Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment • Hacker News Board

Re: Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment

#61

Post by ghaff » Sat, Dec 07, 2019, 4:17 PM UTC

dylan604 wrote: post #44

ghaff wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are other RSS readers but RSS as a stand-alone thing that people use (where “people” was always somewhat of a niche) has largely withered in the face of social media. Much as the tech crowd likes to complain about Reader’s Denise, it was at least in part a response to RSS’s decline not the cause.

So you're giving G credit for recognizing the world progressing before the rest of the world realizes? Or that the users just adapted to the loss of the product? Just trying to compare G killing software to Apple killing hardware. The transition away from SCSI and ADB to things like USB/FireWire/Thunderbolt, USB-A to USB-C, etc riles the masses during the transition, but ultimately it is the better decision.

To a first approximation, the "rest of the world" never knew what RSS was. Yes, Google kills random projects that have a passionate fan base. But they're mostly not products that actually have broad mainstream appeal.

I'm not really giving Google "credit" for anything. It's just that a lot of people want to identify a bogeyman in RSS's demise. But that bogeyman is really the collective us. There are still plenty of RSS feeds and at least a couple of decent clients for anyone who want to use RSS today.

Re: Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment

#62

Post by lioeters » Sat, Dec 07, 2019, 4:19 PM UTC

abalone wrote: post #34

mantap wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems way more idealistic somehow. More likely, with a more standard corporate governance Google will begin to rot from within. Apple certainly made more profits under Cook than Jobs, but innovation has slowed to a crawl and he has failed to diversify Apple away from having one product (instead he just added a bunch of accessory products and services). The last thing Google needs is to double down on ads, it tak…

> innovation has slowed to a crawl This is so typical of Apple criticism. They did do well with the iPhone and Mac that now any new innovations seem boring in comparison. It’s wrong. The Apple Watch came out under Cook. That is more than an “accessory.” It’s a new platform, new OS variant, etc. It’s dominating smart watches. The AirPods are pretty innovative in terms of the fine grained details that have made them su…

From a long-term user's perspective, that Apple magic is fading quickly to reveal the banality underneath. Same with Google. The elves have left Middle Earth.

Re: Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment

#63

Post by basch » Sat, Dec 07, 2019, 4:22 PM UTC

tyingq wrote: post #31

basch wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why is it assumed they wont appoint a new Google CEO in the next 6 months to a year?

If I were Sundar Pichai, I'd probably view being the Alphabet Chief, and not the Google Chief, as a downgrade from just being the Google Chief. That was fine for Larry and Sergey with their founder's stock and deliberate desire to be somewhat disconnected. I don't think Sundar has either of those.

IF his forte is operations, more Ballmer and Cook to a visionary, it makes sense. Put a new visionary in charge of Google, and start focusing on turning the other bets into self sustaining companies. Maybe split google up a bit too, make CGP its own bet. You could even make the case for Youtube, Nest/Pixel, Doubleclick, maybe Android. Refocus google on being an information sorting and calling tool, whether that be search, shopping, maps, gmail, photos.

Google could benefit a bit from the Bezos API memo AND a bit from the Jobsesque "singular vision not kitchen sink of requested features" refinement. Paring google down and giving sects more singular visions, while encouraging cohesiveness might need a Bain Capital type chopman, but after that is said and done, Alphabet Chief should be more important than Google Chief.

Pichai's job should be demarcing responsibility and org chart, giving focus.

Re: Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment

#64

Post by lukasLansky » Sat, Dec 07, 2019, 4:24 PM UTC

bayarrhea wrote: post #36

drawkbox wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is in the value creation phase, business/marketing/analysts may not value it as much but there is a goldmine under it. Waymo may not be a revenue behemoth currently but there is immense value there not only to self-driving but to maps improvement and more. I am not a fan of software patents but they have surpassed Toyota in patents [1] and there are hundreds of patents from Waymo [2]. Everyday in Arizona Waymo…

That’s a long way of saying Waymo isn’t making any money.

No, in the context of the conversation, it's an argument for a higher valuation of the entity.

The value of every corporation primarily reflects expectation of future profits. That's the reason P/E ratios differs a lot even for established companies.

Re: Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment

#65

Post by scarface74 » Sat, Dec 07, 2019, 4:25 PM UTC

mantap wrote: post #14

dzdt wrote: post #5

As usual, I like Matt Levine's take. [1] Page and Brin ran Alphabet as a highly funded system of moonshot programs with near-infinite runway to make profits, which is unusual or unique. Basically it only worked that way because Page and Brin were idealistic visionary gazillionaires who were bored of thinking about the somewhat dirty business of selling targetted ads. With a more standard corporate governance under a…

That seems way more idealistic somehow. More likely, with a more standard corporate governance Google will begin to rot from within. Apple certainly made more profits under Cook than Jobs, but innovation has slowed to a crawl and he has failed to diversify Apple away from having one product (instead he just added a bunch of accessory products and services). The last thing Google needs is to double down on ads, it tak…

Since Tim has taken charge, they’ve become much more diversified. The watch and the AirPod business is larger and will probably be longer lasting than the iPod business, the iPad is much more than a big iPhone, and they are in services.

