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The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

blogs.harvard.edu

171–180 of 189 posts

Re: The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

#171
post #160
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DNS is one of those things, False. do note that neither of these are exclusively owned by the US, False. but rather that the US owns the responsibility to maintain these services that we all use. False. The US has no responsibility, they own it. even the dollar as reserve is a fickle thing that could change if the rest of us choose to. And until other countries choose to, they get to deal with the consequences of the…

> False. False. False. The US has no responsibility, they own it. They own it and share it, they get control and everyone else gets a service, the moment they abuse their control, everyone else will stop their dependence on it. that means they have a responsibility to keep this balance or lose control of it. > Good luck, there's plenty of software in Europe with hardcoded URLs, and there's no chance of getting operat…

the moment they abuse their control, everyone else will stop their dependence on it. that means they have a responsibility to keep this balance or lose control of it.

They're already abusing their control, all other countries are helpless.

legacy systems are mainly an issues for hospitals, and if necessary, the governments (who pays for these hospitals anyway) would afford a switch. the US is more vulnerable for something like this since their hospitals are private.

I guarantee you it'd take more than a decade to switch from ICANN.

the US performs coups in third-world countries struggling with stability. they have never attempted a coup in a well organized country with strong ties.

This is ahistorical.

both of these are building their own as we speak. for the very reason we're having this argument.

Russia isn't building a genuine alternative, and China, while they already have a genuine alternative, would be committing suicide to deprecate any service controlled by ICANN.

Re: The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's fair, but it's not proof that ISOC wasn't running .org in the public interest, only that if they had been, they stopped when they sold it to a party that looks set not to. "They were so good right until the point where they stopped being so good."

>but it's not proof that ISOC wasn't running .org in the public interest, only that if they had been, they stopped The action selling it to another org without that duty is abdication of that duty and they should not have had authority to sell it. The specific circumstances only make it worse.

Talk about not responsive. All you did here is restate your previous point.

Re: The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>but it's not proof that ISOC wasn't running .org in the public interest, only that if they had been, they stopped The action selling it to another org without that duty is abdication of that duty and they should not have had authority to sell it. The specific circumstances only make it worse.

Talk about not responsive. All you did here is restate your previous point.

All you did was state that their previous actions aren't proof of the future, when we are talking about them having sold .org already.

Their abdicating stewardship to a group that doesn't have a duty to steward is evidence enough and saying "well they used to" is off topic and not interesting. No need for new arguments when you have none.

Re: The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

#174
post #164
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> even the dollar as reserve is a fickle thing that could change if the rest of us choose to. No, you have this all backwards. Let's take a hypothetical country -- Fredonia with it's Fredonian Franc. The government of Fredonia decides "I want to be a global reserve currency!". How would they go about accomplishing that? First, let's define what it means to be a global reserve currency. What it means is that other res…

the whole war in the middle east has been because the euro was about to become the new reserve currency, everyone, including china, was on board of this move - everyone, except the US. this is after the fact that nixon burned all of europe's gold in the vietnam war, the gold, which was supposed to balance the dollar. so yes, the current fallback is the US bonds but it isn't stable and the only reason the US maintains…

This is pure nonsense. You might as well that the person who is the biggest creditor is the same as the biggest debtor via some horseshoe theory of finance. The Euro can't be a reserve currency because the Eurozone cannot support large capital inflows, which is because Germany is dependent on having an export based economy. Seriously, you are confusing plus with minus, addition with subtraction. To be an issuer of reserves requires that you allow foreigners to run surpluses against you. Thus no currency zone that requires running surpluses is going to be a reserve currency as long as plus is not the same as minus.

Re: The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

#175
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a bad deal unless you actually need ten years to migrate, which you probably don't. Better off to take a year or three at the 10% annual increase and then stop paying entirely (~364% of the existing rate for three years, with payments made in the future rather than the present) than to pay 1000% of the existing rate right now.

