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When will the Netherlands disappear?

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Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#71

Post by jacquesm »

tech-no-logical wrote: post #68
jacquesm wrote: post #37

It won't. NL has been preparing quite hard for a rise in sea level and/or worse storms. The port of IJmuiden is being overhauled, the shoreline defenses have all been raised, in some places only about 3 ft, in others much more depending on the likelihood of flooding. A bigger problem is that during an extended period of high water that the rivers won't be able to drain into the North Sea and studies are being made on…

you do know the deltawerken were only built with a maximum of 40 cm sea level rise in mind, right ? and we're now thinking of about 100 cm by 2100. true, that does not mean the netherlands will disappear right away, but we will see more flooding than before 1953, especially with extreme weather getting more extreme. so the question is more whether it will be economically viable to keep the land dry. personally, with…

They were built with that in mind, yes. But since then they've been raised several times already and there is continuous maintenance on weak points.

The real problem is the rivers, keeping water out from the seaside is actually a simpler problem than preventing the interior from being flooded once the rivers are substantially below sea level themselves.

Sea dikes and fortifications can be raised (at a cost), but river dikes can't really be raised easily and besides that the water needs to go somewhere. And I did write that on larger time scales there is a real risk, and I believe that anything over several meters rise sustained would be a serious problem and would cause some of the land to revert back to the sea.

But long before then you'll see the same in other countries, Italy, the UK, the USA, France, Germany and Spain all have areas that would be much harder and earlier hit than NL because they have no fortifications whatsoever as a starting point and it would take decades to plan and construct them.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#72

Post by tda »

jacquesm wrote: post #59
tda wrote: post #58

Indeed the question is not if, but when the Netherlands will flood due too sea level rise. Unlike many other nations the Netherlands is managed in a way that it can potentially handle quite significant (I would say 1-3 meters) in the next couple of decades if necessary at high but bearable costs. The cost of retreating to higher parts of the country would easily go into trillions of euro's, which compared to the +/-…

That's a lot of ifs! Yes, if the sky falls we'll all wear blue hats. But for now the indications are that change will be gradual rather than sudden and we are actively working on this rather than sitting back and waiting to see how bad things will get (which is the standard in the rest of the developed world). NL is one of the few places where there is substantial funding today to deal with this. Level of upheaval th…

Just to be clear, I still enjoy and plan on living in the west for a long time. But there are quite a few theoretically possible regime changes that I am aware of (and probably even more that I am unaware of) to make me concerned about it. Any significant regime change (break with historic trends) will automatically invalidate all models/predictions/assumptions about our safety levels. Current design criterion is we should be safe for 1/10.000 year conditions.

And if all goes wrong, you better be in a low population density rich country that can handle a little warming (thinking of Sweden and Norway in particular) Better move there before everyone else does ;)

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#73

Post by WJW »

tech-no-logical wrote: post #68
jacquesm wrote: post #37

It won't. NL has been preparing quite hard for a rise in sea level and/or worse storms. The port of IJmuiden is being overhauled, the shoreline defenses have all been raised, in some places only about 3 ft, in others much more depending on the likelihood of flooding. A bigger problem is that during an extended period of high water that the rivers won't be able to drain into the North Sea and studies are being made on…

you do know the deltawerken were only built with a maximum of 40 cm sea level rise in mind, right ? and we're now thinking of about 100 cm by 2100. true, that does not mean the netherlands will disappear right away, but we will see more flooding than before 1953, especially with extreme weather getting more extreme. so the question is more whether it will be economically viable to keep the land dry. personally, with…

We have seen exactly this scenario before, only this time the expected water levels are a few decimeter to a few meter higher (depending on the time scale). It's not like the delta works are the technological limit to what we can do. At the time, they were designed to meet the expected requirements and no further.

If the requirements change, we will rebuild them to the new requirements.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#74

Post by century19 »

simplemts wrote: post #12
raverbashing wrote: post #8

Netherlands has been dealing with flooding even before the US existed. I think they will be fine.

From the perspective of an American living in the Netherlands for several years now... The Dutch are light years ahead in their Water management from the US, and far ahead of any other developed nation. The Dutch have a separate tax for Water to ensure money is there to prioritize this need, the citizens/children are all educated on the importance of water management (i.e. Indoctrination from young so EVERY citizen k…

> Highly recommend everyone watch/read about the dam they built in the North Sea.

Watch what?

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#75

Post by phicoh »

the-dude wrote: post #26
blunte wrote: post #23

I find it a bit ironic given the MIT climate simulator on HN yesterday - the biggest impact (in that simulator) to climate change was the land/agriculture methane. Right now the Dutch farmers are again harassing the country with their tractors on public roads, angry about what they feel is undue pressure to reduce their emissions. Maybe they'll get one or two more generations of farming as they hasten their own demis…

This is a very one-sided view of the nitrogen problem. It would be fair to point out the allowed nitrogen levels are orders of a magnitude smaller than in for example Germany, which is the result of a political decision to assign many many Natura2000 areas. edit: and to add to this, there is plenty of support for the farmers, and their activism in The Netherlands.

