The IFF referenced in the article seems like a great example of how good-intentioned changes to incentive structures can have very warped outcomes, potentially years later. These kinds of effects keep popping up for me, even in industry contexts (e.g. stack ranking). Are there accepted mechanisms for systematically identifying these knock-on effects, and if so, what are they and how can they be more broadly applied?…
In terms of lawmaking, the usual way to deal with this problem isn't with front-end analysis, but rather by adding a "sunset provision" (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_provision ). That's a clause in a bill that requires it to be re-authorized periodically in order to stay in effect. If a law with a sunset provision ends up causing unintended consequences, then lawmakers can let it die just by doing nothing…
Yes, this would lead to the legislature spending a lot of time just reauthorizing existing legislation, but I would argue that the majority of new legislation being passed in modern representative democracies would be better off as revamps of existing legislation anyway.