When will the Netherlands disappear? • Hacker News Board

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#111

Post by 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 » Wed, Dec 18, 2019, 4:26 PM UTC

blunte wrote: post #23

I find it a bit ironic given the MIT climate simulator on HN yesterday - the biggest impact (in that simulator) to climate change was the land/agriculture methane. Right now the Dutch farmers are again harassing the country with their tractors on public roads, angry about what they feel is undue pressure to reduce their emissions. Maybe they'll get one or two more generations of farming as they hasten their own demis…

> Meanwhile, since NL has failed significantly to meet EU (nitrogen) emissions requirements - almost entirely because of mass agriculture - there's a freeze on building housing, roads, etc. Oh and the country-wide max speed limit will be limited down to 100kph starting Jan 1 (which I don't mind so terribly, but many people do mind).

And all of their efforts combined, even if it were 100% successful, will be a drop in the bucket of the emissions coming from China.

The farmers are right to protest pointless austerity measures, especially since they’re growing food to keep people alive.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#112

Post by pocket_titan » Wed, Dec 18, 2019, 4:28 PM UTC

I think the tagline is misleading, especially the part that says "Now climate change is threatening to flood it completely". The example they use (of Noorderwaard being "given back to the water") is a result of the "Ruimte voor de Rivier" (Room for the River, verbatim) programme, and the implication is that these policies are necessary due to sea level rise caused by climate change. But that's not completely true!

The Netherlands has a very well-protected coast (after the big flood of 1953 the Delta Works were built to prevent coastal flooding from ever happening again on such a scale), so coastal flooding isn't that big of a threat. And while it's true that rising sea-levels imply a rise in water-levels in the rivers too (esp. the "backwater effect" is dangerous), that's mostly a slow and predictable change - dykes can be raised to deal with it.

The issue is the annual floodings of the rivers; they've been growing in intensity due to a) more meltwater from the Alps upstream and b) more/heavier rain, both a consequence of climate change. Another effect climate change has is subsidence; the country is gradually "sinking", allowing for more land to be flooded in the case of high river tides.

BUT a big motivation for the programme is also the fact that more and more people have been moving to areas susceptible to flooding. The Netherlands has a very high population density, and about 4 million people are currently living within a river basin, and the programme seeks to protect these people.

So really, I don't think the country will disappear - it has the most experience in the world in dealing with these problems. The rivers can be contained, you just won't be able to live right next to them; and reclamation of the entire country is unlikely imo. Especially if the other countries located in the watershed of the Rhine up their game - the Netherlands has essentially been facing these issues alone due to it being downstream, but Germany, France, Switzerland, etc. can all help contain the Rhine & reduce flooding. And hopefully they will!

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#113

Post by sailfast » Wed, Dec 18, 2019, 4:30 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #37

It won't. NL has been preparing quite hard for a rise in sea level and/or worse storms. The port of IJmuiden is being overhauled, the shoreline defenses have all been raised, in some places only about 3 ft, in others much more depending on the likelihood of flooding. A bigger problem is that during an extended period of high water that the rivers won't be able to drain into the North Sea and studies are being made on…

Agreed - I'd say most of the world will be in deeper trouble than the Netherlands since they've been completely ignoring these issues. Most of the coast of Florida comes to mind. The number of homes on small canals that connect directly to the ocean is mind-boggling.

Further, in a worst case scenario where you need to lose a lot of arable land, the Netherlands has zoned itself so that you could "afford" to lose that land while protecting denser cities. At a certain point I see the Dutch putting soil on barges topped by greenhouses and growing on top of the water if it came to that haha.

Of course all of this might mean a significant shift in how the country feeds itself, but the layout is such that you could shift a small minority to denser "protected" places (where more investment might be focused in a worst case scenario) if significant flooding were a problem.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#114

Post by edhelas » Wed, Dec 18, 2019, 4:37 PM UTC

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 wrote: post #111

blunte wrote: post #23

I find it a bit ironic given the MIT climate simulator on HN yesterday - the biggest impact (in that simulator) to climate change was the land/agriculture methane. Right now the Dutch farmers are again harassing the country with their tractors on public roads, angry about what they feel is undue pressure to reduce their emissions. Maybe they'll get one or two more generations of farming as they hasten their own demis…

> Meanwhile, since NL has failed significantly to meet EU (nitrogen) emissions requirements - almost entirely because of mass agriculture - there's a freeze on building housing, roads, etc. Oh and the country-wide max speed limit will be limited down to 100kph starting Jan 1 (which I don't mind so terribly, but many people do mind). And all of their efforts combined, even if it were 100% successful, will be a drop in…

Knowing that 1/3 of the food produced is wasted (http://www.fao.org/food-loss-and-food-waste/en/) that we consume way more meat than a few decades ago and that we import a lot of cereals, vegetables and fruits from aboard I don't think that blaming the Chinese or Indian people is the way to go.

30% of China production is exported.

