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Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

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Re: Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

#141

Post by DarthGhandi »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #134
DarthGhandi wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of my goto's when economists/commentators love to harp on about Japan and it's lost decades. For all this horrible economic data they still years later have the longest lifespans, the top standings in innovation (many paradigms of which have been now copied worldwide) and on the whole a far safer society than virtually every other Western country. Perhaps the widespread belief that economic growth equals wellbein…

There's a lot of great things about Japan, but I think most people on Hacker News would not envy Japanese work culture. It's common for men to work 100+ hour weeks with 20+ hours of commuting (much more common than in the US). Working women have it even worse, because it's customary for them to do all of the house work as well (even moreso than in the US). Combine that with the fact that after working all those hours…

Were it not late I would respond with Japanese land area, natural resources, almost entire dependency on imports, natural disasters, current account deficit and an entire country ravaged after being the losers in the last global war, including the only place on Earth to be ever attacked with nuclear weapons. I'm not of the opinion that many poorer countries would also be capable of fighting for worker pay were it adjusted for what is clearly national potential.

And while not addressing your clearly correct comment, I'd far prefer to be a remote worker in Osaka or Tokyo than virtually all cities in the US despite language/cultural difficulties.

Re: Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

#142

Post by OnlineGladiator »

ardit33 wrote: post #96
OnlineGladiator wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point was that the microchip industry is a critical part for the developing economy. Today the Bay Area (not California) has 1/2 the GDP of all of Russia! I realize there are lots of industries in the Bay Area besides hardware and software engineering, but that's a pretty stark contrast. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Jose%E2%80%93San_Francisco... https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp Obviously there were lot…

You never lived in a communist state, have you? Do you even realize that even basic things were fucked up beyond belief/comprehension to the average american. (perhaps not, to the average foreigner that have lived in failed states). Again, I was comparing data from the 50s and early 60s, where computers were just not that wide use yet and the computer industry was not even a blip on the overall economy. You also can…

> You never lived in a communist state, have you? Do you even realize that even basic things were fucked up beyond belief/comprehension to the average american. (perhaps not, to the average foreigner that have lived in failed states).

I haven't, but why does it matter? I'm not saying communism is better than democracy, nor did I imply it. Things have been way more fucked up in North Korea longer than the Soviet Union survived, so just being fucked up is not enough for a government to fail (not that I'm optimistic about North Korea's future).

> Again, I was comparing data from the 50s and early 60s, where computers were just not that wide use yet and the computer industry was not even a blip on the overall economy.

I think most people on HN are familiar with the story of how computers won WWII, where Von Neumann used them to decipher German and Japanese encrypted communications. Also the Apollo missions were all controlled by circuits. Computers have been massively important (and expensive - the modern equivalent of ~100 billion USD was spent putting a man on the moon, and some of that includes developing IC technology) for a while.

> You also can claim: Today's US entertainment output, equals half of USSR's GDP. Then US won the cold war because it's move industry. Than you can do the same comparison for medical, agriculture, etc... etc.. then you see the trend that due to its failed system, the USSR was behind the US in every field, and tech was just one of them.

Except the Soviets weren't trying to replicate the movie industry because it wasn't particularly useful for them. But they immediately understood the value of computers, and put significant efforts into developing their technologies.

And the Soviets weren't behind in everything. Contrary to popular belief, the Soviets were ahead in the Space Race until Korolev died. If you want an example of petty politics ruining a nation's future - Korolev's death is my all time favorite. That man made Von Braun look ordinary. It's weird to think how history might have turned out differently had the Soviet Union not sent one of the most brilliant men in history to the gulags.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Korolev

Ironically the US did something similarly stupid by refusing to allow Qian Xuesen to stay in the United States, effectively creating the Chinese space program.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qian_Xuesen

Re: Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

#143

Post by account73466 »

latch wrote: post #112
account73466 wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trade war with Japan started in the mid 80ies and finished by the mid 90ies. The quality of life in Japan (as well as their GDP per capita) didn't improve since then. However, the quality of life in Japan was pretty good even before the 80ies.

Well, according to (1) life expectancy is up ~6 years, (2) infant mortality rate is down by ~2.5x, (3) homicides are down and (4) unemployment is down; all in the period of time that you mention. Seems like objective improvements. (1) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?location... (2) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?end=2018... (3) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.…

From wiki:

"With 15.7 percent of people in poverty, Japan was above the average percent of 11 among the OECD member states." "Japan has some of the highest rates of child poverty in the developed world, according to a Unicef report."

Re: Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

#144

Post by throwGuardian »

The be honest, American companies never had a monopoly in any of the parts needed to build a commercially viable phone. Unlike say in the PC world, where the dominant OS/Software stack has an almost impenetrable reliance on x86, phones were mostly ARM based (in an attempt to prevent Intel's chokehold). And communication standards require FRAND patent grants allowing anyone to build for the spec.

That said, even as recently as a decade back, China was routinely written off as a cheap imitation of US/Japan/Korea in the electronics industry, Huawei & friends have proven otherwise. Their flagships are on par with the Apples and Samsungs, and even lead them on velocity of feature releases, especially hardware

Re: Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

#145

Post by krn »

How likely it is that Huawei got access to the technology behind Samsung's Exynos[1] to speed up the development of their own ARM chips? At least that's what happened with Samsung's foldable screen technology[2].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exynos

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-29/south-kor...

