with a small country's king than a democracy.

This is a good book about the circumstances that result in the modern situation:

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/64594.A_History_of_the_M...

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#186
I think the climate is going to change much faster than any models predict, like 3-4x faster, because we went past the tipping point about 30 years ago.

Phytoplankton populations will crash out in the next 10 years and the marine food chain will collapse.

Extreme wether patterns are going to completely disrupt food production, which will cause mass starvation and a global immigration/refugee crisis.

In the U.S., the terrified of everything elderly, and right wing will go for less freedom and more authoritative government control. They will also secede more control to corporations as a way of avoiding “big government”, effectively handing over power special interests and the ultra wealthy.

Healthcare will however become nationalized because the system as it stands is out of control and therE is no way to reign it in, so costs will keep spiraling up until the system breaks.

Marijuana will get legalized in most states, and the percentage of THC will start to get capped.

Designer CRIsPR “therapies” will become popular.

The U.S. college system have a major event, costs are spiraling out of control, and the colleges have no way to stop the cost growth, students are becoming more accustomed to online classes, in the next 10 years there will be a mass realignment of the U.S. college system, just like banking, healthcare. A lot of closures, mergers and partnerships. A commoditization of higher education, which will be good for some majors, like STEM, and really bad for majors that are more “subjective”. I also think we’ll see incorporation of what is seen as traditional “trade school” skills. Learning is learning, and is the schools can make it profitable, “why not?”.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Immigration will make both of these things less of an issue. It will create increasing political tensions.

immigration requires opportunity, and opportunity is becoming increasingly scarce in europe. it's more likely, lots of capital will be reallocated towards the growing parts of africa

Immigration doesn't require opportunity if you're fleeing from drug cartels or islamist death squads.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#188

All cars will be required to have dashcams. Either by insurance companies or by governments. All cars will be required to have GPS, and be tracked in real time. This is already the case with the majority of commercial vehicles. Incremental steps in autonomous cars, first starting with 'drone' cars. Cars and trucks that are operated from a remote location. This will be piggy backed on existing technology. Cheap camera…

The GPS thing is unlikely, what would be the rationale of that? This would be a very unpopular policy.

The rationale is taxation. As more cars go electric they have to replace the gasoline tax.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when Second Life was predicted to transform everything from Education to basic human interaction.

It would be great if somebody could link to an analysis of what happened with Second Life. I remember the early hype, but then read a few interviews with users/losers who were just escaping reality.

What happened: nobody needed it.

Too slow (latency is inevitable), too limiting, too hard to do or show anything non-trivial.

You could do interesting things if you put it a lot of time. But few have the time to spend on unclear benefits.

Re: What Will Happen in the 2020s

#190
post #45

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