Earlier quoted context omitted.
I too think that people that refuse to believe are a problem, but honestly, they are nowhere near the primary problem. The primary problem is that people will greedily hold onto a broken status quo if fixing it means they might be held accountable. There is always someone else that is the problem, never yourself. In Seattle, almost everybody agrees with the scientific consensus on global warming. But if you ask them…
Playing with the linked web app shows pretty clearly that a carbon tax, or taxes on oil and natural gas, will in fact do very little. The conclusion I'm forced to draw after playing with all the dials is that it's literally impossible to "austerity" our way out of this. We're going to have to invent and develop our way out of it. Don't trust me; play with the sliders yourself.
Browser-based climate change simulation
191–200 of 276 posts
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#192Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Now, you probably won't like the source of that information, and I'm sure it's all been 'debunked,' but the other side can say the exact same thing. I don't like that source of information because it redirected to an ad that tried to make me download malware and filled my history with junk. Couldn't even read it, literally, because they were too eager to exploit me. Follow the money, indeed.
Don't you use adblock? You could say the same about NYT & WaPo too.
So, no, I can’t say the same thing about NYT and WaPo.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#193I'm curious what those carbon removal techs are exactly. Because a lot of the CO2 tends to stay in the atmosphere.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#194Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t even think that’s the primary problem. I think the average person doesn’t give a shit about stuff like this, at least not to the point where they have to make personal sacrifices. It’s very very easy to live your daily life and not see any real world consequences outside of some sometimes shrill activists who aren’t the most persuasive people to the average lowest common denominator people. For one thing thes…
They don't give a shit because the news they read, the entertainment they watch all tell them not to. The narrative has been set by private interests for decades - perhaps hundreds of years. So now these opinions look like they are coming from the grass roots.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
Disclaimer: the style in which I write this reply is highly likely to be considered highly antagonistic, provocative, and non-constructive. Indeed, it may very well be this in many ways. But please consider the possibility that the actual underlying intent is other than what you might presume it to be...that there may be a method to my madness. > I do not harbor this same suspicion, however, I'm determined to learn w…
> Is it possible that your mind has formed a highly detailed internal model of who I am and what I'm all about, based not entirely on factual observations, but rather based on subconscious heuristic judgements? This appears to be the only important statement in everything that you wrote requiring some kind of response. I can say, quite certainly, that this is not the case, but that it is slowly happening, based on ot…
Not that I'm surprised, but....really?
How about this: "My point is, I think a perfectly plausible, evidence-based case can be made that what is primarily preventing us from moving forward on this problem is not a misunderstanding of the science (which there definitely is, on both sides), but a misunderstanding of the importance of human psychology."
Are you willing to state an opinion on that (taking into consideration the supporting ideas in my comment)?
> I can say, quite certainly, that this is not the case, but that it is slowly happening, based on other responses I'm seeing.
Here I'm not sure what you're saying exactly.
"that this is not the case" - ok, well if that's the case, could you please answer the question I posed: "From where did the ideas come from, that:"
"but that it is slowly happening, based on other responses I'm seeing" - I'm not sure what this refers to. Could you clarify?
>>> I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results because their jobs depend on it and they want to continue to get funding.
>> FWIW, I also happen to harbor this suspicion. How might one actually know whether there is an element of truth to it?
> This is, quite literally, creating a conspiracy from thin air without proof.
No, it is not. You're the one that added the notion of epistemology into the discussion (and kudos for that), but it seems now, you've forgotten that.
I'm not "creating a conspiracy" (I imagine this rhetorical technique has a name, but I know not what it might be), I am asking a question. You seem to believe you are above epistemic soundness. I challenge you to address this.
> Climate science is so unnecessarily controversial at this point, that if any evidence existed that scientists were lying to make more money, business leaders would be touting it at every turn.
Sure, and nothing I said directly contradicts this, I am merely pointing out that we do not have evidence either way that it is "wise career advice" to pursue climate change only from a particular angle, or that there might be a kind of "overton window" in play, to some degree. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Again, I am not saying this is the case, I am simply saying:
a) the conclusive, absolute truth on these matters is unknown
b) a behavior can be observed where climate change advocates seem extremely unwilling to simply acknowledge that some things are unknown
> However, there is plenty of evidence that scientists that deny climate change are in it for the money: https://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/climate-denial-ma.... > As a Washington Post article explains, “in the 1990s, oil companies, fossil fuel industry trade groups and their respective PR firms began positioning contrarian scientists such as Willie Soon, William Happer and David Legates as experts whose opinions on climate change should be considered equal and opposite to that of climate scientists.” > The contrarian voice of these funded-skeptics hides the fact that basically the entire scientific community agrees the crisis is real and caused by humans, promoting the myth of disagreement.