Re: Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

#146

Post by simula67 »

mempko wrote: post #58
ardit33 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that electronics/computers by itself do not have much to do with with the fall of soviet union. USSR fell because: 1. its economic model was dysfunctional and a failure 2. Its moderate leaders (aka Gorbachev and his allies), decided to dismantle it, as they realized the model was a failure, and their only other option was to become extremely repressive, roll out tanks and kill people. (north korea is an examp…

When there was a referendum asking the people in all reoublics whether to keep the Soviet Union or dismantle it, the overwhelming majority, 70+ percent, voted to keep it. The leadership dismantled it anyway. When asking why, it usually is useful to ask cui bono.

It was August Coup by Communist hardliners that prevented the renewal of the federation:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_Union_referendum

Re: Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

#147

Post by madiathomas »

m3kw9 wrote: post #62

Should add inferior in the sentence

I have a Huawei P30 Lite which I use for work purposes. Build quality is better than Samsung. I prefer using it over my iPhone. It is nowhere near inferior. Did I mention that it is supposed to be a cheap phone but its performance is impressive?

Re: Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

#148

Post by benbristow »

rootsudo wrote: post #4

I checked out a Huawei store - they're the same asthetic as an apple store with a ton more useful tech then an ipod, macbook and imac. The phones were impressive and very affordable. We're talking $200-300 for 6gb ram devices, 128gb storage, etc. Google, Apple are right to be worried.

Google might be worried but Apple will be just fine. Apple have the (some might say superior) iOS platform which sets them apart.

After being on Android devices for years and recently switching to iOS I'd be reluctant to go back

Re: Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

#149

Post by pm90 »

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #142
ardit33 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You never lived in a communist state, have you? Do you even realize that even basic things were fucked up beyond belief/comprehension to the average american. (perhaps not, to the average foreigner that have lived in failed states). Again, I was comparing data from the 50s and early 60s, where computers were just not that wide use yet and the computer industry was not even a blip on the overall economy. You also can…

> You never lived in a communist state, have you? Do you even realize that even basic things were fucked up beyond belief/comprehension to the average american. (perhaps not, to the average foreigner that have lived in failed states). I haven't, but why does it matter? I'm not saying communism is better than democracy, nor did I imply it. Things have been way more fucked up in North Korea longer than the Soviet Union…

Please stop digging further into the hole you've dug. The theory you posit is that Semiconductors were key to the fall of the Soviet Union, and many helpful people have pointed out fallacies in that argument. Your counter is not a very good one.

> I think most people on HN are familiar with the story of how computers won WWII, where Von Neumann used them to decipher German and Japanese encrypted communications. Also the Apollo missions were all controlled by circuits. Computers have been massively important (and expensive - the modern equivalent of ~100 billion USD was spent putting a man on the moon, and some of that includes developing IC technology) for a while.

Sure, they have been important, but again, they're not the key. As others have pointed out, the USSR was economically behind the US even right at the beginning of the cold war. Technically, the USSR was able to fight the Germans specifically because of the billions of dollars in Material that the US supplied to the USSR. The American view of the Soviet Union has been shaped by the simple fact of MAD with nukes and various made up scares (e.g. the space race), but if you look at economic and sociological data (e.g. life expectancy), the US was ahead of the USSR for the duration of the cold war.

As the GP has pointed out, reasonable people came to the conclusion that the system could not continue to exist without massive repression and tried to change it.

Your other arguments don't seem to make any sense, and are just referencing historical tidbits.

Re: Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips

#150

Post by fluffything »

throwGuardian wrote: post #144

The be honest, American companies never had a monopoly in any of the parts needed to build a commercially viable phone. Unlike say in the PC world, where the dominant OS/Software stack has an almost impenetrable reliance on x86, phones were mostly ARM based (in an attempt to prevent Intel's chokehold). And communication standards require FRAND patent grants allowing anyone to build for the spec. That said, even as re…

> Unlike say in the PC world, where the dominant OS/Software stack has an almost impenetrable reliance on x86

Huawei also makes its own x86 chips, GPUs, and even FPGAs (e.g. TPU-like systems), and while Huawei Cloud still runs other vendors hardware, it's becoming more and more "Huawei-hardware only" each quarter.

I think the US has not realized yet how good it had it, and how much it has screwed things up. The EU, Russia, India, Japan, and China are all super-dependent on Intel, AMD, and NVIDIA's products, and therefore, the US, on many critical sectors. By showing China/Huawei [0] how much this dependence can hurt, the US has forced China to become technologically independent, and if China succeeds, then all other super powers will have a real and viable alternative to US products.

Right now, e.g., the EU is on the "let's ban all Huawei products, China spies on us!" boat, but the wind can change very quickly to "let's ball all US products, the NSA spies on us!" any time - it doesn't matter that the actual truth is that, no matter who you buy from, they are going to spy on you.

I personally think that it's good for another global player to enter the sector. I don't think it will disrupt it in any major way, but it is already affecting prices, e.g., in the cloud sector, where we are finding out how much are customers willing to pay to "avoid" a Chinese cloud, and it isn't that much.

[0] In case you did not know, Huawei _is_ China.

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