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Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

wsj.com

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Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#241

Post by salex89 »

kn0where wrote: post #167
salex89 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It probably impacted already. The Boeing NMA is basically nowhere to be seen, the 777X deadlines are slowly being broken, and that should be the future of Boeing. For now, Boeing is dealing with the past, basically, corpses falling out of the closet. Not to mention the 787 engine issues.

It increasingly seems like NMA won’t happen before a 737 replacement. 777X is going to be under a lot of scrutiny post-MAX and I would not be shocked if regulators find issues that Boeing overlooked before the plane is certified. At least the 787 engine issues are Rolls Royce and not Boeing, and RR isn’t the sole supplier of 787 engines.

True. Basically Airbus will have time to roll out their own purebred NMA competitor by then, although they have the A321.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#242

Post by kawfey »

SmellyGeekBoy wrote: post #224
ijidak wrote: post #213

Flying already evokes an illogical visceral fear in most humans. (Listen to the screams, and white knuckled grasps, during strong turbulence.) The 737 Max is likely dead, forever, for passenger traffic. There's just too much for every stakeholder, but Boeing, to lose. Most likely Boeing will need state help (like the auto company bailout) while it transitions to some new post-737-Max reality. The 737 Max rise and fal…

I'm not sure the fear is illogical in a case when over 300 people have died due to a known design fault, particularly when the manufacturer in question tried to sweep it under the rug the first time it manifested itself. I have no problem at all with flying and do it regularly (as recently as yesterday, on a 737-800 no less) but I wouldn't set foot on a MAX, even if I was assured that the fault was fixed.

The fear is illogical because there is a 1 in 2,925,000 odds of dying on commercial aircraft [0].

Before the MAX 8 was grounded, it had well over 2,000,000 hours of flight time on 387 aircraft performing 8,600 flights/week for 56 airlines [1]. Two out of 800,000+ flights crashed due to MCAS taking input from a broken AoA sensor, related to the poor maintenance of the airlines, and poor training by the airline and possibly pilot error.

Imagine the level of detail of scrutiny the MAX 8 is currently undergoing. I'll wager it'll have been the most scrutinized aircraft to have ever flown once it's re-certified, if not the safest. Plus, everyone knows about MCAS now so a crash due to it misbehaving in the case of a _double_ AoA vane failure is incredibly unlikely now.

So I think the fear is still illogical.

[0] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2013/02/14/danger-o...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#244

Post by auiya »

ijidak wrote: post #213

Flying already evokes an illogical visceral fear in most humans. (Listen to the screams, and white knuckled grasps, during strong turbulence.) The 737 Max is likely dead, forever, for passenger traffic. There's just too much for every stakeholder, but Boeing, to lose. Most likely Boeing will need state help (like the auto company bailout) while it transitions to some new post-737-Max reality. The 737 Max rise and fal…

> The 737 Max rise and fall

Too soon

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#245

Post by mrosett »

mrtksn wrote: post #54
mrosett wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely a 737 Max is orders of magnitude safer than a paraglider...

The performance and safety certification of the gliders seem more trustworthy than FAA and Boeing at this point. Also it is expected to get trained for the failure modes of the wing(unlike with the 737 max, apparently). Not a dangerous sport if you don’t take risks and have proper equipment.

6 people were killed paragliding in 2017 in the US. There haven't been any US fatalities on the 737 Max (which is the group I'm interested in, since I'm willing to believe that there are relevant differences in pilot quality across countries.)

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#247

Post by ddalex »

hackerbabz wrote: post #208
rpiguy wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who cares if the Dow plunges? The largest block of active voters, retirees and those near retirement who live off or will be living off their investments.

Is this why they should have 90% or more of their fund in bonds by now?

China has 90% of their funds in US bonds by now (called dollars), and what good does that do them ?

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#248

Post by ddalex »

env123 wrote: post #243

Why don't they suspend right now immediately, why is it set on January? What are they going to do with the previously produced, currently producing up to 31st of December, 2019? Are they going to blow them up on 2020 like fireworks to celebrate New Year?

production isn't just the plant itself - its not as simple as to send people home

production is a huge machine of suppliers delivering parts on demand - e.g. the chairs arrive exactly on the day that the chairs need to be mounted inside, otherwise is much more expensive to store, shelf, un-shelf, etc... expand thousands of times... and each supplier has its own suppliers, etc

also the tooling and all additional bits need to be correctly conserved, e.g. you can't leave sensitive measuring and calibration equipment out unused

this huge mechanism has a huge inertia. having it stopped in 2 weeks is amazing - but probably the supply chain was already working on how to stop the machinery in a way that's possible to start it again in some months

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#249

Post by mrtksn »

mrosett wrote: post #245
mrtksn wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The performance and safety certification of the gliders seem more trustworthy than FAA and Boeing at this point. Also it is expected to get trained for the failure modes of the wing(unlike with the 737 max, apparently). Not a dangerous sport if you don’t take risks and have proper equipment.

6 people were killed paragliding in 2017 in the US. There haven't been any US fatalities on the 737 Max (which is the group I'm interested in, since I'm willing to believe that there are relevant differences in pilot quality across countries.)

How many of these are due to a defect in the gliders or undocumented features of wings sold as "the same wing but glides better, no need of training"?

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#250

Post by dkarras »

ijidak wrote: post #213

Flying already evokes an illogical visceral fear in most humans. (Listen to the screams, and white knuckled grasps, during strong turbulence.) The 737 Max is likely dead, forever, for passenger traffic. There's just too much for every stakeholder, but Boeing, to lose. Most likely Boeing will need state help (like the auto company bailout) while it transitions to some new post-737-Max reality. The 737 Max rise and fal…

Yeah, I'm not even scared of flying but I'd raise a stink if they tried to push me into a 737 Max, mainly based on principle. Given how FAA tried to initially defend the status quo and kept the planes flying to not shake the boat, trust is gone. Boeing would have to convince the regular public that the problem with the plane is solved - which might be an impossible task because public do not understand what really went wrong and how it would be fixed. So someone else can sway them the other way around just as easily. People would still choose the "safer" option.
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