> Do you hold the same opinion of scientists that deny climate change?
I do not subscribe to the beliefs of climate change denying scientists, and not a single thing I wrote suggested that I believe this in the slightest. And yet, here you are concentrating on this, while simultaneously ignoring most everything else I actually wrote.
I will remind you of something else I wrote:
> My point is, I think a perfectly plausible, evidence-based case can be made that what is primarily preventing us from moving forward on this problem is not a misunderstanding of the science (which there definitely is, on both sides), but a misunderstanding of the importance of human psychology. And, I will provocatively (but speculatively) assert that a recurring refusal to even acknowledge this as a valid possibility, is in fact evidence that supports the very theory. My suspicion on why this behavior exists, is that on ~identity-related issues, it is simply human nature to blame one's opponent while absolving oneself of all guilt [1].
> I am worried that once again, my effort at articulating this theory will be completely not understood, or completely ignored (again, behavior that I would assert is suggestive of the very theory), as if my comment didn't even exist. But hey, as I provocatively challenged you at the very start when you claimed you were "determined to understand": "Let's find out.". So, let's, shall we?
Taking those words into consideration, notice what the theme/theory of the actual content of my post was, and notice what the content of your reply was. You ignored most everything I said, and certainly ignored the main idea, even though I clearly pointed out that this is the very behavior I was pointing out. What happened to your "determination to understand"?
As I've already stated: to me, this is extremely interesting. I think something important is going on here.
> Offered evidence, will you change that opinion?
My opinions are always open to change. I am rare in that I will stand and defend my beliefs, and answer any question posed to me without changing the subject. Can you say the same?
> This article might not be definitive proof, but proof of these actions by the fossil fuel industry is widely available. With this information, my theory of epistemology can treat scientists who suggest that Climate Change is happening and human caused is fact, and that those that deny it are most likely disingenuous.
Are you suggesting that untruth on the part of climate-denying scientists is somehow epistemically sound proof that pro-climate-change scientist's science is fact? This seems illogical to me.
> If you don't agree, then it is likely that we cannot share epistimological solidarity.
I don't disagree on that, but I don't think we share epistimological solidarity, because I am extremely concerned with what is known to be true regardless of whose theories it supports, and your concerns seem to be biased.
> IOW, I responded primarily to a statement that is a widespread conspiracy theory, and therefore propaganda, by calling it what it was...
...and also suggesting that because it is "a conspiracy theory" then therefore it is false, with a demonstrated lack of concern for whether such a conclusion is actually known, or knowable.
> not by making assumptions about who you are, and how you think.
I challenge you again to address my question: "From where did the ideas come from, that:"
> I simply made a reply based on what you wrote.
You missed the part where you ignored the majority of my comment, despite me predicting that.
> I, on the other hand, can present a real conspiracy (not propaganda) by pointing out how various industries have disingenuously used media (and thus human emotion and failing human intuition) to argue against human caused climate change.
Once again, which I've never disputed. Why you seem focused on something I've literally not mentioned, while ignoring that which I did mention, is the very behavior I noted in my comment that I find unusual.
> Further, you reference the book "Thinking Fast and Slow", while defending a statement of intuition:
> I also happen to harbor this suspicion
> In response, I gave you the ultimate 'slow thinking' path that I follow myself: education. Until I have that education, then I must fall back on the expertise of others.
Your education didn't contain any proof of my conclusion, but at least you seem to realize that your proof is an appeal to authority.
> Further, I'm extremely aware of the fact that we need the public to buy in, and that we need political will to deal with Climate Change. Extremely, frustratingly, aware.
Are you frustrated enough to actually consider the content of what I wrote in my comment? Because from what you've written here, it seems almost as if you didn't even read it.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some thoughts for your consideration, delivered with collaborative intent: > I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results because their jobs depend on it and they want to continue to get funding. FWIW, I also happen to harbor this suspicion. How might one actually know whether there is an element of truth to it? > "Follow the money" is a common thing they say in regard…
> FWIW, I also happen to harbor this suspicion. How might one actually know whether there is an element of truth to it? I do not harbor this same suspicion, however, I'm determined to learn whatever is necessary to understand it. Not because I can argue a point to completion for someone who doesn't share epistemological solidarity with me, but because it might allow me to aid in whatever needs posterity has in solvin…
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some thoughts for your consideration, delivered with collaborative intent: > I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results because their jobs depend on it and they want to continue to get funding. FWIW, I also happen to harbor this suspicion. How might one actually know whether there is an element of truth to it? > "Follow the money" is a common thing they say in regard…
> FWIW, I also happen to harbor this suspicion. How might one actually know whether there is an element of truth to it? I do not harbor this same suspicion, however, I'm determined to learn whatever is necessary to understand it. Not because I can argue a point to completion for someone who doesn't share epistemological solidarity with me, but because it might allow me to aid in whatever needs posterity has in solvin…
You realize that those "x% of scientists agree" claims are yet again based on models that are sometimes questionable? I've looked into the 97% claim (I think by "Cook"), which is based on manual estimates of summaries of papers. One problem is, how are the papers selected. Another problem is the human bias in categorizing the summaries (where does the human doing the categorizing draw the line for "supports man made global warming"). The biggest issue, however, in my opinion, is that even if most papers consent that humans affect the climate, that doesn't mean they all agree to the same level of influence.
