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Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

reuters.com

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Re: Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

#541
post #114

Boeing was still promising end of year FAA certification for 737 Max as recently as early December. Around that time, they had a spokesperson on CNBC who was asked directly how the outstanding steps (which indicated February at the earliest) aligned with their end of year statements and the position was essentially, 'we've been saying end of year and end of year could still happen.' When your brand is suffering a cri…

> When your brand is suffering a crisis of confidence, you don't rebuild it by missing deadlines and dodging reality. has worked for Elon, and now his stock is trading at an all time high. $420

But he is saving the world by filling it with toxic batteries and ugly trucks

Haven't you heard?

Re: Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

#542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, yes, it is definitely reasonable to draw that conclusion based on people's disinclination to spend 100% the fare for a 10% larger, somewhat less uncomfortable seat, and/or 1000% the fare for 50% more space and an actually comfortable seat.

You seem to have left out Premium Economy class that’s available on many (most?) airlines. Personally, I tend to opt for that fare class as I find the seat more tolerable at a reasonable price point.

Premium economy is still usually at least 2x the economy ticket price; on a long haul that will cost many hundreds to up to thousands extra.

What you’re probably thinking of is the US airline specific “comfort/extra/plus” add-on that is priced 10%-20% extra. There is a few more inches legroom but the seats are the same small economy seats.

Re: Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

#543
post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The prices does not scale up too well for the travelers, but for the airlines. The extra that you get does not match the huge jump in price.

Premium economy / economy plus seem to scale pretty well. Most of the times I’ve booked it’s been about 10% extra in cost for about 10% space on the plane. E.g 34 inches instead of 31 inches of pitch.

To be clear, premium economy and economy+ are different things.

The former uses larger seats and is typically available on long-hauls. The seat is somewhat similar to old-style business class seats, or modern domestic first class seats. It is not priced at 10% extra, it is usually close to double.

The latter is priced at around 10% extra, but is the same old economy seat just with a couple of inches more legroom.

It would be nice to have to pay only 10% extra to get 10% more space, but the lack of scaling is by design on the airlines part, and textbook market segmentation.

Edit: this article has pictures showing the difference: https://www.cntraveler.com/story/whats-the-difference-betwee...

Re: Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

#544

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is fair. When a test fails you would also expect them to repeat the test before putting humans on, we will see if that happens.

The article in the Washington Post hinted that NASA might not require them to pass this particular test (automated approach to the ISS and docking). "It was unclear whether NASA would require Boeing to fly another test mission without crews onboard before allowing its astronauts to fly in the Starliner. Bridenstine said he wouldn’t rule out a mission with crews onboard, pointing out that the space shuttle had been pi…

During the post-event interview it was asked if testing docking was a hard requirement for NASA (with the implication the test would have to be redone before acceptance). The answer was no. If NASA wants this to be a new requirement they would likely have to pay extra for it

Re: Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

#545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know the smell of gas? That's the smell of 300 souls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_London_School_explosion Pretty much all safety measures are written in blood.

I knew natural gas had an additive so we could smell it, but I didn't realize it came on the heals of this disaster. I guess that makes sense though. We have culturally evolved to care more about physical safety today; a good sign that our State worked by being held accountable to people. The stuff that is happening with Boeing is a total regression, and it will be interesting to see how regressions like this can be…

My learning of this, if you're interested, probably traces to about 19 December 2016. Researching the Texas Railroad Commission. Whose name is ... somewhat deceptive. Briefly mentioned, I believe (I need to re-watch it) this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3X5bWrlA04Q&app=desktop

I'd mentioned it on G+ on the date, in comments (I've a full archive on my own systems, but at least the post survives at the Internet Archive):

https://web.archive.org/web/20190115030822/https://plus.goog...

Brought up as well on this post (also not in a captured comment):

https://web.archive.org/web/20190115024757/https://plus.goog...

Re: Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

#546
post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> remove seat cushions on the locomotives A very short-sighted action. Driver seats are not like passenger seats, the drivers will strike if they are discomforted by the seat.