Compare this chart to Google’s

https://sixcolors.com/images/content/2019/financials-2019-7-...

The iPhone was a once in a lifetime thing. Even in 2007 there were 1 billion phones a year being sold (Apple said they wanted to capture 1% of the market by selling 10 million in its first year).

By definition, what electronic market can be much larger than one that has a 80%+ penetration?

Re: Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment

#66

Post by scarface74 » Sat, Dec 07, 2019, 4:32 PM UTC

lioeters wrote: post #62

abalone wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> innovation has slowed to a crawl This is so typical of Apple criticism. They did do well with the iPhone and Mac that now any new innovations seem boring in comparison. It’s wrong. The Apple Watch came out under Cook. That is more than an “accessory.” It’s a new platform, new OS variant, etc. It’s dominating smart watches. The AirPods are pretty innovative in terms of the fine grained details that have made them su…

From a long-term user's perspective, that Apple magic is fading quickly to reveal the banality underneath. Same with Google. The elves have left Middle Earth.

The Apple Watch is much more impressive technically than the iPad. The iPad was easy once you had the iPhone and once it was introduced, was easily copied hardware wise. The amount of technology in the Apple Watch still hasn’t been duplicated in the same small form factor.

Re: Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment

#67

Post by _Understated_ » Sat, Dec 07, 2019, 4:33 PM UTC

vrc wrote: post #33

ben_w wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It takes us two minutes to block ads. Everyone on this site is a tiny minority who finds this sort of thing easy. https://www.nngroup.com/articles/computer-skill-levels/

It's shockingly high. Most western countries see an average of 26% - 40% ad block rates (by pageview) across the web. Some sites skewing to an older, less tech savvy audience, see between 8% and 15%, while tech heavy sites can go as high as 92% of pageviews being ad blocked. It's actually crazy that adblock rates in developing countries like India and Indonesia can actually be much higher on average because of UC Bro…

I'd love to hear more about your experiences in this field... we don't hear much fron the inside (as it were!)

Re: Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment

#68

Post by scarface74 » Sat, Dec 07, 2019, 4:37 PM UTC

drawkbox wrote: post #57

bayarrhea wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a long way of saying Waymo isn’t making any money.

Money making products don't start making efficient money day one. Value creation in this area takes time and it is not quick when dealing with physical/driving products. The patents alone will probably be worth more than the effort. Google is a data/information company and you are completely disregarding the impact Waymo has on that especially for the Maps product. Waymo is also already a market leader in their space…

Amazon retail is still a low margin, low profit business and is not a good example.

AWS on the other hand is printing money.

Google hasn’t had a non advertising based hit besides maybe Android since it’s inception and even that has only made $23 billion a year in profit from its inception until the Oracle trial where the number was revealed.

Re: Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment

#69

Post by OnlineGladiator » Sat, Dec 07, 2019, 4:37 PM UTC

abalone wrote: post #34

mantap wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems way more idealistic somehow. More likely, with a more standard corporate governance Google will begin to rot from within. Apple certainly made more profits under Cook than Jobs, but innovation has slowed to a crawl and he has failed to diversify Apple away from having one product (instead he just added a bunch of accessory products and services). The last thing Google needs is to double down on ads, it tak…

> innovation has slowed to a crawl This is so typical of Apple criticism. They did do well with the iPhone and Mac that now any new innovations seem boring in comparison. It’s wrong. The Apple Watch came out under Cook. That is more than an “accessory.” It’s a new platform, new OS variant, etc. It’s dominating smart watches. The AirPods are pretty innovative in terms of the fine grained details that have made them su…

> The Apple Watch came out under Cook. That is more than an “accessory.” It’s a new platform, new OS variant, etc. It’s dominating smart watches.

The Apple Watch is literally designed to be an accessory to the iPhone - you can't use most of its features without an iPhone. I wanted one for my Android phone but tough shit for me.

If you like it as a product that's fine, but it is absolutely an accessory to an iPhone because you can barely use it without one.

Re: Google management shuffle points to retreat from Alphabet experiment

#70

Post by scarface74 » Sat, Dec 07, 2019, 4:39 PM UTC

basch wrote: post #63

tyingq wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were Sundar Pichai, I'd probably view being the Alphabet Chief, and not the Google Chief, as a downgrade from just being the Google Chief. That was fine for Larry and Sergey with their founder's stock and deliberate desire to be somewhat disconnected. I don't think Sundar has either of those.

IF his forte is operations, more Ballmer and Cook to a visionary, it makes sense. Put a new visionary in charge of Google, and start focusing on turning the other bets into self sustaining companies. Maybe split google up a bit too, make CGP its own bet. You could even make the case for Youtube, Nest/Pixel, Doubleclick, maybe Android. Refocus google on being an information sorting and calling tool, whether that be se…

A “visionary” without any operations expertise is useless. Cook has as much to do with the rise of Apple as Jobs. Jobs wouldn’t have had the supply chain experience to manufacturer 100 million iPods at his height or all the products that it ships now.