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Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

wsj.com

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Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#71

Post by cletus »

So if you happen to hold any stock in any budget airlines (Southwest, Ryanair, that sort of thing) I would seriously consider dumping it now.

If the Max doesn't return to service or even if its grounding is prolonged this represents an existential threat to the likes of Southwest as part of the way they maintain their low margins is by having a fleet with one and only one type rating.

Other airlines (eg American) that bet on the Max (instead of, say, the A320neo) may suffer in the short to medium term too but at least they're better equipped to deal with this as they already deal with having a heterogeneous fleet.

Personally I never wanted to fly on the Max even before the crashes because (at least on American) they're even more cramped the the A321s and older 737s and 767s. I mean, who want that to shave off a few dollars? It's already uncomfortable enough. After the crashes? Why would I?

The leadership of Boeing needs to be ousted and, honestly, the DoJ should see if there was any criminal wrongdoing here as the response from Boeing (ie trying to blame the pilots and refusing to ground the plane) was abysmal. The fish rots from the head and if CEO pay is justified by the results they get (cough) then they're also responsible when it goes horribly wrong, which it did.

The big winner here is Airbus.

And yes, I fully expect Boeing to attempt to rebrand and salvage the Max. Personally, I hope it never flies again.

EDIT: removed EasyJet as they operate an Airbus not 737 fleet. Southwest and Ryanair however fly only 737 variants.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#73

Post by acqq »

snuxoll wrote: post #60
CharlesColeman wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ban the aircraft. Criminally charge everyone involved in suppressing it's serious issues and forcing it through approval. That's going a bit too far. Banning MCAS and requiring pilots to undergo MAX-specific training and certification seems more reasonable (and less wasteful) response to the issues. I would support criminal charges against the chief decision-makers that led Boeing into this mess, going all the way…

The 737 Max is doomed without the MCAS, the entire reason it exists is to keep the same type rating the same to keep pilots from needing to re-certify. Airlines will have serious reason to consider other manufacturers if they can’t just throw pilots behind the stick with minimal training.

> Airlines will have serious reason to consider other manufacturers if they can’t just throw pilots behind the stick with minimal training.

Hopefully the regulators will seriously investigate if it is safe to assume that the retraining is not needed even with modified MCAS.

Just claiming that pilots will easier deactivate MCAS, or that, after the "fix", MCAS will deactivate itself if there is some problem should not be enough: without MCAS running the plane just doesn't behave as the one for which the pilots were trained.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#74

Post by supernova87a »

I was imagining just to myself whether the jobs or economic impact of this production suspension by Boeing would be similar or not even close to the disruption caused by the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 fiasco.

In this case, the jobs are much higher value per person, and the supply chain much more dramatic -- big factories and machinery idled. But the Samsung battery disaster probably affected 10s of thousands of workers, and caused Samsung a reported $15B (?) writedown of value.

But then thinking again, Boeing has experience with bad batteries too... Maybe the two companies should share PR disaster recovery playbooks.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#75

Post by mrtksn »

Skunkleton wrote: post #70
mrtksn wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The performance and safety certification of the gliders seem more trustworthy than FAA and Boeing at this point. Also it is expected to get trained for the failure modes of the wing(unlike with the 737 max, apparently). Not a dangerous sport if you don’t take risks and have proper equipment.

According to a random study I found on the internet, your are at a 50x risk of death in a paraglider vs in car. I don't think there really is a comparison here between paragliding and flying in a MAX 8.

Deaths don’t occur randomly. This number might be relevant for insurance companies but your death can be greatly delayed by flying only with stabile equipment in good weather.

The same goes with the transportation, you can greatly reduce your risks by picking your equipment. Not All cars are 50X safer than paragliding and you can choose on which side of the average you will be.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#77

Post by pcurve »

ryanisnan wrote: post #19

I'm surprised that the market hasn't reacted more negatively towards Boeing regarding the Max 8 disaster. Airlines operate on razor-thin margins (~1 to 2%), and several users of the Max 8 have had significant portions of their fleet out of service as a result. Westjet [1], for example runs 124 planes currently. 13 of which are the Max 8. Over 10% of their fleet. Southwest Airlines [2], for example, runs 748 planes, 3…

They are down 25% from the high. That's a lot.

But if you look at their 50 year chart, it had recent run up of 3-4x in just past 4-5 years.

It's quite possible there's some serious downside, but only through series of bad news like this.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#78

Post by clintonb »

cletus wrote: post #71

So if you happen to hold any stock in any budget airlines (Southwest, Ryanair, that sort of thing) I would seriously consider dumping it now. If the Max doesn't return to service or even if its grounding is prolonged this represents an existential threat to the likes of Southwest as part of the way they maintain their low margins is by having a fleet with one and only one type rating. Other airlines (eg American) tha…

> If the Max doesn't return to service or even if its grounding is prolonged this represents an existential threat to the likes of Southwest as part of the way they maintain their low margins is by having a fleet with one and only one type rating.

The 737 MAX has the same rating as every 737 that Southwest and others fly. Part of the MCAS controversy stems from the fact that Boeing did not discuss it to avoid needing a new type rating. See https://www.aviationlawmonitor.com/2019/03/accident-investig... for more information.

Re: Boeing to Suspend 737 Max Production in January

#80

Post by starfallg »

cletus wrote: post #71

So if you happen to hold any stock in any budget airlines (Southwest, Ryanair, that sort of thing) I would seriously consider dumping it now. If the Max doesn't return to service or even if its grounding is prolonged this represents an existential threat to the likes of Southwest as part of the way they maintain their low margins is by having a fleet with one and only one type rating. Other airlines (eg American) tha…

Easyjet used to have 737-200/300/700s, but they were completely phased out several years ago.

Now their fleet is entirely Airbus A32x, which are fly-by-wire and unlikely to run into the type certification issues that the 737 did.

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