Nine climate tipping points now 'active,' warn scientists

The sociological impact will be immense and likely bankrupt most of the world. We're going to have to move people out of low-lying areas in a pretty short amount of time. There will be billions of refugees but the inland areas don't have the infrastructure or water sources to absorb that many people. There will be food shortages as farmable land becomes inundated or dries up. Wars will happen as desperate people / nations fight over limited resources.

Every coastal city is under threat, and east Asia (where half the world's population lives) is especially vulnerable. I have a feeling things are going to get really, really bad in about 20 years because there's no realistic plan to do anything about it.

It's difficult to appreciate or convey the timescales involved here.

Human activities are pushing atmospheric CO2 concentrations to levels not seen for millions of years.

We've accomplished that in a scant 200 years of fossil fuel use, though with consumption doubling about every 30-40 years, half of the total has occurred since the 1970s.

Atmospheric and oceanic CO2 levels will remain elevated for many thousands of years.

The first awareness of a possible problem seems to have been in the 1850s (yes, the 19th century), and by the early 20th century, the US Naval Research Laboratory was warning of possibly impacts on civilisation. Comprehensive and consistent measurements didn't begin until the 1950s (Charles Keeling and his eponymous curve), and political efforts to address the challenge began in the 1960s. They've been less successful than early activists forecast.

The impacts of climate change not only develop slowly and over time, but through emergent and second-order effects, the full impacts aren't directly forseable. We know that temperatures on average will rise, as will sea levels. Local climactic effects may be above or below those averages. Direct changes include not only temperature but chemistry, and induced effects on ecosystems and human activities, including agriculture and disease. We're seeing long-term trends already in terms of temperatures, sea level rise, shifting climactic zones, changes to forest health, and more. Those are just the harbinger of what will all but certainly be vastly greater consequences playing out over coming decades and centuries.

If it helps: you're in the middle of a train wreck, as a bridge collapses, and the cars hurtle into a fuel storage dump, but are witnessing all of this in super slow motion. What looks like nothing happening is in fact things happening, and most especially approaching critical points at which either it's not possible to roll back to the previous state, much as a block tipped too far doesn't fall back, but continues over, or where behaviour changes dramatically, as the difference between tapping a windowpane and driving your fist through it. Nonlinear responses mean you cannot predict future states based on a steady extrapolation from past experience.

You are in the middle of the emergency -- the emergent situation. The brink lasts a long time, at human scales. On geological ones, this is the blink of an eye, or less.

No. The list has nine tipping points that the authors are afraid we will pass in the future. From the article:

> Nine active tipping points:

> [...]

> The rainforests, permafrost and boreal forests are examples of biosphere tipping points that if crossed result in the release of additional greenhouse gases amplifying warming.

The earth has also been molten rock at one point too, the issue is can humans survive in that environment, not just the fact the earth is warmer.

What bias?

> Michael Shellenberger is a Time Magazine “Hero of the Environment” and Green Book Award Winner. He is also a frequent contributor to The New York Times, Washington Post

Additionally, the author cites and links to specific facts in IPCC and UN reports regarding population displacement, sea levels, crop yields, and economic impact.