Earlier quoted context omitted.
> statistically unlikely to pay off > probabilities involved with your decision While this is a good general approach to life IMHO as well — if you mean "be rational, not just emotional" and "work on your cognitive biases, seek objectivity" — it might also prove terribly counterproductive in this context. It would take a book or five but briefly: - you just can't use statistics when they say "95% fail", otherwise you…
- another stat for you: most entrepreneurs fail "about twice" before making it, i.e. you'll probably fail 1-3 times for sure before entering the 5% of those who create a profitable business. Trick #1, thus: you can roll the dice several times (consider 2-5 years per "real try"). I've never heard of this stat. Seems like a case of survivorship bias more than anything else. For every entrepreneur that "made it" on thei…
Average is ~3 times, and your typical successful business (across sectors) takes ~2 years in "survival mode" (most don't make it past that mark), then 3 more (~5Y total) before things may feel "sustainable", cruising.
So indeed, we are not all considering those who don't make it in this picture. Creating a business is hard, very hard.