Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the point is that if #3 backfires at a particular company where you're interviewing, then you probably don't really want to be working for/with those people anyway.
Yeah but unless you're some rockstar engineer living in a high demand area with lots of quality job openings you can quickly find yourself running out of quality options with this strategy backfiring a lot since the top employers can also afford to be as selective as you and go for someone else without your "baggage" . Just keep your dirty laundry private would be my advice.
so, i struggle to see how hiding it is better from a game theory perspective. i do acknowledge that if your resume is strong enough as to "speak for itself", then not mentioning it is a reasonable enough gamble-- if they don't bring it up, and reject you anyway, then they are clearly idiots you don't want to work for anyway.
well, i guess I talked myself into a bit of a circle, but i guess i retain the claim that the prior of "hiding your baggage in all circumstances" is a bit more conservative than i think one needs to be.