Paradoxical Geniuses: “Let us burn the ships” (2017)

> The pervasiveness of these psychological strategies shows that, whether each case was because of a genius decision or an accident of history, they conferred a substantial advantage to their practitioners.

Of course if Cortés burned all his ships then his entire force was wiped out, would news have reached home? And if it did reach home, would the news of crushing defeat and incompetent leadership have been hushed up?

So I'm not sure I consider this 'substantial advantage' proven.

Re: Paradoxical Geniuses: “Let us burn the ships” (2017)

#5

Post by keiferski » Thu, Nov 28, 2019, 3:14 PM UTC

Not mentioned in the article is that Caesar himself was inspired by a previous Roman general, Sulla. Sulla marched on Rome about 30 years before Caesar did, thus showing that it was possible. Caesar's march also gave rise to some expressions still used today: "the die is cast" and "crossing the Rubicon" - both of which mean "going beyond the point of no return."

Sulla is generally seen as having set the precedent for Caesar's march on Rome and dictatorship. Cicero comments that Pompey once said "If Sulla could, why can't I?". Sulla's example proved that it could be done, and therefore inspired others to attempt it; and in this respect, he has been seen as another step in the Republic's fall.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulla#Legacy

Kafka also has a nice related aphorism: "Beyond a certain point there is no return. This point has to be reached."

Re: Paradoxical Geniuses: “Let us burn the ships” (2017)

#6

Post by codeulike » Thu, Nov 28, 2019, 3:15 PM UTC

Or, survivor bias

(literally)

Re: Paradoxical Geniuses: “Let us burn the ships” (2017)

#7

Post by FeepingCreature » Thu, Nov 28, 2019, 3:27 PM UTC

keiferski wrote: post #5

Not mentioned in the article is that Caesar himself was inspired by a previous Roman general, Sulla. Sulla marched on Rome about 30 years before Caesar did, thus showing that it was possible. Caesar's march also gave rise to some expressions still used today: "the die is cast" and "crossing the Rubicon" - both of which mean "going beyond the point of no return." Sulla is generally seen as having set the precedent for…

Or as internet memes put it:

"There was a point where we needed to stop, and we have clearly passed it.

So let's keep going and see what happens."

Re: Paradoxical Geniuses: “Let us burn the ships” (2017)

#8

Post by FeepingCreature » Thu, Nov 28, 2019, 3:28 PM UTC

Of course, it's not like either logic or economics are new to the notion of precommitment[1] ...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precommitment

Re: Paradoxical Geniuses: “Let us burn the ships” (2017)

#9

Post by Forge36 » Thu, Nov 28, 2019, 3:51 PM UTC

codeulike wrote: post #6

Or, survivor bias (literally)

You can have highly motivated people get themselves killed. Just because burning the ships produced motivation doesn't mean you'll have victory

Re: Paradoxical Geniuses: “Let us burn the ships” (2017)

#10

Post by microtherion » Thu, Nov 28, 2019, 4:10 PM UTC

codeulike wrote: post #6

Or, survivor bias (literally)

This. Specifically, the mention of Caesar reminded me of the beginning of the Gallic wars, when the Helvetii tried something similar: http://classics.mit.edu/Caesar/gallic.1.1.html

> When they thought that they were at length prepared for this undertaking, they set fire to all their towns, in number about twelve - to their villages about four hundred - and to the private dwellings that remained; they burn up all the corn, except what they intend to carry with them; that after destroying the hope of a return home, they might be the more ready for undergoing all dangers.

Spoiler: It did not work out so great for them.