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When will the Netherlands disappear?

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Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#41

Post by blunte »

rasvj wrote: post #32
blunte wrote: post #23

I find it a bit ironic given the MIT climate simulator on HN yesterday - the biggest impact (in that simulator) to climate change was the land/agriculture methane. Right now the Dutch farmers are again harassing the country with their tractors on public roads, angry about what they feel is undue pressure to reduce their emissions. Maybe they'll get one or two more generations of farming as they hasten their own demis…

One or two generations of farming? By then they'll be retired (with a pension) or dead, do you think they care?

No, they don't care. They, like many older people in other countries, feel that they have a right to their "way of life". It's a strange failure of thinking when someone believes that they have a right to be how they have previously been (especially when their previous behavior has been demonstrated to be foolish or harmful to themselves or others).

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#42

Post by holstvoogd »

blunte wrote: post #23

I find it a bit ironic given the MIT climate simulator on HN yesterday - the biggest impact (in that simulator) to climate change was the land/agriculture methane. Right now the Dutch farmers are again harassing the country with their tractors on public roads, angry about what they feel is undue pressure to reduce their emissions. Maybe they'll get one or two more generations of farming as they hasten their own demis…

In the end it all comes back to weak politics. Our 'polder model, which is basically appeasement imo, has meant that for decades we have not done anything about the fact we have too many farmers, cows and pigs. (After the USA the Dutch are the largest exporter of food worldwide.)

And now, when push comes to shove, they get pissed because they are not protected from by the government anymore. Measures that should have been slowly introduced over years have to be implemented quick now and that hurts. But ANY other branch would have had to adjust to market conditions and not complain. Yet the farmers got subsidized when they produced to much milk driving the prices below production costs...

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#43

Post by the-dude »

mosselman wrote: post #33
the-dude wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very one-sided view of the nitrogen problem. It would be fair to point out the allowed nitrogen levels are orders of a magnitude smaller than in for example Germany, which is the result of a political decision to assign many many Natura2000 areas. edit: and to add to this, there is plenty of support for the farmers, and their activism in The Netherlands.

So because some people are shitting in their kitchen, it isn't a bad idea to do so as well? On a more serious note though, much of the agriculture in the Netherlands is the production of meat, especially pork, for export. This is by far the biggest source of pollution. I'd rather live with less animal farmers and more Natura2000 areas than the other way around.

Do you agree that your analogy is very very far fetched?

If the analogy would hold up just a little bit, all this nature already would have perished, right?

This is about the subtle opinion of some green leaning people who think it is not the 'right' nature which is growing in the Natura2000 areas right know.

Nothing catastrophic, just a purely intellectual debate.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#44

Post by allovernow »

blunte wrote: post #23

I find it a bit ironic given the MIT climate simulator on HN yesterday - the biggest impact (in that simulator) to climate change was the land/agriculture methane. Right now the Dutch farmers are again harassing the country with their tractors on public roads, angry about what they feel is undue pressure to reduce their emissions. Maybe they'll get one or two more generations of farming as they hasten their own demis…

Alternative take: people are prioritizing the compromises they need to make in order to minimize emissions. Ignoring the 12 year doomsday clock (which has been stuck on ≈10 years for about 30 years), it will be much easier to convince people to make gradual sacrifices of their quality of life rather than telling them to drop everything and move into a mud hut, and people like meat.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#45

Post by aequitas »

rasvj wrote: post #32
blunte wrote: post #23

I find it a bit ironic given the MIT climate simulator on HN yesterday - the biggest impact (in that simulator) to climate change was the land/agriculture methane. Right now the Dutch farmers are again harassing the country with their tractors on public roads, angry about what they feel is undue pressure to reduce their emissions. Maybe they'll get one or two more generations of farming as they hasten their own demis…

One or two generations of farming? By then they'll be retired (with a pension) or dead, do you think they care?

