Predicting Next Recession • Hacker News Board

Re: Predicting Next Recession

#11

Post by aguyfromnb » Sat, Nov 23, 2019, 3:52 PM UTC

viburnum wrote: post #2

Most recessions are easy to predict because they’re intentionally triggered by central banks with the aim of controlling inflation by putting a lot of people out of work.

>intentionally triggered by central banks with the aim of controlling inflation by putting a lot of people out of work

This is the top comment, while someone calling it a conspiracy theory is down-voted. That is sad.

The Fed was founded in 1913. The US had recessions in 1785, 1789, 1796, 1802, 1807, 1812, 1815, 1822, 1825, 1828, 1833, 1836, 1839, 1845, 1847, 1853, 1857, 1860, 1865, 1869, 1873, 1882, 1887, 1890, 1893, 1902, 1907, 1910.

Do you notice how frequent recessions were, pre-Fed? The average duration was also much longer. Blaming recessions on the Fed (who are trying to manipulate the business cycle) doesn't jibe with the data.

Re: Predicting Next Recession

#12

Post by mcguire » Sat, Nov 23, 2019, 3:52 PM UTC

rapsey wrote: post #7

H8crilA wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are actually somewhat rare. US in the late 70s with Paul Volker and the famous British Pound short by Soros which interrupted the government chocking off the economy with high interest rates, broke the pound and saved the UK from a recession. Do you have more prominent examples? It's usually policy error in the other direction - keeping easy money for too long. I.e. you don't handle a catastrophe by fixing the…

The Japanese central bank single handedly caused the lost decade.

Single handedly?

Re: Predicting Next Recession

#13

Post by davidw » Sat, Nov 23, 2019, 3:57 PM UTC

aguyfromnb wrote: post #11

viburnum wrote: post #2

Most recessions are easy to predict because they’re intentionally triggered by central banks with the aim of controlling inflation by putting a lot of people out of work.

> intentionally triggered by central banks with the aim of controlling inflation by putting a lot of people out of work This is the top comment, while someone calling it a conspiracy theory is down-voted. That is sad. The Fed was founded in 1913. The US had recessions in 1785, 1789, 1796, 1802, 1807, 1812, 1815, 1822, 1825, 1828, 1833, 1836, 1839, 1845, 1847, 1853, 1857, 1860, 1865, 1869, 1873, 1882, 1887, 1890, 1893…

> This is the top comment, while someone calling it a conspiracy theory is down-voted. That is sad.

Perhaps it's my perception, but I've noticed this more lately.

I mean, there's always been a perception, for as long as I've been on this site that "things used to be better", so take that with a grain of salt, but objectively, if we don't have the "antibodies" in this community to reject obvious conspiracy theories like this... we're in a bad spot.

Re: Predicting Next Recession

#14

Post by strandedfoe » Sat, Nov 23, 2019, 3:58 PM UTC

huffmsa wrote: post #9

What's in the author's portfolio will really tell you what they think about the next proximity of the next recession.

It’s amazing the amount of effort people are willing to convince themselves and others that the US Economy is failing when it’s the strongest in the world. When it affects themselves and their fellow Americans. Just because they hate the sitting president. So much that they are willing to delude themselves about the economy, fake impeachment, Evilness of china, Democrats with their 3 year prosecution that amounts to nothing, etc

Re: Predicting Next Recession

#15

Post by surfmike » Sat, Nov 23, 2019, 4:03 PM UTC

H8crilA wrote: post #3

viburnum wrote: post #2

Most recessions are easy to predict because they’re intentionally triggered by central banks with the aim of controlling inflation by putting a lot of people out of work.

Those are actually somewhat rare. US in the late 70s with Paul Volker and the famous British Pound short by Soros which interrupted the government chocking off the economy with high interest rates, broke the pound and saved the UK from a recession. Do you have more prominent examples? It's usually policy error in the other direction - keeping easy money for too long. I.e. you don't handle a catastrophe by fixing the…

The policy error in 2008 was not enough easy money early enough. https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato...

Re: Predicting Next Recession

#16

Post by Craighead » Sat, Nov 23, 2019, 4:06 PM UTC

strandedfoe wrote: post #14

huffmsa wrote: post #9

What's in the author's portfolio will really tell you what they think about the next proximity of the next recession.

It’s amazing the amount of effort people are willing to convince themselves and others that the US Economy is failing when it’s the strongest in the world. When it affects themselves and their fellow Americans. Just because they hate the sitting president. So much that they are willing to delude themselves about the economy, fake impeachment, Evilness of china, Democrats with their 3 year prosecution that amounts to…

It's amazing the amount of people who forget the past, and are unable to read things like the Mueller report, or understand what quid pro quo means.

Re: Predicting Next Recession

#17

Post by Gusen » Sat, Nov 23, 2019, 4:10 PM UTC

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Re: Predicting Next Recession

#18

Post by NPMaxwell » Sat, Nov 23, 2019, 4:11 PM UTC

The 1929 crash and the 2008 crash that started the great recession were both caused by uncovering the bezzle. The "bezzle" is what Galbraith called fake monetary supply: money that doesn't exist because it has already been embezzled (but still shows up on accounting statements). Trump signaled that there would be very lax regulation, meaning "your bezzle is safe from us." The next crash will appear when major corporations believe that it is in their interest to lay off CEO's and take their big baths. That will be sometime when they are convinced that the next Executive Branch administration will be checking accounting statements.

Re: Predicting Next Recession

#19

Post by NPMaxwell » Sat, Nov 23, 2019, 4:15 PM UTC

NPMaxwell wrote: post #18

The 1929 crash and the 2008 crash that started the great recession were both caused by uncovering the bezzle. The "bezzle" is what Galbraith called fake monetary supply: money that doesn't exist because it has already been embezzled (but still shows up on accounting statements). Trump signaled that there would be very lax regulation, meaning "your bezzle is safe from us." The next crash will appear when major corpora…

https://moneyfyi.wordpress.com/2013/11/15/5358/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_bath

Re: Predicting Next Recession

#20

Post by perspective1 » Sat, Nov 23, 2019, 4:15 PM UTC

There's so much effort put into timing the next recession. It's not just that they can't even do that with meaningful certainty-- it's that they also can't tell you how significant the recession will be. I mean, with full employment right now, of course a recession is on the horizon (who knows when). But, going from full employment to 1% less doesn't mean the economy or its people is even worse off than they were 2 years ago. Same thing with virtually any thing else that plugs into GDP.