61–70 of 80 posts
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Then why not short sell stocks and become rich?
Stocks aren’t necessarily an indicator of economic strength. The S&P 500 is in an earnings recession right now, but continues trading at all-time highs. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.
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The usual argument regarding the stock market crash is that even if it's coming, it's hard to predict when, and it's great investment long term even if it crashes temporarily. At this point I think it just depends on what the central banks want, as they took control over stock market prices with the low interest rates.
> it's great investment long term even if it crashes temporarily. That's not really true outside the US. And in fact it's not even true for the smaller cap stocks in the US. The Japanese stock market being the most cited foreign example of the opposite. Pretty much everywhere outside the US the stock market is very vulnerable. Odds are this will come to the US sooner or later. They can QE forever to feed the demand,…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Stocks aren’t necessarily an indicator of economic strength. The S&P 500 is in an earnings recession right now, but continues trading at all-time highs. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.
This is not true. Sp500 earning are near ATH. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings
MarketWatch - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-is-in-its-first...
CNBC - https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/24/ana...
During the height of the bitcoin bubble I had my gym coach leave job and become "crypto investor" ... Katy Perry changed her nails to each look like one of the popular coins. And yes I did have an uber driver talk to me about crypto. The mainstream media were shilling Ripple at its highest price ever. Today, all the same people talk about coming recession. I was lucky to have my first job in finance during the credit…
When the street gets out, it's time to get in.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The usual argument regarding the stock market crash is that even if it's coming, it's hard to predict when, and it's great investment long term even if it crashes temporarily. At this point I think it just depends on what the central banks want, as they took control over stock market prices with the low interest rates.
> it's great investment long term even if it crashes temporarily. That's not really true outside the US. And in fact it's not even true for the smaller cap stocks in the US. The Japanese stock market being the most cited foreign example of the opposite. Pretty much everywhere outside the US the stock market is very vulnerable. Odds are this will come to the US sooner or later. They can QE forever to feed the demand,…
Most modern recessions are caused by investor fear and panic. In March 2020, if Elizabeth Warren gets the democratic nomination, you can expect a medium to deep recession caused by her high tax plan and business-hostile policies. You can gauge this by the high number of put option contracts with March expiration being purchased, compared to all other months.
Link?
During the height of the bitcoin bubble I had my gym coach leave job and become "crypto investor" ... Katy Perry changed her nails to each look like one of the popular coins. And yes I did have an uber driver talk to me about crypto. The mainstream media were shilling Ripple at its highest price ever. Today, all the same people talk about coming recession. I was lucky to have my first job in finance during the credit…
I agree with what You said. However, You can still have downward spiral even in case "everyone is talking/preparing for coming crisis". Imagine this: - China going finally bust - honkong peg to dolar broken (financial companies there going bust) - australia mining slowdown and property market bust - australia banking woes Even though there are money on the sidelines, you can have crisis and even more money on the sid…
The bubble will burst soon...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> it's great investment long term even if it crashes temporarily. That's not really true outside the US. And in fact it's not even true for the smaller cap stocks in the US. The Japanese stock market being the most cited foreign example of the opposite. Pretty much everywhere outside the US the stock market is very vulnerable. Odds are this will come to the US sooner or later. They can QE forever to feed the demand,…
Jack Bogle goes as far as saying you don't need to own international stocks. If I recall he says that the US has a innovative and growth mindset, and is stable... So we would always be growing in the long term. https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20170429/FREE/1704299...
Be clear: you are betting if you take Bogle's advice. You are going all-in. If you know what you are doing, great...but that is probably not the case.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with what You said. However, You can still have downward spiral even in case "everyone is talking/preparing for coming crisis". Imagine this: - China going finally bust - honkong peg to dolar broken (financial companies there going bust) - australia mining slowdown and property market bust - australia banking woes Even though there are money on the sidelines, you can have crisis and even more money on the sid…
in your pipe dream.
I don't think any sane person doubts that China is going to have a debt crisis btw (it started a while ago), the question is whether they can do what they did in 1997.
But yeah: already started.