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Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

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Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#71

Post by _pra »

MichaelApproved wrote: post #64

It seems that a large part of the problem (aside from flawed algorithm) is that they allow people to pick the tickets they want to purchase. If they required people to buy the tickets in order they're dispensed from the roll it would bring the abuse down dramatically. Even if you were able to crack the code you'd have to wait for others to buy the losers before a winning ticket would show up. The flaw in this would b…

Actually, the article mentioned that most of the stores would be okay with refunding unused tickets.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#73

Post by qq66 »

sethg wrote: post #6
notyourwork wrote: post #4

Summary: If you are smart enough to crack the scratch off lottery you already make enough income that cracking the scratch off lottery is not justifiable.

...but you can teach the technique to someone who is not so smart. Or you can use the technique to launder money.

I don't think that this guy has immediate money laundering needs.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#74

Post by rtghnyhjm »

maeon3 wrote: post #45

The lottery system can now confidently continue to extracting money out of idiots who don't know better. Somehow this whole story leaves me feeling that nothing good has happened. The whole story just feels like a good Samaritan helping a schoolyard bully steal change out of the back pockets of unwitting classmates. A happy ending would be the lottery system managers getting thrown out after suffering unexpected sust…

Nope - remember it's only idiots that play the lottery.

This is like helping the nerds carry on taking money from the bullies once they grow up and get dead end jobs

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#75

Post by patio11 »

andyv wrote: post #37
nagrom wrote: post #3

My favourite line in the whole article was about the way he alerted the lottery board: "The package was sent at 10 am. Two hours later, he received a call from Zufelt. Srivastava had correctly predicted 19 out of the 20 tickets. The next day, the tic-tac-toe game was pulled from stores." I know that we're supposed to be fascinated by the statistical work done cracking the code, but my real sympathy is for the head of…

The last thing the lottery people want is a lot of attention to the flaws in their games. Threatening the whistleblower would cause that.

The cynical bastard in me thinks that There Is A Chance To Beat The Lottery is the best headline a lottery PR team could ever hope for. It is like card counting in Vegas: a problem if and only if you can do it well.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#76

Post by patio11 »

eftpotrm wrote: post #34
lancefisher wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a big difference between one $10 million winner and two $10 million winners. Best not to leave that to chance.

But that's a solvable problem. OK, database geek hat on here. It's not too hard to pregenerate a set of every possible ticket combination, just lots of cross joining of numbers tables and a bit of coding of the play rules. Add in the payout rules and you can produce a total set of all possible cards along with the payout for each given card. From this set, we can select exactly the number and balance of paying and no…

I don't think you've done the math yet on how many possible ticket combinations there are. I have more reason than most people to spend time thinking about bingo math. Get out a piece of paper and run some calculations: enumerating the whole solution space is not feasible.

Anyhow, the real solution is easier: checking a bingo card or lottery ticket for any feature you want is, essentially, O(1). Generating a lottery ticket is O(1). Generate billions, sort into piles, choose millions from piles in proper proportions, randomize order, done.

This still won't help you if you print sufficient information on the ticket to reverse engineer whether it won or not without actually purchasing it, of course.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#77

Post by shabda »

BoppreH wrote: post #15
lkozma wrote: post #11

I find it strange that they don't use some true random source in generating the tickets. I'm also surprised the article finds this obvious. "Of course, it would be really nice if the computer could just spit out random digits. But that’s not possible, since the lottery corporation needs to control the number of winning tickets" Surely the lottery could quantify uncertainties and set up a system where the probability…

I think that "arbitrarily small" is not enough, especially if you are running a business for decades. Try convincing your boss that the chance of all tickets be winners (which would bring the business down) is "small enough".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prize_indemnity_insurance

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#78

Post by patio11 »

sethg wrote: post #6
notyourwork wrote: post #4

Summary: If you are smart enough to crack the scratch off lottery you already make enough income that cracking the scratch off lottery is not justifiable.

...but you can teach the technique to someone who is not so smart. Or you can use the technique to launder money.

Or you could write a Beat The Lottery iPhone app. (OCR plus counting... I somehow think they can make it work.) There are a variety of business models available at that point.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#79

Post by SoftwareMaven »

patio11 wrote: post #75
andyv wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The last thing the lottery people want is a lot of attention to the flaws in their games. Threatening the whistleblower would cause that.

The cynical bastard in me thinks that There Is A Chance To Beat The Lottery is the best headline a lottery PR team could ever hope for. It is like card counting in Vegas: a problem if and only if you can do it well .

Except "counting the cards" in the lottery version is trivial compared to doing it for real. Like the article said, he taught it to his eight year old daughter.

Re: Cracking the Scratch Lottery Code

#80

Post by patio11 »

SoftwareMaven wrote: post #79
patio11 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cynical bastard in me thinks that There Is A Chance To Beat The Lottery is the best headline a lottery PR team could ever hope for. It is like card counting in Vegas: a problem if and only if you can do it well .

Except "counting the cards" in the lottery version is trivial compared to doing it for real. Like the article said, he taught it to his eight year old daughter.

Right: that is the perfect target for the math abilities of the average lottery player. Do a controlled loss on one game, receive PR bonanza and watch as millions of lottery winners learn how to "outsmart" the lottery, introduce Game 2 with the same mechanic and cards which are countable in a fashion which is not exploitable, and watch as ticket sales soar.

This would be evil, of course, but if you're running a lottery your entire business is stealing money from poor people.

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