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Wall Street Firm Uses Algorithms to Make Sports Betting Like Stock Trading

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Re: Wall Street Firm Uses Algorithms to Make Sports Betting Like Stock Trading

#4
How is this news? Have they not heard of Betfair, which has been allowing this kind of thing since 2000?

The only thing required to make betting like a market is for the gambler to be able to take the bookie's side as well. Many bookie's use Betfair to hedge their positions in fact.

In financial markets terms, a gambler is much like a prop trader. They're betting on a particular position. That position, unlike a more traditional financial instrument, will be the outcome of a race, game, etc. But this isn't really all that different to, say, betting on oil futures.

A bookie on the other hand operates much like a spread trader. They (try to) take a neutral position and just make money on the spread as the difference in the odds between taking and making a bet is really a bid-ask spread.

Re: Wall Street Firm Uses Algorithms to Make Sports Betting Like Stock Trading

#5
Cantor Fitzgerald, the firm in the article, previously tried to create a market in box office futures:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/business/media/08futures.h...

Cantor is a brokerage firm at heart -- I dealt with them frequently when I worked on Wall Street. Their entire reason for existence is to match buyers and sellers, and take a cut of the transaction. More markets to do so means more money for Cantor.

Re: Wall Street Firm Uses Algorithms to Make Sports Betting Like Stock Trading

#6
post #4

How is this news? Have they not heard of Betfair, which has been allowing this kind of thing since 2000? The only thing required to make betting like a market is for the gambler to be able to take the bookie's side as well. Many bookie's use Betfair to hedge their positions in fact. In financial markets terms, a gambler is much like a prop trader. They're betting on a particular position. That position, unlike a more…

American sports wagering - Vegas in particular - has been pretty behind the times until recently. Vegas betting has been limited, partly due to software, partly due to it being "the way", to pretty basic betting. Handicap, head to head, totals, basic propositions.

In run betting is huge in Asia, especially on football (soccer). As the article mentions, sports betting has never been a focus of the casinos. New kinds of betting will hopefully change that.

Re: Wall Street Firm Uses Algorithms to Make Sports Betting Like Stock Trading

#7
post #4

How is this news? Have they not heard of Betfair, which has been allowing this kind of thing since 2000? The only thing required to make betting like a market is for the gambler to be able to take the bookie's side as well. Many bookie's use Betfair to hedge their positions in fact. In financial markets terms, a gambler is much like a prop trader. They're betting on a particular position. That position, unlike a more…

> Have they not heard of Betfair, which has been allowing this kind of thing since 2000?

Is Betfair really the same thing? Everything I heard about it while reading about prediction markets made it sound like the Vegas bookies that Cantor is being contrasted against - a limited set of bets run at specific times. Not arbitrary dynamically-generated bets at arbitrary times in the game. To me, that's quite different. Like the difference between a video game which is a shooter on rails, and _Halo_ with decent AI bots fighting you.

Re: Wall Street Firm Uses Algorithms to Make Sports Betting Like Stock Trading

#8
I've been to the M Casino. It's not entirely unique, because other casinos are adding the "in game" betting using the same system, which was rolled out initially at the M. This is very different from the normal sports betting because you can bet during the game. Traditional bookmaking will take bets before an event (sometimes even a long time before, for example, the winner of next year's Super Bowl is already a bet you can make in Vegas) but not during it.

I am not sure if a "in game" system ever existing before in Las Vegas casinos to the extent that the M is doing it. The gambling radio shows seem to think it's a novel thing.

I should add that this market (sports gambling) has long had "traders" (people looking to arbitrage games and do other technical actions), "brokers" (people who tell you what to bet on, similar to a stock broker) and "value" players (in the betting case this is guys who look for an imbalance in value, undervalued positions usually caused by too many people betting on one side of a game, similar to Buffet looking for undervalued companies). Recently, I've heard of one of these brokers advertising themselves as an investment group, particularly to the extent that insider trading isn't illegal in gambling (for example, if you have better information on the seriousness of a injury to a key player you have inside information, but instead of it being illegal as it would be in the stock market, it's actively encouraged).

This market is huge. I heard on the radio that Vegas did ~$85 million in bets on the Super Bowl alone.

As a final note, if you don't think you're gambling when you put money into the stock market, then I'm not sure what to tell you.

Re: Wall Street Firm Uses Algorithms to Make Sports Betting Like Stock Trading

#9
post #7
post #4

How is this news? Have they not heard of Betfair, which has been allowing this kind of thing since 2000? The only thing required to make betting like a market is for the gambler to be able to take the bookie's side as well. Many bookie's use Betfair to hedge their positions in fact. In financial markets terms, a gambler is much like a prop trader. They're betting on a particular position. That position, unlike a more…

> Have they not heard of Betfair, which has been allowing this kind of thing since 2000? Is Betfair really the same thing? Everything I heard about it while reading about prediction markets made it sound like the Vegas bookies that Cantor is being contrasted against - a limited set of bets run at specific times. Not arbitrary dynamically-generated bets at arbitrary times in the game. To me, that's quite different. Li…

In running and peer to peer betting (Betfair style) are indeed different. You can place in run (live) bets on Betfair.

Interesting anecdote, apparently Betfair had one of the busiest Oracle installs on the planet. They were (are?) creating some pretty neat infrastructure to get away from it: http://www.infoq.com/presentations/matt-youill-betfair-flywh...

Re: Wall Street Firm Uses Algorithms to Make Sports Betting Like Stock Trading

#10

I've been to the M Casino. It's not entirely unique, because other casinos are adding the "in game" betting using the same system, which was rolled out initially at the M. This is very different from the normal sports betting because you can bet during the game. Traditional bookmaking will take bets before an event (sometimes even a long time before, for example, the winner of next year's Super Bowl is already a bet…

Its also important to note that Vegas is one of the few places in the US where sports betting is actually legal. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_gambling#United_States
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