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Browser-based climate change simulation

en-roads.climateinteractive.org

171–180 of 276 posts

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#171
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some thoughts for your consideration, delivered with collaborative intent: > I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results because their jobs depend on it and they want to continue to get funding. FWIW, I also happen to harbor this suspicion. How might one actually know whether there is an element of truth to it? > "Follow the money" is a common thing they say in regard…

> FWIW, I also happen to harbor this suspicion. How might one actually know whether there is an element of truth to it? It's probably good to have some baseline level of cynicism, since individual people do often act in egotistical ways. However, what you're proposing seems to imply that either (1) there is a vast conspiracy of climate scientists, who are engaging in that conspiracy for ultimately very little gain or…

> However, what you're proposing seems to imply that either (1) there is a vast conspiracy of climate scientists, who are engaging in that conspiracy for ultimately very little gain or (2) climate scientists are incredibly stupid, and keep repeating incorrect things as fact to each other while being blind to other evidence.

It may seem this way to you, but you have formed an incorrect conclusion (a behavior which I argue is the very core of the problem). Please see my other comments in this thread for clarification.

> There's nothing scientists love more than attacking each other's interpretations of data, to prove that they're smarter than the next guy.

Agreed, but this does not logically preclude my concerns that it is possible that this competitive behavior takes place within an overall "overton window" of acceptable discourse and study. To be clear, I am not asserting that this is in fact what is happening, but I am very much asserting that if you are saying something along the lines of "this is not happening, at all, and I know it", then my reaction is suspicion due to an obvious lack of epistemic humility.

I am also not recommending my beliefs to others, I am simply trying to provide some insight into how I think, and that the underlying reasons for my non-compliance are other than those you and others presume. What I will recommend though, is to observe how willing yourself and others are to even consider the possibility that us "deniers" (yet another comically simplistic belief) are not actually motivated by sheer stupidity. Disagreement with the proposal isn't even attempted, but rather the response will almost always be silence.

I proclaim that something very interesting is going here.

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#172
post #79

This is great and all, but what can we do about the people that don't believe this data? That's where the real issue is. I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results because their jobs depend on it and they want to continue to get funding. "Follow the money" is a common thing they say in regards to this, but also conveniently disregarded and deny that big oil/coal have…

I'm inclined to believe this data because I trust MIT and believe that climate change is a very serious problem. But this app alone doesn't do a good job of convincing anyone of anything. For starters, it's just a bunch of graphs. I doubt most people who deny climate change are going to understand what they're looking at. But most importantly, there's no straightforward way for anyone to verify this data on their own…

> But this app alone doesn't do a good job of convincing anyone of anything.

I don't believe it's meant to. This is not targeted at convincing climate denialists.

This is aimed at policy makers, and people who talk to policy makers, and people who vote on policies and policy-makers.

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#173
post #13

Interesting tool. It basically says you can: - Tax coal, oil, natural gas, bioenergy - Subsidize renewables, nuclear, new technology - Increase efficiency and electrification of transports, buildings, and industry - Reduce population growth - Reduce economic growth - Reduce deforestation - Increase afforestation For an effect that puts us at +2.1C by 2100 https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?p1=120..…

We are at a very warm part of a very long cold trend. The idea that human increases in CO2 is a bad thing is completely divorced from historical observation.

The earth has been much hotter than it is now and at the hot parts was peak life here on the Earth. Additionally, the climate models by the IPCC omit the effect of the Solar wind's effect on the thermosphere. If this was included, then many of the climate models would be saying the following: "the Sun got hotter, the Earth and all the planets in the solar system followed."

Conversely, the sun has entered into an unusually cold period, signified by a lack of solar spots these last few years. NASA confirmed this in 2017 when they announced that the Sun had entered into a Solar minima and would continue.

The Farmers Almanac also confirmed this with predictions that there would be extensive rain that would destroy crops. This prediction panned out and for a great summary of the crop failures going on around the world you can follow "Ice Age Farmer" on YouTube. Ice Age farmer was calling out extensive cold a year ago and now it's happening.