10 years is a long time, maybe until than its bought back to non-profit, you never know. Also it allows you the luxury of starting worrying about your migration later. If you could invest that money now with more than 4-5 times US interest rates (which is the price increase I would expect), then I would consider this a bad deal.

If it's reverted back to non-profit then prepaying is still a bad proposition because then you're paying today the same amount you would be able to pay years from now -- and paying it to the for-profit entity now instead of the non-profit entity later.

And I don't see any reason to expect the annual probability that it's transitioned back to a non-profit to be a lot different in the future than it is right now, which means that if it makes sense to migrate then it doesn't make sense to wait. Especially when continued use of the domain only increases the migration cost as it gets further distributed as your active contact information.

Re: The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

#176
post #163
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> even the dollar as reserve is a fickle thing that could change if the rest of us choose to. No, you have this all backwards. Let's take a hypothetical country -- Fredonia with it's Fredonian Franc. The government of Fredonia decides "I want to be a global reserve currency!". How would they go about accomplishing that? First, let's define what it means to be a global reserve currency. What it means is that other res…

Absolutely fascinating. I never thought about it this way. This would also imply that the Fredonian government would be highly incentivized to run at a constant deficit, more so than other governments, because its cost of capital would be lower. Your argument is so convincing that I am having a hard time seeing what the US gets out of all this. Cheaper capital and cheaper imports, I suppose. But surely there is a rea…

Yes, the Fredonian government is going to end up running a deficit not just because interest rates will be lower, but also to make up for the loss of income as a result of the current account balance. Importing decreases income and exporting increases income, which is why GDP includes a trade term of exports-imports. In the US, these are all the people who drop out of the labor market or go on disability as a result of being displaced by foreign imports, creating a loss of the taxpayer base and an increase in benefit payments. Thus imports are a drag on the fiscal balance as well.

This is the same reason why a policy of "inflating the currency" is not going to work for the US, and instead capital controls are the policy option of choice. I don't want to get the goldbugs in this thread, but the quantity of money is demand determined by the private sector, and the policy variable that the government has is the overnight interest rate. This means that "inflating the currency", or trying to create inflation, is done by lowering the policy rate. Fighting inflation consists of raising this rate. So when you say "inflate the currency", what you mean is lower the rate of interest. But that rate can only be lowered to zero, and more importantly other nations will respond by lowering their interest rates. This process is called "competitive devaluation", because what matters for the trade balance is the relative value of the dollar with other currencies, not the absolute value. The US cannot unilaterally set the relative value, and devaluation by US will be met with devaluation by our trading partners.

Moreover devaluation is very risky and might substantially increase the trade deficit, because when the rest of the world devalues their currency to match, it is much more likely that they are the ones who will suffer a currency crisis than the US. So this policy would risk destabilizing the currencies of our trading partners, leading to financial crisis and another flight to the USD as a safe haven as investors flee the currencies of our trading partners and rush to the US.

On the other hand capital controls is something that can be done unilaterally and cannot be countered in the same way as competitive devaluation. If we impose a tax, of say, 2% on foreign holders of US assets, and the rest of the world retaliates with their own tax, then this is unlikely to cause a global currency crisis, it will cause cross border capital flows to suddenly reverse in which US investors pull their money out of foreign nations while foreign investors pull their money out of the US and bring it back home. Because foreigners invested more in the US than the other way around, this should result in more capital flowing into the rest of the world rather than the kind of capital flight that creates a currency crisis.

In terms of how we got to this point, that's a tough question because you are asking me to assert motives and plans, when all I can reliably do is describe the current situation we are in. If I were to guess, I think it was not intentional. When the UK was the dominant economic power and the pound was the reserve currency the UK also suffered from chronic trade deficits, but the size of the imbalances were so much smaller before WW1 than today. What is happening now is truly unprecedented in the economic history of the world -- the depth of global supply chains, and the size of global trade imbalances is not something anyone would have predicted. So my guess is that the US maintained open capital markets for political and historical reasons -- because England did, and because market liberalism was a dominant economic philosophy. The US maintained rule of law for similar cultural and historical reasons. Then, after WW2, ours was by far the dominant economy, and everyone wanted to invest their assets in the US, particularly when the rest of the world was in shambles after WW2. It's said that the Marshall plan -- that transfer of dollars to Europe -- only partially offset the flight of money from Europe to the US as people wanted to invest in our bonds because we were a safe haven. So I would say that's how we became a reserve currency.