Train driver is one of the best jobs in the train business, one that takes 10+ years to step into (more demand than jobs.. goes up the union ladder). Complaints at that level will be rare and replacements can be found easily.

[deleted]

Re: Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

#547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Older, yes. Generally not less safe (and certainly safer than the Max8 right now). Usually more expensive - less fuel-efficient engines, maybe up against C/D maintenance checks, maybe less efficient cabin layout, etc.

but what do all these airplanes do most of the time? I would think right now a lot more airlines and leasing than usual. (I could be wrong). that would mean that a lot of the airplanes are standing still most of the time. (I realize they would rotate, so a single plane was not being unsued for very long) Whoever usually leases them are they out of luck now?

As I understand it, a little bit of everything was done to make up for the shortfall:

1. Spare capacity was used. This makes scheduling tighter and maintenance costs go up.

2. New routes and extra flights that were going to be added to the schedule, weren't.

3. Planes that likely would have gotten parked rather than go through another C/D check instead got the overhaul and are still flying.

4. Carriers that were trying to consolidate types, still fly whatever they were trying to get rid of (or have brought them back into service).

5. Carriers leased planes and probably brought some parked planes back online.

Airlines were lucky in that there weren't that many Max8's in service yet (which also speaks to how unsafe they were to rack up 2 crashes so early), so the grounding didn't eliminate that much capacity as delay planned growth and retirement of airframes.

There is also more spare capacity than you might expect because the fleets are sized for peak operations - thanksgiving, christmas, etc. The rest of the year, the extra capacity allows them to get by with fewer active maintenance people (peak demand vs average demand).

Similarly, there are probably more parked planes than you expect. Again, they are usually up against a C/D check and that check will only get done if it looks like that airframe can earn back the couple $million that the overhaul would cost. The engines usually stay in general circulation and again, smooth out the peak/average maintenance demand.

Re: Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

#548
post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it does? These are known engineering problems with known engineering solutions. The explanation from Boeing was that a timer was set incorrectly. This sounds like a trivial error to me (though I'm not a "rocket scientist" just a "kerbal scientist", I guess, but we've been using timers for a long time afaik to properly manage burns to orbit).

The procedures and how software systems handle changes to launch time are members of the set of hundreds of thousands of choices made during design and implementation that need to be validated. Yes, they feel like a "silly mistake" but ultimately most things that lead to failure will be in that category.

Or, in other words, getting to space is hard because it requires millions of opportunities for silly mistakes.

Most complex engineering projects are hard not because of one thing, but because of the mind-bogglingly large number of things that must all be done correctly.

(1 - x) ^ y, where x is the chance of each small mistake and y is the total number of opportunities, doesn't need a very large x, if y is large enough, for things to start looking dicey.

Re: Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

#549
post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boeing stock price today is 337.55. In Jan 2009, it was $42. That's a 8x return. SP500 closed at 3221 today. In Jan 2009, it was about $890 and that is only a 3.6x return. Hindsight is 20/20, but you might've been even happier if you kept all your 401k in Boeing.

You've gotta play considering the probabilities, not score things after the fact based on the realised outcome. To a first approximation it's a good idea to not have any significant part of your wealth coupled to your employment, to avoid situation where a failing company destroys both your employment income stream and your investments in a single event. C.f. Enron employees with company stock...

Yeah exactly. At the time there was no way to predict the future, and it seems ridiculously risky to put a big chunk of my substantial 401k match into my employer.

Re: Boeing CEO ousted as 737 Max crisis deepens

#550
post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The prices does not scale up too well for the travelers, but for the airlines. The extra that you get does not match the huge jump in price.

Premium economy / economy plus seem to scale pretty well. Most of the times I’ve booked it’s been about 10% extra in cost for about 10% space on the plane. E.g 34 inches instead of 31 inches of pitch.

I once got an economy plus seat at a bulkhead and had to stow my laptop bag somewhere behind me. I'd rather squeeze into economy than pay extra for having no way to kill time but wonder whether it'll be stolen.
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