Given the full history of the Earth's temperature, it would make sense for world leaders to come to an agreement to dig up as much locked up carbon in the ground as possible, remove the impurities and then clean burn it - simply to get the CO2 back into the atmosphere where it belongs so that we avert a future DEVASTATING ICE AGE.

Hopefully one day the "Global Warming" hysteria will be taught in schools as an example of how a mass of people can be deceived. Much in the same way that "flat-earth" was commonly accepted as reality in Spain prior to 1492, and peak oil was pushed in the 1970's and beyond.

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#174
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There comes a point where the model no longer accepts any progress beyond a +1.0C increase. No matter how many additional actions taken, the floor is +1.0C. It seems the immediate extinction of the human race would still result in an increase in temperature. Is there research that backs this up?

guess what. all other climate changes in earth‘s history happened w/o humans. plants need at least 150ppm co2. they flourish with more. we‘re pumping co2 into green houses to make shit grow. we are at around 400ppm and had 1200ppm in the past, no problem. now these folks run around headless wanting to lower it further. complete mindlessness. global average temperature is a joke. the earth‘s climate consists of many,…

https://xkcd.com/1732/

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#175
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One other interesting point to add to the list. If you look at plots of historic CO2 estimates derived from the Vostok ice core [1], you'll notice that we are presently at the very peak (in time) of a climate cycle that aligns almost perfectly with four other cycles from the last ≈400k years. Now two points here: 1. It is extremely unlikely that anthropogenic emissions would align so conveniently with the tip of a na…

You're probably confused by the fact that (1) they are plotting ice core based CO2 concentrations as years before 1950 and (2) the time resolution of the ancient ice core data is quite low, while all the anthropogenic action happened in the last 150 y or so (and about 50% of the CO2 addition happened in the last 50). Look at [0] for a more authoritative source and specifically compare the 800 and 400 ky data to the 2…

What I'm saying is that all of our historic CO2 data comes from cores, which are a proxy for paleo-CO2 levels. The theory is that bubbles of atmospheric gas are trapped in ice as it forms over thousands of years. What I'm saying is that there's the possibility that this trapping is imperfect, and ratios of atmospheric gassed may change after being sequestered, such that past ppm values are underestimated, and the currently measured values are not unusual in history, and are rather consistent with the peak that historic core data shows us to be at.

In fact, here [1] is a well sourced article which highlights at least one indication that this is the case - historic CO2 estimates derived from plant stomata are much higher and closer to contemporary measured levels than ice core data. Then there is the idea of time averaging smoothing out peaks, and we can only speculate/model the loss of resolution.

It's very easy for a well intentioned group of researchers to reason themselves into a corner, particularly when things like institutional momentum, political biases, and understandable doomsday concerns influence the kinds of questions scientists ask and the paths they are willing to take to find answers. Because this research has broad effects on economic, social, and corporate policy, it is dangerous to close off one side of questioning behind an apparent consensus, not to mention it's simply bad science.

>the time resolution of the ancient ice core data is quite low, while all the anthropogenic action happened in the last 150 y or so

All the more reason to be open to questioning.

1. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/26/co2-ice-cores-vs-plan...

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

guess what. all other climate changes in earth‘s history happened w/o humans. plants need at least 150ppm co2. they flourish with more. we‘re pumping co2 into green houses to make shit grow. we are at around 400ppm and had 1200ppm in the past, no problem. now these folks run around headless wanting to lower it further. complete mindlessness. global average temperature is a joke. the earth‘s climate consists of many,…

https://xkcd.com/1732/

The tooltip on top of the Image is just genius. "[After setting your car on fire] Listen, your car's temperature has changed before."

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#177
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also evidence that CO2 lags temperature increase historically, meaning CO2 was not the causative agent for temperature increase, rising CO2 might be an artifact of increase temperatures.

