What are the error bars on those numbers?
Cut global emissions by 7.6% per year for next decade to meet 1.5°C Paris target
71–80 of 205 posts
Re: Cut global emissions by 7.6% per year for next decade to meet 1.5°C Paris target
#72Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here is what you get some days with solar and wind: https://i.imgur.com/m2snJgg.png . Germany using a lot of standard gas and coal generators.
That doesn't really answer the point, which was that new solar and wind tend to be cheaper than new nuclear as of 2019.
The thing is, storage is unsolved. Battery isn't going to cut it. Pumped hydro isn't realistic for much, and we're using intermittent hydro about as well as we can. Thermal solar is unproven economically, but getting closer. Power->gas->power is marginal.
A little bit of nuclear in the mix, plus storing biogas, and aggressively pursuing thermal solar is very important, IMO. It just isn't possible to overprovision wind enough to meet 99th percentile supply/demand mismatch, but having a few percent of nuclear base load really helps.
If we want people to stop burning natural gas and heating oil for their homes, and more to move to electric cars, we'll need a ton more base load, too.
Yes, nuclear can't compete with natural gas base load, but we want to stop burning so much natural gas, so...
Re: Cut global emissions by 7.6% per year for next decade to meet 1.5°C Paris target
#73I think it should be somewhat obvious that it will be impossible for us to avoid the absolute worst of global warming. Humans simply don't have the capability to act in the coordinated, political way that is necessary. Somehow holding out hope that we'll all come to our senses and things will change is like holding out hope that we'll never have any wars again. It is just not compatible with human nature. I'd love it…
Pull your head out your ass.
You're the one sitting here on the internet claiming defeat.
How many people have you told to cut back on consumption and fuel use this month?
Yea. That's what I thought.
Don't act like it's impossible to change behavior it's not.
Smoking, drunk driving, domestic violence, racism, homophobia, and a bunch of other social issues have all been largely tackled the last few decades.
In WW2 we repurposed car factories to make tanks in a matter of weeks.
Please, don't act like we're a bunch of invilids incapable of change.
Speak for yourself.
Re: Cut global emissions by 7.6% per year for next decade to meet 1.5°C Paris target
#74To all, because governments have mostly failed us on quick action I created a climate pledge. It is open to feedback but I think starting with individual commitments and sustainable lifestyles will help us move society forward as a whole.
Governments are not moving quickly enough on climate change with small incremental changes over time. However, people and organizations who champion these efforts can pressure governments to drive faster change.
Climate Pledge
To protect humanity now and for the future of our posterity I am committing to the following.
- I pledge to limit eating red meat. I will restrict intake of cows and lambs etc.
- If I choose to have children, I will have 2 or less.
- I will try to use cycling or mass transit options whenever possible and to participate in efforts to expand transit.
- I will restrict flying to only when necessary and try to limit flying to only when no other choice is available. If I do fly I will try to offset all emissions.
- I will try my utmost to conserve energy and minimize use of heating and cooling appliances.
- I will try my best to limit energy use to renewable sources when I have the choice. When I cannot choose I will fight for the ability to have this choice.
- I will try to help those close to me understand these choices and the need for those able, to also join the pledge.
- I will only consume what I need. I will not perpetuate extravagance and will only support companies who champion sustainable efforts.
- I will do my best to strive for and support sustainable and minimalist technology.
- I will stay involved in the public discourse on environmental issues and stay engaged on efforts to mitigate climate change.
Re: Cut global emissions by 7.6% per year for next decade to meet 1.5°C Paris target
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
So how should an investor prepare today to the inevitable consequences of climate change?
Buying waterfront property in the great lakes region of the U.S. seems like a good bet.
Lake Erie set a record high water level this year, so timing your purchase might be a little tricky.
Re: Cut global emissions by 7.6% per year for next decade to meet 1.5°C Paris target
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you break ground today on a nuclear generator, you will not see your first kwh generated for at least a decade, and that kwh will not be cost competitive with anything else on the spot market. At the same time, you could replace all nuclear in the US currently operating in around three years (even compensating for capacity factor), solely from PV manufacturing capacity in the US. It is plainly obvious why nuclear…
> If you break ground today on a nuclear generator, you will not see your first kwh generated for at least a decade. If Climate Change is so important, declare a total war against it like during WW2 against the Axis. With most production geared toward nuclear energy, you should have generator up and running a lot faster.
Cant you do the same thing in regards to renewables?
Re: Cut global emissions by 7.6% per year for next decade to meet 1.5°C Paris target
#77I think it should be somewhat obvious that it will be impossible for us to avoid the absolute worst of global warming. Humans simply don't have the capability to act in the coordinated, political way that is necessary. Somehow holding out hope that we'll all come to our senses and things will change is like holding out hope that we'll never have any wars again. It is just not compatible with human nature. I'd love it…
I have been feeling more and more this way. If the resource constriction and human displacement predicted by many analyses occurs, the state responses will likely be predictably horrifying. Given the response of the U.S. Europe and Australia to the current refugee crises it seems something terrible on a far greater scale is nearly unavoidable.
Like you, I would love to be wrong about this but I have not seen any convincing argument against it.
Re: Cut global emissions by 7.6% per year for next decade to meet 1.5°C Paris target
#78I think it should be somewhat obvious that it will be impossible for us to avoid the absolute worst of global warming. Humans simply don't have the capability to act in the coordinated, political way that is necessary. Somehow holding out hope that we'll all come to our senses and things will change is like holding out hope that we'll never have any wars again. It is just not compatible with human nature. I'd love it…
So how should an investor prepare today to the inevitable consequences of climate change?
Spend your money on entertainment while you still have it.
Re: Cut global emissions by 7.6% per year for next decade to meet 1.5°C Paris target
#79I think it should be somewhat obvious that it will be impossible for us to avoid the absolute worst of global warming. Humans simply don't have the capability to act in the coordinated, political way that is necessary. Somehow holding out hope that we'll all come to our senses and things will change is like holding out hope that we'll never have any wars again. It is just not compatible with human nature. I'd love it…
We can and act that way... Unfortunately, for most people on earth their CO2 consumption will have to go up significantly for them to have an improved quality of life.
The large swath of population that doesn't believe in global warming is far less important than the large swath that is anti-nuclear. China, India, etc will need substantial energy to improve their quality of life and their populations are so large relatively to that of the West that marginal improvements in the Wests consumption will have little effect.
Re: Cut global emissions by 7.6% per year for next decade to meet 1.5°C Paris target
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here is what you get some days with solar and wind: https://i.imgur.com/m2snJgg.png . Germany using a lot of standard gas and coal generators.
That doesn't really answer the point, which was that new solar and wind tend to be cheaper than new nuclear as of 2019.
The point is, we don't really see a path to enough wind + appropriate storage in order to have a carbon neutral grid... but France performed the transition to a nearly-carbon neutral grid decades ago with nuclear, and the fully-amortized cost of French electricity isn't that bad.