But in the beginning, the amounts were so small relative to the size of our economy that it didn't disrupt anything.

Over time, it did begin to disrupt things, but perhaps the benefits outweighed the costs to the people who mattered. Those working in US capital markets benefit from this system, since they get a cut of the transactions. And there is still a contingent of die hard market liberals who insist that we must maintain open capital markets, even as the rest of the world takes advantage of this.

Then businesses benefit, in the short term, from outsourcing. Consumers benefit, to some degree, from cheaper imports. The lower interest rates cause asset prices to be higher, so houses are more expensive as are stocks. This benefits the generation that bought the assets when they were cheaper.

So it's not the case that the entire nation is a loser. There are constituencies that benefit from this system and they have power. However the costs are mounting, and the benefits are fading. It's great to have a huge increase in house prices, but that's a one time hit -- a transfer to one or two generations. For the generations that come after, housing is just more expensive. It's great to have boosted stock prices from outsourcing, but now US firms are discovering that they have foreign competitors who are climbing the value the chain.

And of course the social costs for working class Americans are devastating, leading to political instability. I think we are well past the point where the benefits outweigh the costs.

By the way, I am not predicting that we adopt capital controls -- such a thing would be unheard of for us, since we are so indoctrinated in believing that free flow of capital is a type of virtue. However I am a believer in the principle that unsustainable things at some point must end. We cannot continue to bear this burden indefinitely.

Re: The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talk about not responsive. All you did here is restate your previous point.

All you did was state that their previous actions aren't proof of the future, when we are talking about them having sold .org already. Their abdicating stewardship to a group that doesn't have a duty to steward is evidence enough and saying "well they used to" is off topic and not interesting. No need for new arguments when you have none.

Previous to selling it.

Re: The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

#178
post #8

> Take a page from the Donuts book: create multiple price tiers for popular domains, up to 100x the base rate. > Raise rates for long-time owners of common words. They weren’t using that premium space anyway. This is forbidden by the .org registry agreement, 2.10(c): https://www.icann.org/sites/default/files/tlds/org/org-agmt-...

And amazingly won't matter under the new owners who get to write their own rules. That's why everyone is upset. There was a vote that allowed .org to set whatever prices they wanted right before the sale.

His link was to the updated agreement. The sale doesn't allow the owner to write their own rules.

Re: The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

#179
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10 years is a long time, maybe until than its bought back to non-profit, you never know. Also it allows you the luxury of starting worrying about your migration later. If you could invest that money now with more than 4-5 times US interest rates (which is the price increase I would expect), then I would consider this a bad deal.

If it's reverted back to non-profit then prepaying is still a bad proposition because then you're paying today the same amount you would be able to pay years from now -- and paying it to the for-profit entity now instead of the non-profit entity later. And I don't see any reason to expect the annual probability that it's transitioned back to a non-profit to be a lot different in the future than it is right now, which…

Isn't the price like $12 a year? So prepaying 10 years would be $120? That's not an insignificant amount, but it's not like you're going to make a life-changing profit by investing it either.

Locking down [your-name].org for 10 years carries its own value proposition beyond the mere calculation of price today vs in the future.

Re: The .Org Fire Sale: How it sold for less than half its valuation

#180

Wait, if you can no longer trust ICANN, does not that mean you cannot trust the whole internet (domain name system) anymore?

I would assume that ICANN itself may give up its non-profit status in time. That doesn't make them untrustworthy in general -- they will only exist so long as the system they administer is reasonably useful -- just trustworthy for fewer things (don't expect them to implement any sanity check on prices, for instance)
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