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The Two Kinds of Moderate

paulgraham.com

61–70 of 382 posts

Re: The Two Kinds of Moderate

#61
post #44

The famous MLK speech on moderates: http://www.africa.upenn.edu/Articles_Gen/Letter_Birmingham.h... > First, I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is…

It may be an unpopular view, but I disliked this quote ever since I saw it. There is value in order. In particular, there is value in order over justice, when justice is pursued with scorched earth tactics that risk leaving everyone worse off, even those that were meant to be helped.

To use a perhaps extreme example: there's lots of injustice happening right now in China, and not a lot can be done directly to fix it. Are the people seeking justice willing to risk a nuclear war with China just to force changes? Would that help anything?

I worry about this, because I see that quote (along with an abuse of Popper's paradox of tolerance) thrown around a lot these days, by people who I don't at all trust to be of good will. The times we're living in are of great potential, but they're also incredibly fragile. Too much pressure, too much disruption, and the civilization may break down - which means not just rolling back a good thousand years of progress, but also leaving the next hundred or thousand generations stuck in these conditions on a thoroughly broken planet. You can't just reboot a technological civilization. Which makes me think that there is a solid argument to be made for minding the order, and not jumping to extreme action in pursuit of justice.

EDIT: I suppose this may be the "accidental moderate's" answer to the complaint about "intentional moderates". It's not about unwillingness to commit, or being extremely conflict-averse, or trying to appeal to all sides of the issue. It's about refusing to engage in actions - or call to actions - that lead to too much of collateral damage.

Re: The Two Kinds of Moderate

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do see a difference, and the piece I quoted seems to me to be the latter: redefinition. I say that, in part, because substituting those meanings changes the perceived message of the piece. If the rest of the essay reasonably supported that reading, I might well agree that this was interpretation, analysis, or even clarification. However, it seems as though the original comment is working backward from pg's identity…

If you believe reading meaning into a text is redefinition - saying a text is trying to redefine things when the text doesn't use that precise word, is also redefinition.

"Reading meaning into a text" is pretty much the definition of redefinition. You don't "read meaning into" anything as a part of a honest analysis.

Re: The Two Kinds of Moderate

#63
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not convinced there are any intentional moderates. Well, I know tons of those. People in journalism, and other high profile public related posts, are often such. They don't want to offend any side, and reap the benefits of both. Some politicians are also like that. I know people in media personally who have more extreme positions in private talks, but their public opinions are carefully calculated to advance th…

While "I met a guy, didn't like him, I think this is why" is a bit too dismissive, your dismissal of a desire for factual data is disturbing. One person's experience, no matter how broad for an individual, is still just one individual's anecdotal experience. This is true even if they have a sharp mind, decades of experience, and the best credentials. The principles of fact checking and bias analysis should not be rel…

>While "I met a guy, didn't like him, I think this is why" is a bit too dismissive, your dismissal of a desire for factual data is disturbing.

I find the over-reliance on second hand ("factual") data, charts and figures, disturbing.

People have to learn to observe, think, and understand themselves.

Not just passively consume pre-made charts and statistics (which are the easiest thing to manipulate). And learning how to spot BS statistical claims wont help when the raw data can be themselves cherry-picked, manipulated, and diced in tons of ways.

Not to mention that live experience is 360 (if one tries), where data will always paint less than the whole picture. One could arrange for great "official" charts and figures for every country -- and most countries do. Unless one gets on the field and talk to the people on the street and the workplace, and try to check the reality in various situations, they can have a totally BS picture painted for them by the statistics and "factual data".

>One person's experience, no matter how broad for an individual, is still just one individual's anecdotal experience.

Well, you're not 10000 people. You're just one, like everyone else is. In the end, whatever you're fed or read or watch, you have to make up your mind for yourself.

>The principles of fact checking and bias analysis should not be relegated solely to academia.

Nor should fact checking and bias analysis start and begin with data people are handed down from official or other sources. Those can range from perfectly accurate to badly compiled to totally and mischievously misleading (for saving face, incompetence, for profit, etc).

If you lived in USSR, would you trust the official data, or you would try to balance things and do direct observation?

You shouldn't blindly trust "facts" and "figures" anywhere else either...

Re: The Two Kinds of Moderate

#64
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not convinced there are any intentional moderates. Well, I know tons of those. People in journalism, and other high profile public related posts, are often such. They don't want to offend any side, and reap the benefits of both. Some politicians are also like that. I know people in media personally who have more extreme positions in private talks, but their public opinions are carefully calculated to advance th…

While "I met a guy, didn't like him, I think this is why" is a bit too dismissive, your dismissal of a desire for factual data is disturbing. One person's experience, no matter how broad for an individual, is still just one individual's anecdotal experience. This is true even if they have a sharp mind, decades of experience, and the best credentials. The principles of fact checking and bias analysis should not be rel…

PG's essay isn't presenting itself as a scientific work presenting a theory. It's just one man's opinion. But 'arh68 above seems to be interpreting it as if it was such a scientific work.

