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If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

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Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#161

Post by oarsinsync »

joshfraser wrote: post #75
account73466 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Today, Bitcoin has little to no adoption as a currency, that is true.

Yeah it's not the digital cash we were promised. But it's great as a store of value, censorship-resistant money, and one of the fastest and cheapest ways to do cross-border remittances.

> it's great as a store of value

BTC/USD is down 18% in the last 30 days. That's not a great store of value.

> censorship-resistant money

Correct, but only within its own economy. The moment you want to convert to "real" money (fiat), you're out of luck

> and one of the fastest and cheapest ways to do cross-border remittances

Depends on which borders you're talking about. Within first world western countries with similar monetary policies, TransferWise is generally cheaper and quicker. Within the EU, SEPA fits that bill too.

(Disclaimer: I am long bitcoin)

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#162

Post by noxer »

account73466 wrote: post #31

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

Markecap is a meaningless value for a "currency". Comparing it to the marketcaps of companies is even more meaningless. And comparing Bitcoin trade volume with stock trade volume is another meaningless thing.

It's very common in the crypto space to use all kinds of correctly calculated nonsense.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#163

Post by noxer »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #83
whack wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market cap for UNH isn't calculated using future cash flows. The market cap for any security, by definition, is price-per-security * number-of-securities. Similar valuations also exist for gold-funds, which also have no cash flows. You can argue that asset prices should be derived from future cash flows, and hence, both Bitcoin and gold should be almost worthless. But that has nothing to do with the formula for c…

> The market cap for any security, by definition, is price-per-security number-of-securities Market cap is an equities concept. The market value of a series of bonds isn't the issuance's market cap. The notional value of all options on a symbol is only useful to operations/settlement folk. For Bitcoin, "market cap" is meaningless. It's too thinly and opaquely traded. Better would be flow of funds, i.e. value of new m…

There is no new money in flow or out flow in bitcoin. It's a zero sum game. If someone buys bitcoin his money goes to the person(s) who sold. Nothing goes "in Bitcoin".

I agree mcap is meaningless just like they mcap of USD/EUR/GOLD etc. It doesn't matter if is large or small it just has no meaning just like the price per unit has no meaning. Mcap is just a multiplication of the price.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#166

Post by noxer »

this_user wrote: post #43
ur-whale wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's nothing like the gold standard. What made the gold standard a bad idea does not apply to Bitcoin.

You mean that there is a cap on the supply that cannot keep pace with the growth of the real economy?

The cap is irrelevant. Instead of printing more the value per unit goes up in the end it does the same it adjust for growth just fine. It's just not practical for a fiat currency to change it's value depending on the economy situation. If for example the USD would have a fix cap and its value would swing with the economy, people would speculate with it. At peaks everyone would want to buy and at the lows everyone would pay salaries and debs etc. the growth isn't the problem the swings and uncertainty about the value makes it unusable for a currency. Bitcoin doesn't have this problem is kinda like gold no one really want to pay with it (beside the bitcoin maxis).

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#167

Post by account73466 »

noxer wrote: post #162
account73466 wrote: post #31

Bitcoin has about $133 bil marketcap. NYSE symbols with the twice (2X) this marketcaps according to Yahoo Finance: UNH (UnitedHealth Group) mcap: $262 bil, trading volume: $1.2 bil KO (COCA-COLA) mcap: $231 bil, trading volume: $0.6 bil MRK (MERCK) mcap: $225 bil trading volume: $0.7 bil Therefore, for Bitcoin to be tradeable as similar stocks it has to show $0.25-0.5 bil for $133 bil mcap or $0.5-1.0 bil for $250 bi…

Markecap is a meaningless value for a "currency". Comparing it to the marketcaps of companies is even more meaningless. And comparing Bitcoin trade volume with stock trade volume is another meaningless thing. It's very common in the crypto space to use all kinds of correctly calculated nonsense.

Bitcoin is not a currency in its common sense, it is a speculative asset. Call everything meaningless is pretty meaningless as well.

>> Comparing it to the marketcaps of companies is even more meaningless

Wrong.

>> And comparing Bitcoin trade volume with stock trade volume is another meaningless thing.

Wrong.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#168

Post by account73466 »

noxer wrote: post #163
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The market cap for any security, by definition, is price-per-security number-of-securities Market cap is an equities concept. The market value of a series of bonds isn't the issuance's market cap. The notional value of all options on a symbol is only useful to operations/settlement folk. For Bitcoin, "market cap" is meaningless. It's too thinly and opaquely traded. Better would be flow of funds, i.e. value of new m…

There is no new money in flow or out flow in bitcoin. It's a zero sum game. If someone buys bitcoin his money goes to the person(s) who sold. Nothing goes "in Bitcoin". I agree mcap is meaningless just like they mcap of USD/EUR/GOLD etc. It doesn't matter if is large or small it just has no meaning just like the price per unit has no meaning. Mcap is just a multiplication of the price.

>> Mcap is just a multiplication of the price.

Who claimed the opposite?

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#169

Post by noxer »

account73466 wrote: post #168
noxer wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no new money in flow or out flow in bitcoin. It's a zero sum game. If someone buys bitcoin his money goes to the person(s) who sold. Nothing goes "in Bitcoin". I agree mcap is meaningless just like they mcap of USD/EUR/GOLD etc. It doesn't matter if is large or small it just has no meaning just like the price per unit has no meaning. Mcap is just a multiplication of the price.

>> Mcap is just a multiplication of the price. Who claimed the opposite?

No one? But why would anyone "see" any information in the mcap value if the price value doesn't have that info a multiplication of it certainly doesn't have it either. Mcap is literally the price tag on all coins while the price tag on a single coins already is arbitrary and has no meaning.

Re: If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t

#170

Post by this_user »

noxer wrote: post #166
this_user wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean that there is a cap on the supply that cannot keep pace with the growth of the real economy?

The cap is irrelevant. Instead of printing more the value per unit goes up in the end it does the same it adjust for growth just fine. It's just not practical for a fiat currency to change it's value depending on the economy situation. If for example the USD would have a fix cap and its value would swing with the economy, people would speculate with it. At peaks everyone would want to buy and at the lows everyone wou…

You sound like you know nothing about how currencies actually work. Both exchange rate and purchasing power of the USD do change over time. People do speculate with currencies. And the cap is absolutely not irrelevant if you were to have a global Bitcoin economy. The US would not be able to set the prices on its own, and those would instead be determined by the global market forces. This means the country loses and and all ability to do monetary policy.
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