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Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

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Re: Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

#111

Post by maxlamb »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #91
andrewprock wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Endless economic growth is only a convincing argument if you don't understand basic math. Things that appear exponential locally usually turn out to be logistic or cyclic. I would like to say that I'm surprised that an economist doesn't understand math, but I can't.

Questions of endless economic growth are a red herring/off topic. If exponential economic growth is possible now, then it should be invested in now. If yields change in the future, investment should be reassessed.

This line of thinking can lead to catastrophic consequences if the long-term implications are not well understood. Short-term exponential growth can lead to a catastrophic crash down the road if the debt, resources, or social fractures are not sustainable in the long run.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

#112

Post by buboard »

nostromo wrote: post #74
buboard wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if that were true the companies would have gone bankrupt, but even google keeps increasing its year to year profits.

Innovation is different than revenue -- especially when talking about companies with strong network effects and monopoly-sized marketshare.

ah yes they shouldnt exclude themselves . of course it depends on the roles and quality of their hires.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

#113

Post by andrewprock »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #91
andrewprock wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Endless economic growth is only a convincing argument if you don't understand basic math. Things that appear exponential locally usually turn out to be logistic or cyclic. I would like to say that I'm surprised that an economist doesn't understand math, but I can't.

Questions of endless economic growth are a red herring/off topic. If exponential economic growth is possible now, then it should be invested in now. If yields change in the future, investment should be reassessed.

"If exponential economic growth is possible now..."

It's not.

You can arrive at many false conclusions by assuming a false antecedent.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

#114

Post by scarejunba »

mikorym wrote: post #66
pc wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I was most struck by in the conversation is that Zuck is actually doing some of the things Cowen advocates - policy experimentation, taking on long-term projects with uncertain payoffs, etc. at CZI. I'm a big admirer of what Mark is doing with CZI (which is part of why Cowen/I agreed to the interview). Stripe is still a private company, but maybe I'll be able to intervene more directly over time. If I do, havi…

I don't want to sound like I am trolling or something. However, I find it hard to take anything Mark Zuckerberg does seriously. For that matter, I am so biased that I have no interest in these interviews at all (maybe to your detriment). How do you see this? You say that you are an admirer of CZI. In my experience with obnoxious CEO types, they are happy to be philantrophic or "build" things when it suits them, and o…

Mark my words: Zuckerberg will be remembered not for Facebook but for the Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative. Thirty years from now, people will talk about how he gave $100 million to the government to try out education policies and they zeroed it out and how US education needed the CZI to fix it. We'll be talking about how Zuckerberg SF General has premier care because of Mark Zuckerberg's kindness.

Bill Gates's transformation is not unique. It is a general pattern. Does the word Carnegie bring to mind Pinkerton union-busters? Or a brilliant university? Does Washington bring to mind a revolutionary hero or a slave-keeper? History will look kindly on Mark Zuckerberg.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

#115

Post by scarejunba »

pyb wrote: post #38

"What’s interesting and, anyway should be concerning, is that for almost every conceivable applied measure we seem to be getting at best constant returns. But that’s really bad because we see exponentially increasing inputs and constant return outputs." Ironically, in terms of innovation, the yearly output of companies such as Facebook and Stripe has seemed somewhat constant, despite those companies getting many orde…

If I could be a shareholder of the things they're talking about (CA HSR / NY MTA / non-HHMI scientists), I would be better served by switching to Facebook or (if they were public) Stripe.

Facebook, especially, with the Oculus stuff, their tech stuff (React, Thrift, etc.), Instagram. They're damned good. No way around it. Facebook is absolutely on top of things.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

#116

Post by solveit »

andrewprock wrote: post #113
s1artibartfast wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Questions of endless economic growth are a red herring/off topic. If exponential economic growth is possible now, then it should be invested in now. If yields change in the future, investment should be reassessed.

"If exponential economic growth is possible now..." It's not. You can arrive at many false conclusions by assuming a false antecedent.

I'm not sure what you think is happening then. What do you measure economic growth in, Dollars or percentages?

