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Show HN: Learn When to Quit

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Re: Show HN: Learn When to Quit

#31
post #20
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Semi-relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law

People, I just ran this simple script on my terminal using Node and I got a pretty uniform result. a = {} for(let i = 0; i My result: { '0': 9917, '1': 10015, '2': 9957, '3': 10107, '4': 10019, '5': 10037, '6': 10120, '7': 9914, '8': 10042, '9': 9872 }

> real-life sets of numerical data

Today you learned: Node’s random number generator isn’t selecting from a real-life set of numerical data

Re: Show HN: Learn When to Quit

#32
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People, I just ran this simple script on my terminal using Node and I got a pretty uniform result. a = {} for(let i = 0; i My result: { '0': 9917, '1': 10015, '2': 9957, '3': 10107, '4': 10019, '5': 10037, '6': 10120, '7': 9914, '8': 10042, '9': 9872 }

> real-life sets of numerical data Today you learned: Node’s random number generator isn’t selecting from a real-life set of numerical data

yeah, I just mixed two informations. I thought the other person said my algorithm would be biased towards small numbers cause I use the JS random function to pick the number of decimal places for the number

Re: Show HN: Learn When to Quit

#33
There is a huge problem with the "optimal stopping strategy" presented in the YouTube video: "sample the first 37% of the options, and then choose the first subsequent option that is better than the best option found in the sample."

By definition, there is a 37% chance of the best option being in your initial sample. You would then futilely browse through all the other options, without ever picking anything.

Ie, if you applied this strategy to "finding the love of your life", as the video suggests, there is a 37% chance of you dying completely alone. That doesn't seem like a very optimal strategy to me.

Re: Show HN: Learn When to Quit

#34
post #33

There is a huge problem with the "optimal stopping strategy" presented in the YouTube video: "sample the first 37% of the options, and then choose the first subsequent option that is better than the best option found in the sample." By definition, there is a 37% chance of the best option being in your initial sample. You would then futilely browse through all the other options, without ever picking anything. Ie, if y…

I haven't seen the video but if they are talking about the secretary problem the caveat is that you can't go back to the previous options. You can do that when trying to a find a partner... sometimes.

Re: Show HN: Learn When to Quit

#35
post #33

There is a huge problem with the "optimal stopping strategy" presented in the YouTube video: "sample the first 37% of the options, and then choose the first subsequent option that is better than the best option found in the sample." By definition, there is a 37% chance of the best option being in your initial sample. You would then futilely browse through all the other options, without ever picking anything. Ie, if y…

> Ie, if you applied this strategy to "finding the love of your life", as the video suggests, there is a 37% chance of you dying completely alone. That doesn't seem like a very optimal strategy to me.

I don't think that's correct. You'd set a period of time such as 1 year or 3 years or 5 years or something during which time you will go on n amount of dates total, out of which you reject the first 37%. Then you use that as a basis for the remaining time of that period of time. If you haven't found anyone better by the last date of that time, and you have chemistry with them, you choose that last person to be the love of your life.

And if you don't have chemistry with the last person or you end up breaking up with that person, then you go on dates until you find the next person you have chemistry with and you choose them to be the love of your life.

So it's not like dying completely alone is a probable outcome that would result from the optimal stopping strategy itself.

Re: Show HN: Learn When to Quit

#36
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> real-life sets of numerical data Today you learned: Node’s random number generator isn’t selecting from a real-life set of numerical data

yeah, I just mixed two informations. I thought the other person said my algorithm would be biased towards small numbers cause I use the JS random function to pick the number of decimal places for the number

Yep, sorry, didn't mean to say this directly applied, just a neat concept that's somewhat related.

Re: Show HN: Learn When to Quit

#37
post #16
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"The implementation first chooses the length of the number, then fills in the digits. This makes it biased towards smaller numbers." Why?

Semi-relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law

Also relevant (and in my mind, the underlying explanation for Benford's Law):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffreys_prior

Re: Show HN: Learn When to Quit

#38
post #4

This is the Secretary Problem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem

Sometimes when I’m bored and out walking, I play this game with cars. I pretend I’m allowed to keep any one of the next ten cars that go past, but I need to accept or reject it the moment I see it.

If the second car is a Volvo do I pick it, or hold out waiting for a Mercedes? If I pick that Mercedes, am I going to regret it in thirty seconds when a Rolls rolls past? Am I going to get stuck with an old Hyundai due to my inability to settle?

Re: Show HN: Learn When to Quit

#39
post #11

Madden: "Now with no timeouts I think that the Patriots, with this field position they have to just run the clock out, you have to play for overtime now. I don't think you want to force anything here, you don't want to do anything stupid because you have no timeouts and you are backed up." Summerall: Brady is in the shotgun and he's gonna throw it ..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC4qgrUgF9I&feature=youtu.be... A…

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