Growing tomatoes in December in huge greenhouses like you can see in many places in Netherlands is maybe not the smartest way to save energy.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#115

Post by OmegaBlight » Wed, Dec 18, 2019, 4:38 PM UTC

blunte wrote: post #23

I find it a bit ironic given the MIT climate simulator on HN yesterday - the biggest impact (in that simulator) to climate change was the land/agriculture methane. Right now the Dutch farmers are again harassing the country with their tractors on public roads, angry about what they feel is undue pressure to reduce their emissions. Maybe they'll get one or two more generations of farming as they hasten their own demis…

It can be quite difficult to blame the Dutch farmers for something that involves the decisions of people all around the world. At this point they may be better to get as rich as possible so that they can weather the pain of climate change better.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#116

Post by Scarblac » Wed, Dec 18, 2019, 4:42 PM UTC

dtwest wrote: post #96

blunte wrote: post #23

I find it a bit ironic given the MIT climate simulator on HN yesterday - the biggest impact (in that simulator) to climate change was the land/agriculture methane. Right now the Dutch farmers are again harassing the country with their tractors on public roads, angry about what they feel is undue pressure to reduce their emissions. Maybe they'll get one or two more generations of farming as they hasten their own demis…

I do not know the details, but it is my understanding that the Netherlands exports a large amount of its agricultural production. One could say, let's only produce what we need, and methane production will go down. However, if that was done, all of the countries that rely on the Netherlands for agricultural imports would need to increase production or find somewhere else that would. There is no guarantee that using c…

Yes, and the Netherlands is an extremely good place for agriculture, with rich soil and very advanced technology. So if the world is going to produce this much, it's good for emissions to have it in the Netherlands.

But that is the whole world. I live in the Netherlands, and I don't want all of our nature to die, because I enjoy it and I want my children to be able to enjoy it. So I still want less production in the Netherlands.

Also because much of it is meat production, fed on imported soy from the other side of the world. And mostly for exporting. It must be possible to produce the meat elsewhere.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#117

Post by jacquesm » Wed, Dec 18, 2019, 4:46 PM UTC

sailfast wrote: post #113

jacquesm wrote: post #37

It won't. NL has been preparing quite hard for a rise in sea level and/or worse storms. The port of IJmuiden is being overhauled, the shoreline defenses have all been raised, in some places only about 3 ft, in others much more depending on the likelihood of flooding. A bigger problem is that during an extended period of high water that the rivers won't be able to drain into the North Sea and studies are being made on…

Agreed - I'd say most of the world will be in deeper trouble than the Netherlands since they've been completely ignoring these issues. Most of the coast of Florida comes to mind. The number of homes on small canals that connect directly to the ocean is mind-boggling. Further, in a worst case scenario where you need to lose a lot of arable land, the Netherlands has zoned itself so that you could "afford" to lose that…

> At a certain point I see the Dutch putting soil on barges topped by greenhouses and growing on top of the water if it came to that haha.

Stop laughing, that's been done:

https://www.floramedia.com/netherlands/2017/01/11/floating-g...

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#118

Post by tda » Wed, Dec 18, 2019, 4:51 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #106

tda wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope you're right, I expect the world to be in a very different place in a few decades and not for the better. I'm still under 40 so I'm keeping my options open; even though the chances are probably very low, the effect is also pretty extreme making the risk (probability * effect) approximately 0 * inf. I estimate the probability to be somewhat higher than 0, so therefore I believe the risk is significant.

> I expect the world to be in a very different place in a few decades and not for the better Given history to date I would say that is a safe assumption when you are living in a time of prosperity, it is the global equivalent of 'this too shall pass'. But even if NL will be hit hard I highly doubt it will be hit hardest or first. We've been vaccinated in a sense in not trusting nature to leave her boundaries where we…

Indeed we won't be hit hardest or first, but consider this. Just about the entire Randstad is in a single "Dijkring" (Dijkring 14). And because a large part of the Randstad is flooded, if any part of the defense goes, it goes entirely. And as the Randstad is the economic heart of the country, the country will not recover. Also because it can't feasibly be evacuated. So flooding will happen in other places first, but the other places are above sea level and will get dry again. Or a few meters of coastline is lost. Not the Randstad, it will be flooded exactly once and stay flooded completely and forever. Lets just hope it will take a long time before it happens.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#119

Post by jacquesm » Wed, Dec 18, 2019, 4:56 PM UTC

tda wrote: post #118

jacquesm wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I expect the world to be in a very different place in a few decades and not for the better Given history to date I would say that is a safe assumption when you are living in a time of prosperity, it is the global equivalent of 'this too shall pass'. But even if NL will be hit hard I highly doubt it will be hit hardest or first. We've been vaccinated in a sense in not trusting nature to leave her boundaries where we…

Indeed we won't be hit hardest or first, but consider this. Just about the entire Randstad is in a single "Dijkring" (Dijkring 14). And because a large part of the Randstad is flooded, if any part of the defense goes, it goes entirely. And as the Randstad is the economic heart of the country, the country will not recover. Also because it can't feasibly be evacuated. So flooding will happen in other places first, but…

I don't think that will happen that quickly. Yes, it is a single dijkring, but also one of the best protected ones. IJsselmeer is right next door giving a very nice way to get rid of a substantial amount of water with a very convenient canal system and the Oranjesluizen to make that happen. That would take care of a surface area the size of the city with 9 meters of so of water standing above it before this would be an issue.

I'm much more skeptical about the delta near Rotterdam/Zeeland and the part where the big rivers enter the country, mostly because of what's on the other side of the border.

https://flamingo.bij12.nl/risicokaart-viewer/app;jsessionid=...

Is a good place to look at, and it more or less confirms exactly what I wrote above.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#120

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Dec 18, 2019, 4:56 PM UTC

the-dude wrote: post #43

mosselman wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So because some people are shitting in their kitchen, it isn't a bad idea to do so as well? On a more serious note though, much of the agriculture in the Netherlands is the production of meat, especially pork, for export. This is by far the biggest source of pollution. I'd rather live with less animal farmers and more Natura2000 areas than the other way around.

Do you agree that your analogy is very very far fetched? If the analogy would hold up just a little bit, all this nature already would have perished, right? This is about the subtle opinion of some green leaning people who think it is not the 'right' nature which is growing in the Natura2000 areas right know. Nothing catastrophic, just a purely intellectual debate.

[deleted]