Re: Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

#117

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

jeremyw wrote: post #26
netcan wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They discuss healthcare & higher education in parallel, and I do think the cost explosion in both is worth noting... But the differences are as important as the similarities. Some big healthcare cost increases come from increased consumption. It's not just incentives, bureaucracies and inefficiencies that caused cost increases. Once upon a time we had less medical care to consume, fewer procedures, cancer treatments…

> It's not just incentives, bureaucracies and inefficiencies that caused cost increases. This might be true if there weren't stark counterexamples, e.g. Singapore at 1/4 the cost, with better outcomes. Notably there, government dollars flow through to consumers who choose among competitors by price and quality.

It might be interesting to note the difference in Singapore's age curve compared to western countries. They are certainly not 1/4 the cost after adjusting for age. They might still be less but this meme that price transparency is the sole cause has to stop.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

#118

Post by mjewkes »

Nokinside wrote: post #50

The most interesting part of the talk is what is avoided. Like the positive effect of government policy. The US Anti-trust policy was very effective at times. Temporary National Economic Committee (TNEC) 1938-1941 forced licensing of tens of thousands of patents. When AT&T Bell Labs invented transistor it was forced to allow anyone to use it's knowledge. People went to Bell Labs and they were taught how to manufactur…

In their public-facing work, Cowen and pc talk primarily about the importance and upside of progress and growth [1][2]. As someone who leans left, I find these writings both novel and compelling - some of the most compelling market-oriented thinking I've come across.

At the same time, pc, Cowen, and Zuck are in the thick of the SF "conservative libertarian" milieu. Thiel was a/the first major investor in FB, Stripe, and Cowen's "Emergent Ventures". Cowen's Mercatus center has deep ties (that I don't fully understand) with Koch industries and the federalist society. Etc.

I'm _far_ less impressed with the policies actually advocated for by these groups.

I'd actually be really interested in hearing the three of them discuss opportunities for government policy to have significant positive impact. I'd be surprised if pc wasn't a fan of at least some aspects of the FAA / NTSB [3], and I know Cowen advocates for public increases in basic research / R&D investment [4].

As "libertarian conservative" "public thought leaders", I wonder where else they might agree that government intervention can be net very-positive.

[Edit: sorry about the labels. There are real clusters of thinking and people here that need names, but I'm sure that they'd prefer different labels]

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/07/we-need-...

[2] https://www.amazon.com/Stubborn-Attachments-Prosperous-Respo... + thorough review/interview https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/tyler-cowen-stubborn...

[3] https://twitter.com/patrickc/status/1021995602970923010

[4] https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/02/th...

Re: Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

#119

Post by mjewkes »

mjewkes wrote: post #118
Nokinside wrote: post #50

The most interesting part of the talk is what is avoided. Like the positive effect of government policy. The US Anti-trust policy was very effective at times. Temporary National Economic Committee (TNEC) 1938-1941 forced licensing of tens of thousands of patents. When AT&T Bell Labs invented transistor it was forced to allow anyone to use it's knowledge. People went to Bell Labs and they were taught how to manufactur…

In their public-facing work, Cowen and pc talk primarily about the importance and upside of progress and growth [1][2]. As someone who leans left, I find these writings both novel and compelling - some of the most compelling market-oriented thinking I've come across. At the same time, pc, Cowen, and Zuck are in the thick of the SF "conservative libertarian" milieu. Thiel was a/the first major investor in FB, Stripe,…

Conversely, I'd love to read a Vox editorial that looks for opportunites for government deregulation/step-back.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg Interviews Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen

#120

Post by andrewprock »

solveit wrote: post #116
andrewprock wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"If exponential economic growth is possible now..." It's not. You can arrive at many false conclusions by assuming a false antecedent.

I'm not sure what you think is happening then. What do you measure economic growth in, Dollars or percentages?

Regardless of the units you use, you won't get an exponential curve. You can fit an exponential curve to the data. You can also fit a logistic curve to the date.

Heck, you can even fit a linear curve to the data.

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