A strong part of the protestors are young farmers. Set on taking over their parents farm and continuing the family business. And they probably want the same for their kids as well. It's really puzzling they take this stance, especially since the majority is also anti EU, which is also against their best interest, because most of their revenue is from export, which would suffer havily when a Nexit would ever occur.

Source (Dutch): https://www.trouw.nl/binnenland/vooral-jonge-boeren-worden-s...

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#46

Post by yread »

the-dude wrote: post #28
blunte wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans have quite a history of trying to keep the sea out of their land, and that history has plenty of big failures. It all goes well until it doesn't, and then it's a big deal. It doesn't require speculation to recognize this pattern, even if we can't predict the failure events accurately.

Do you have any specific examples of this ? ( I know of the 1953 flood, a combination of high tide and storm ). But if there is plenty, I really would want to know.

Uh, are you asking for examples of flooding?

Consider this: Delta Works and the rest of ocean polders are built to withstand something like 5m above mean sea level. Katrina caused a storm surge 8.5m above mean sea level.

Granted, North Sea isn't quite like Gulf of Mexico (yet) But there is absolutely a chance that a storm comes next year that would breach it

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#47

Post by the-dude »

blunte wrote: post #38
the-dude wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very one-sided view of the nitrogen problem. It would be fair to point out the allowed nitrogen levels are orders of a magnitude smaller than in for example Germany, which is the result of a political decision to assign many many Natura2000 areas. edit: and to add to this, there is plenty of support for the farmers, and their activism in The Netherlands.

It looks to me like Germany has a significant amount of Natura 2000 sites, rather in proportion to NL in terms of land size. However, Germany has triple the percentage of forest compare to NL. Germany also has a lot of manufacturing that NL doesn't have. Both use about 50% of their land for agriculture. From what I can gather, Dutch farming is higher output - production wise as well as emissions wise.

How does this explain 2 orders of a magnitude difference in allowed nitrogen disposition compared to Germany?

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#48

Post by blunte »

the-dude wrote: post #28
blunte wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans have quite a history of trying to keep the sea out of their land, and that history has plenty of big failures. It all goes well until it doesn't, and then it's a big deal. It doesn't require speculation to recognize this pattern, even if we can't predict the failure events accurately.

Do you have any specific examples of this ? ( I know of the 1953 flood, a combination of high tide and storm ). But if there is plenty, I really would want to know.

In the Netherlands, no. But it's a small country with a small coast (relative to other countries), and it's in a part of the continent that has thus far not experienced much in the way of severe storms. That is changing as the weather patterns become more volatile.

But here's a simple scenario. Earthquakes in the Groningen region (caused by natural gas drilling and extraction), have become a new and significant problem. Let's say one or a series of earthquakes happens to coincide with an unusual North Sea storm event - one which includes high winds. You'll have a combination of stresses and forces that may exceed the capabilities of some dikes. And small failures could result in other stresses in other places which could lead to other failures.

If you read about some of the great catastrophes in the modern age, they often involve a chain of small events which result in a scenario that was either not predicted or was deemed too low chance to be concerned with.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#49

Post by perfunctory »

"On the other end of the spectrum is controlled abandonment ... And as soon as this gets known, as soon as the shit hits the fan, there won’t be any investments anymore and local economies will collapse"

This seems to be an underappreciated idea. We tend to think of climate disaster as something in the distant future, but capital flight might cause havoc much sooner.

Re: When will the Netherlands disappear?

#50

Post by jacquesm »

empath75 wrote: post #13
adventskalender wrote: post #3

Am I the only one who gets angry at stupid "mood setting" in such articles? It leads with the picture of an abandoned settlement that has turned to marshland, only to reveal that it was deliberately given over to the sea. Why should I read on after they wasted my time with that imagery? As for Netherlands being flooded, I suppose that threat has existed since the early day of its existence.

It wasn’t given back to the sea because they were tired of having all that extra farmland. They are strategically giving up on some parts to preserve others.

It is only one aspect of a 'defense in depth' strategy.
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