The problem in the Netherlands is that the Natura2000 areas are too small. So any activity next to such areas immediately affects rare species.

The other problem is that the government, in cooperation with many sectors, has created paper realities. One by one, those realities go down when people start measuring and then a sector is in trouble.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#76

Post by jacquesm »

tda wrote: post #72
jacquesm wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a lot of ifs! Yes, if the sky falls we'll all wear blue hats. But for now the indications are that change will be gradual rather than sudden and we are actively working on this rather than sitting back and waiting to see how bad things will get (which is the standard in the rest of the developed world). NL is one of the few places where there is substantial funding today to deal with this. Level of upheaval th…

Just to be clear, I still enjoy and plan on living in the west for a long time. But there are quite a few theoretically possible regime changes that I am aware of (and probably even more that I am unaware of) to make me concerned about it. Any significant regime change (break with historic trends) will automatically invalidate all models/predictions/assumptions about our safety levels. Current design criterion is we…

Sweden and Norway are attractive for many reasons, but I don't think any of this will happen soon enough to impact my life in a meaningful way. I'm 54, I haven't exactly been too careful with this body and if I live to 80 it would highly surprise me.

But my children likely will see this in full force and I sincerely hope that by then humanity will have come its collective senses.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#78

Post by edhelas »

mcv wrote: post #67
edhelas wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we also mention that most of the electricity in NL is made with coal and gaz, what a green country. https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&rem...

Yeah, we've really been in the back of the pack on green energy. When you see how much countries like Denmark and Germany have been investing in clean energy, it's embarrassing how little we've done. Fortunately our eternally right-wing government finally seems to realise that something should be done. Let's hope they actually do.

Investing in renewable energy doesn't mean that you'll drastically reduce your CO² emissions.

You have to take into account the capacity factor of what you install https://jancovici.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/load-factor...

You need to install 3 to 4 times more windmill and solar panel to approach the same output. You also need to install huge way to store your electricity (mostly using damns, hard to get in places where you don't have mountains such as NL) and you need to invest the double into the electricity infrastructure to transport this electricity (your windmill will produce most of the time at 10-20% of it capacity, but the day it produces 90% you still have to transport it, therefore your grid need to be oversized for the average usage).

Solar panels are mostly coming from China and need to be changed each 20-30 years (they are loosing efficiency after a few decades). Windmills need to be changed each 20 years (lots of mechanical stress involved), and are mostly impossible to recycle (https://www.livingcircular.veolia.com/en/industry/how-can-wi...). Also, to install windmills you need to put a lot of concrete in the fields as a base, concrete that is emitting also a lot of CO² to produce.

As a result you'll still have a non-controlled electricity production, where prices will vary a lot and where maintenance costs will stay really high decades after decades. It's not only about investing, it's also about maintaining something that works through the years.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#79

Post by tech-no-logical »

jacquesm wrote: post #71
tech-no-logical wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you do know the deltawerken were only built with a maximum of 40 cm sea level rise in mind, right ? and we're now thinking of about 100 cm by 2100. true, that does not mean the netherlands will disappear right away, but we will see more flooding than before 1953, especially with extreme weather getting more extreme. so the question is more whether it will be economically viable to keep the land dry. personally, with…

They were built with that in mind, yes. But since then they've been raised several times already and there is continuous maintenance on weak points. The real problem is the rivers, keeping water out from the seaside is actually a simpler problem than preventing the interior from being flooded once the rivers are substantially below sea level themselves. Sea dikes and fortifications can be raised (at a cost), but rive…

the weak points (like the haringvlietdam and maeslantkering) can't (easily) be raised. and yes, the rivers will be a problem when we need to close the maeslantkering for extended periods of time when the sea level rises. it doesn't matter where the water comes from : the sea or the rivers, it will cause severe floods at some point.

I guess we differ on the 'economically viable' part. but in the really long run (say greenland being free of ice) my guess is no amount of money is going to save the netherlands.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#80

Post by perfunctory »

edhelas wrote: post #78
mcv wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, we've really been in the back of the pack on green energy. When you see how much countries like Denmark and Germany have been investing in clean energy, it's embarrassing how little we've done. Fortunately our eternally right-wing government finally seems to realise that something should be done. Let's hope they actually do.

Investing in renewable energy doesn't mean that you'll drastically reduce your CO² emissions. You have to take into account the capacity factor of what you install https://jancovici.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/load-factor... You need to install 3 to 4 times more windmill and solar panel to approach the same output. You also need to install huge way to store your electricity (mostly using damns, hard to get in plac…

> Solar panels ... need to be changed each 20-30 years

How does this maintenance cost compare to the operating cost of a coal plant where coal has to be delivered non-stop?

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