Earlier quoted context omitted.
No. They aren't "only looking at feedback mechanisms that reinforce cataclysm." Modelers include every feedback that they can quantify well enough to include and the ones they don't understand well enough are studied carefully to be able to work out what the uncertainties are. Scientists 50 years ago predicted that we would be at around 1C (1.8F) of warming by 2020 with a 40% over preindustrial co2 level. That's exac…
This sounds like you're saying that 50 years ago there was a single climate model, upon which significant consensus among scientists had been reached, that predicted a 1C temperature rise. I've read quite a few articles and discussions on this topic but have never heard this before. Am I misunderstanding you? If not, do you have a link that discusses this?
Browser-based climate change simulation
71–80 of 276 posts
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#72This is great and all, but what can we do about the people that don't believe this data? That's where the real issue is. I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results because their jobs depend on it and they want to continue to get funding. "Follow the money" is a common thing they say in regards to this, but also conveniently disregarded and deny that big oil/coal have…
Fact 1: The earth has been warming since the last ice age.
Fact 2: Solar output has increased recently
Fact 3: Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect. A planet that was already warming is going to continue to warm unless the energy input is changed.
Speculative: Some people believe the data has been manipulated intentionally to show a larger increase in temperature than what is actually taking place. This was 'climate gate'.
Finally, CO2 is the least of our worries. The real problem is toxic chemical pollution. Industrialized society is polluting our water and our food with toxic chemicals, slowly killing us all.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#73This is great and all, but what can we do about the people that don't believe this data? That's where the real issue is. I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results because their jobs depend on it and they want to continue to get funding. "Follow the money" is a common thing they say in regards to this, but also conveniently disregarded and deny that big oil/coal have…
I'm firmly in the camp that CO2 has little to nothing to do with the temperature of the planet. Fact 1: The earth has been warming since the last ice age. Fact 2: Solar output has increased recently Fact 3: Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect. A planet that was already warming is going to continue to warm unless the energy input is changed. Speculative: Some people believe the data has been m…
The Milankovitch cycles have crested since that warming. Without the CO2 we would be cooling.
> Fact 2: Solar output has increased recently
Citation needed. Furthermore, if you can explain how an increase in the solar output woudl warm the arctic more than the tropics, there's a Nobel waiting for you.
> Fact 3: Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect.
Water vapor has a habit of coming down as rain.
> Speculative: Some people believe the data has been manipulated
I challenge you to find a single temperature reading, longitude, lattitude, altitude and timestamp, and tell me when it was manipulated.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#74The authors don't include some extremely nasty feedback loops the appear to currently be happening. For example, methane release from permafrost melt. As a result, the simulation appears to be misleadingly optimistic. - This tool is based on climate interactive's previous one, C-Road. - in the C-Road simulation when you click on parameters -> assumptions to add parameters about methane release through permafrost melt…
While negative feedback loops are big in the media, they are not well understood and difficult to model. Also, other feedback mechanisms seem to get little attention. Are we only looking to model the feedback mechanisms that reinforce a narrative of cataclysm? Don't other feedback mechanisms exist that lessen CO2 concentrations, or temperature dissipation?
Examples: in the 70s we had a great deal of particulate smog, which effectively reduced some of the radiation hitting the Earth and camouflaged the effects of global warming. But instead of saying "hey, global warming must be a big problem since we're noticing X amount of warming EVEN WITH PARTICULATE SMOG", it just let us ignore global warming for longer.
Example: the deep oceans have been an effective heat sink and some amount of the global heat has gone into them. Again, instead of saying "global warming must be a big problem since we're noticing X amount of land warming EVEN THOUGH THERE'S A GIANT HEAT SINK", it just let us ignore global warming for longer.
So, to the extent that there are any buffers, we'll just build them into our baseline of "how bad the problem is", and therefore ALL of our surprises and feedback effects will be seen to be negative.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#75High taxation of fossil energy together with rolling-out of new energy/carbon-removal technology seem to be a real way out of this catastrophe. Does anyone have a list of startups and established companies actively working on any of those crucial solutions? Only found this through a quick Github search: https://github.com/flamato/awesome-climate-change-ressources...