Re: The Two Kinds of Moderate

#65
post #24

I'm not convinced there are any intentional moderates. Isn't this just one big straw man? Noticeable lack of specifics, not even historical figures. Honestly it comes off like "I met a guy, didn't like him, I think this is why". I think there's definitely something to the idea, but I wouldn't carve up the world into These People and Those People. If anything, we're more like calico cats and we all exhibit both behavi…

Well, it is christmas, so I am at home with family and relatives with many different opinions and life experiences and to navigate that jungle I have to confess, yes, the last few days I was an intentional moderate. Also at work.

Re: The Two Kinds of Moderate

#66
post #45
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way do you think the Democrats have switched focus?

Increased focus on racial and sexual minorities to the exclusion of working-class interests (which has been going on for decades), spilling over into outright contempt of lower- and middle- class whites (which has mostly become prominent in the past 10-15 years).

You've got that all wrong. The former didn't happen and didn't spill over into the latter, the Democratic Party abandoned working class interests (not just “white working class”) pretty sharply after Clinton's election. It didn't really accelerate on the other fronts, it just didn't back off of them as hard because racial/sexual/etc. equality is compatible with the center-right neoliberal capitalist economics that became the focus of the new dominant faction of the Party.

OTOH, there's evidence that that faction of the party is losing dominance to one focussed on working class interests again.

Re: The Two Kinds of Moderate

#67
post #23
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think another way to slice this is, if you think of the Overton window shifting along the axis of time, the “accidental moderate” does not shift their opinion by the same factor as the ends of the window shift. You can see this with the Republicans who turned into Democrats once the Republicans shifted far enough right that there were no more Rockefeller Republicans and Bill Clinton ran as a Democrat. If you're a…

> You can see this with the Republicans who turned into Democrats once the Republicans shifted far enough right that there were no more Rockefeller Republicans and Bill Clinton ran as a Democrat. If you're an accidental moderate, you run the risk of involuntarily changing party affiliation. I think this is interesting because it's been exactly the opposite for me and many of the people I know. At some point over the…

> At some point over the past ten or fifteen years, the Democrats switched their focus

Clinton was elected on explicit Third Way positions nearly 30 years ago. If you think something changed in the past 10-15, you're falling for GOP propaganda. What you're noticing is the democrats finding a new base a decade after losing their working class supporters, through a combination of Third Way politics, the Republican Southern Strategy. The GOP saw this coming and stoked / capitulated to increasing racist elements of the party during Obama's presidency. This is the only major change in the past decade.

(Well, the democrats aren't really that smart - it's not so much they're finding a new base as they're left with the ones the new GOP ideology intentionally excludes. As a party, they are doing a terrible job mobilizing this!)

Re: The Two Kinds of Moderate

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you believe reading meaning into a text is redefinition - saying a text is trying to redefine things when the text doesn't use that precise word, is also redefinition.

"Reading meaning into a text" is pretty much the definition of redefinition. You don't "read meaning into" anything as a part of a honest analysis.

> "Reading meaning into a text" is pretty much the definition of redefinition.

What changes about the definition of "impressive" if I think someone uses that word to refer exclusively to rich people?

Re: The Two Kinds of Moderate

#69
post #45
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way do you think the Democrats have switched focus?

Increased focus on racial and sexual minorities to the exclusion of working-class interests (which has been going on for decades), spilling over into outright contempt of lower- and middle- class whites (which has mostly become prominent in the past 10-15 years).

> Increased focus on racial and sexual minorities to the exclusion of working-class interests

Are these actually in conflict? Are they also not part of the working class? What sort of policies do you think should have been enacted against this?

Re: The Two Kinds of Moderate

#70
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> OP: In the 20th century, a lot of very smart people were Marxists — just no one who was smart about the subjects Marxism involves. In 40 years, the USSR, whose economy was about the size of Brazil's in 1917, and who waged a civil war and repelled two waves of invasions (the first of which included an invasion by the USA after WWI) - this country under Stalin had enormous economic growth, to where it could repel an…

> he first of which included an invasion by the USA after WWI I'm not familiar with this event? > this country under Stalin had enormous economic growth Ironically this is the same argument used by capitalists and colonialists when they claim that a huge body count or deliberate famine was "worth it".

Probably this?

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/fact-america-actu...

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