At that point you're questioning pretty basic physics. What part of the influence of CO2 concentration on the infrared transmittance of the atmosphere are you questioning [0]? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect#Mechanism

The "basic physics" contradicts the data. Your error is approaching this enormously complex question with the assumption that climate science is unquestionably correct. This lag is a glaring discrepancy that begs resolution. No, it doesn't mean climate science is totally wrong, but this attitude of unquestionability is absolutely pervasive in both society at large and academia, and gives deniers a justifiable reason for suspicion.

And I'm not some snot nosed programmer looking in from outside. I'm a former geoscientist and I saw this pressure firsthand, even at a relatively conservative University.

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about climate it's about political control. It's a political boogeyman. Left wing politicians have successfully brainwashed a generation to believe they’re gonna die in 12 years unless socialists and communists control our planet and the lives of everyone on it. I was a huge believer in Climate Change as a youth. I wanted to save the environment. Then I caught one lie. Then two. Then three. Then I read the c…

So your big point is that it's all a big "maybe." Aren't you missing a rather larger point that we're also currently polluting the planet in the process, smog, water tables, rivers, ocean trash, deforestation, excess meat consumption linked to chronic disease?

That we are polluting is beyond doubt. Deforestation, mining, nuclear accidents... all these are real problems that need no additional backing science or guvernamental panels, yet they hardly get the spotlight in mass media compared with Co2 levels. Co2 is reported as the worst problem by politicians to scare us, make us feel guilty and pay.

The degree of overconsumism rooted in our system is hardly environmentally friendly. Yet we want to be environmentally friendly by consuming a new generation of Co2 friendly products, which polluted the planet to be manufactured.

Consuming is the problem, not the solution, but who is going to say in a capitalist system backed by fiat money that is only sustainable by an ever increasing debt that we need to have negative growth and lose some comfort to decrease our footprint?

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#179
post #13

Interesting tool. It basically says you can: - Tax coal, oil, natural gas, bioenergy - Subsidize renewables, nuclear, new technology - Increase efficiency and electrification of transports, buildings, and industry - Reduce population growth - Reduce economic growth - Reduce deforestation - Increase afforestation For an effect that puts us at +2.1C by 2100 https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?p1=120..…

We are at a very warm part of a very long cold trend. The idea that human increases in CO2 is a bad thing is completely divorced from historical observation. The earth has been much hotter than it is now and at the hot parts was peak life here on the Earth. Additionally, the climate models by the IPCC omit the effect of the Solar wind's effect on the thermosphere. If this was included, then many of the climate models…

[deleted]

Re: Browser-based climate change simulation

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not hypothesizing anything, solar energy is the primary input to the system by nature of the fact that removing the sun would leave Earth a lifeless rock. I do find all of the catastrophising of nature very fascinating. The switcheroo from "global warming" to "climate change" was pretty slick. The attempt to step the message up to "climate crisis" is going to be barrels of fun. And, yes, I do feel for those peopl…

Solar energy is the primary input to the system, but it isn't driving warming. There is no evidence that it is. Literally everything else you said here is just politics.

> isn't driving warming

I never said anything about warming, that’s your line. I said, "I think these primary inputs to the system not staying constant would make it impossible to model climate such that the model could be an accurate predictive tool." Also, we’ve long moved onto “Climate Change”, even though all the models still predict warming.

> Solar energy is the primary input to the system, but it isn't driving warming.

You seem so sure, and that has me questioning my position. People seem to like to quote Wikipedia here, so I DDG'd for a few seconds with the !wiki thing. Here's what came up. I may need to throw some bucks in the Wikipedia fundraising kettle:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_activity_and_climate

Says here after all of the prehistoric climate change hypothesized to be tied to solar output:

> The link between recent solar activity and climate has been quantified and is not a major driver of the warming that has occurred since early in the twentieth century.

Maybe you’re right! Let’s keep reading.

> Human-induced forcings are needed to reproduce the late-20th century warming.

I thought I was busted, except in the very next sentence …

> Some studies associate solar cycle-driven irradiation increases with part of twentieth century warming.

So solar cycle-driven irradiation CAN correlate with temperature change. And in fact, if you read the whole article you can see regular admissions there’s a lot we don’t understand and the sun is a contributing factor in varying temperatures.

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