Meaning assuming it is true, the study found 97% of papers/scientists agree that humans affect the climate. That doesn't imply 97% agree with the dramatic doomsday scenarios.
I can say that I sympathized with your approach, like taking the Coursera course. Although I fear it won't really help, because you can not be sure that they will teach you all the facts you need to know. It may be just a course designed to convince you that global warming exists.
But anyway - trying to understand the science is obviously a good idea, if you have the spare time.
But then you lost me completely with the 95% consensus claim. It's just a flag that goes up that says "you are one of those people", making me tend to ignore all your further arguments, or at least assign them a low likelihood of truth.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It seems you misunderstand what scientists are saying and forming an incorrect opinion from that. I feel highly confident that I don't actually misunderstand what scientists are saying, but rather you have misunderstood (misinterpreted due to heuristic modification during interpretation) what I have said. Would you be willing to quote particular statements I've made that you consider to be mistaken? > The projectio…
Case in point, I believe in climate change... that it's man-made (so to speak), that it results from higher than normal levels of carbon, that it will cause sea level rise, etc. But I disagree on some core orthodoxies. I think the root cause is deforestation / removal of carbon sinks, and a even lower-level root cause is simple human overpopulation. The amount of missing biomass from trees over the last few hundred y…
Burned fossil fuels has well understood isotope signatures and can also be measured via satellite. We've got a LOT of data that human emissions of CO2 via burning fossil fuels accounts for the bulk of CO2 increase we measure in the atmosphere.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#199Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're probably confused by the fact that (1) they are plotting ice core based CO2 concentrations as years before 1950 and (2) the time resolution of the ancient ice core data is quite low, while all the anthropogenic action happened in the last 150 y or so (and about 50% of the CO2 addition happened in the last 50). Look at [0] for a more authoritative source and specifically compare the 800 and 400 ky data to the 2…
What I'm saying is that all of our historic CO2 data comes from cores, which are a proxy for paleo-CO2 levels. The theory is that bubbles of atmospheric gas are trapped in ice as it forms over thousands of years. What I'm saying is that there's the possibility that this trapping is imperfect, and ratios of atmospheric gassed may change after being sequestered, such that past ppm values are underestimated, and the cur…
Kouwenberg herself however doesn't believe the crazy 300-700 AD CO2 excursion to around 400 ppm and spends a lot of time looking at alternative explanations, finally concluding on p. 65:
"""
The extremely low number of stomata per mm needle length in the Tsuga heterophylla record at Jay Bath between 300 and 700 AD does not appear to result from extremely high atmospheric CO2 levels at the time, but coincides with the establishment of the species during a period of major disturbance at the site. The open, exposed setting after this disturbance probably provided highly stressed growth conditions for pioneering, early-successional T. heterophylla trees.
"""
Of that, there is of course no mention in the blog post you cited.
Importantly, of course, none of this is really that relevant to the discussion of anthropogenic global warming, since we know that we are putting CO2 into the atmosphere, and that CO2 in the atmosphere traps heat.
I'm really starting to see a pattern here, where facts that contain some grain of truth are used out of context to sow doubt, and everything just evaporates as soon as you look more closely (and then the next tangentially relevant fact is brought up)... It's probably quite effective - I mean, who is going to read that blog post you linked and then do what I just did and actually dig into the sources? I did that because I took the "advice" I got in this comment section to heart and wanted to give my "opponents" the benefit of the doubt.
[0] PDF available at https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/243/full....
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
Case in point, I believe in climate change... that it's man-made (so to speak), that it results from higher than normal levels of carbon, that it will cause sea level rise, etc. But I disagree on some core orthodoxies. I think the root cause is deforestation / removal of carbon sinks, and a even lower-level root cause is simple human overpopulation. The amount of missing biomass from trees over the last few hundred y…
> But I disagree on some core orthodoxies. I think the root cause is deforestation / removal of carbon sinks, and a even lower-level root cause is simple human overpopulation. The amount of missing biomass from trees over the last few hundred years tracks very neatly with CO2 levels, as does of course human population levels. Burned fossil fuels has well understood isotope signatures and can also be measured via sate…