Earlier quoted context omitted.
> statistically unlikely to pay off > probabilities involved with your decision While this is a good general approach to life IMHO as well — if you mean "be rational, not just emotional" and "work on your cognitive biases, seek objectivity" — it might also prove terribly counterproductive in this context. It would take a book or five but briefly: - you just can't use statistics when they say "95% fail", otherwise you…
You just can't use statistics when they say "95% fail", otherwise you just don't do startups, ever. With that mindset, joining an established company is more likely to "succeed" for you and maximize serenity. Actually, you certainly can do that. Most people do. And depending on what you're optimizing for, it seems pretty rational to me. Another stat for you: most entrepreneurs fail "about twice" before making it, i.e…
What I meant however was a bit meta: those who are deeply cut for entrepreneurship and startups are not motivated by money first or even at all; they thus don't and shouldn't care about statistics aiming at maximizing personal benefit... to a founder, "personal benefit" is more about getting things done, creating the dream. They'd rather optimize for long-term success (the kind that's much harder to take away from you, that creates real value).
Wealth, personal or collective, is but a consequence of a successful economic endeavor. As an employee, you'd choose to work for a startup because there's something in it that corporations money can't buy for you. There's no bet if you already believe in the work, you will get what you want every single day on the job. Different values, different goals, different rewards for different people I guess.