Don't solutions already exist? There is a lot to do with engine size and vehicle size and weight, especially in the US. Nuclear energy and trains are possible, even if they require electrifying the railroads. Drastically reduce beef consumption is also a thing to do. Not sure about those "carbon removal" techs. A lot of the CO2 tends to go in the atmosphere. The biggest problem is a political one: You can't fight une…
Note: this is not a great idea; trains release less than a third as much co2 as a truck and electrifying cross country rail would be very expensive. You need extremely high voltage for long distance transmission, which is incompatible with pantographs (the metal things that power trains/buses from overhead).
You'd essentially need to build dedicated HVDC lines alongside all trunk routes, with regular substations (which are immensely expensive for HVDC) to inject power into the lines. Cross country HVDC would be really great for the grid, but it would be better to build a dedicated solution and forget about the trains. For context, the transmission losses for electricity cause ~2x more CO2 than all trains.
There are just better things to spend money on. Even if we put cold war levels on investment into reducing CO2 theres still better things to do, like dealing with landfill emissions, land use, rehabilitating environments etc.
> Not sure about those "carbon removal" techs. A lot of the CO2 tends to go in the atmosphere.
One way of looking at it: exhaust gases are 29% CO2 (from oxygen being burnt). Air is .4% CO2. Removing CO2 from air is, bare minimum, 75x more complex than preventing it.
> You can't fight unemployment and inequality and try to reduce emissions. I can see ideology being a big problem when dealing with climate change.
IMO that is a profoundly unhelpful way of looking at it. The money spent on the Iraq war would be enough to buy enough batteries to store ALL US ELECTRICITY for full two days. People didn't think twice about sprinting into war. Renewable energy is a largely trivial cost. People need to be convinced to throw scraps at it before we scare them with real changes.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#76This is great and all, but what can we do about the people that don't believe this data? That's where the real issue is. I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results because their jobs depend on it and they want to continue to get funding. "Follow the money" is a common thing they say in regards to this, but also conveniently disregarded and deny that big oil/coal have…
Organize the people who do believe it to exert pressure.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#77On a slightly more serious note, can we tame volcanoes by somehow - ideally - producing energy and ... prevent eruptions, somewhat comparable to the way earth wires actively do so with lightning strikes?
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#78If you made a model of the world today back in 1920, it would be comical.
Imagine you went back to say 1920 and told people that in 2020 they would be surrounded by talking televisions, phones, that we'd be sending people and ships to the moon, mars, etc. and that they could instantly talk to any person on the planet (including loved ones on the other side of the world), they would not believe you.
In the last 100 years (heck even the last 20-30) we've invented a staggering amount of new and interesting things.
In the last 100 years people created interstate highway systems, nuclear power, the internet, radio data networks, self guided weapons, self guided vehicles, robots, rudimentary AI, etc...
What if in 100 years we make fusion work (probably for space travel/war?) and then we replace the existing infrastructure with that. And what if we can do enough carbon removal or storage to solve this?
Any model that doesn't model the history altering inventiveness of humans is not an accurate model at all. It's just really fancy navel gazing.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#79This is great and all, but what can we do about the people that don't believe this data? That's where the real issue is. I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results because their jobs depend on it and they want to continue to get funding. "Follow the money" is a common thing they say in regards to this, but also conveniently disregarded and deny that big oil/coal have…
But this app alone doesn't do a good job of convincing anyone of anything. For starters, it's just a bunch of graphs. I doubt most people who deny climate change are going to understand what they're looking at.
But most importantly, there's no straightforward way for anyone to verify this data on their own, and it seems like this app is kind of bullshitting the numbers. For example, how could they possibly know that "highly subsidized" bioenergy will result in exactly 0.1F increase in global temperatures 80 years from now?
> I have a bunch of coworkers that think scientists are making up this data and skewing results
Can't you see their reasoning after using this app?
I'm not saying this app is useless or full of lies. Not at all. But I think it can only really work as part of an education session or presentation, where someone can actually explain the reasoning behind that graph, where the data comes from, how they arrived at the conclusions, etc, instead of just throwing it on the internet and hoping it reaches republican farmers on Facebook.
Re: Browser-based climate change simulation
#80High taxation of fossil energy together with rolling-out of new energy/carbon-removal technology seem to be a real way out of this catastrophe. Does anyone have a list of startups and established companies actively working on any of those crucial solutions? Only found this through a quick Github search: https://github.com/flamato/awesome-climate-change-ressources...