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The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

paulgraham.com

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Re: The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

#71
post #3

What's the topic that just doesn't leave you alone? For me it's an interest in animal consciousness and communication, even though I am a physicist by training.

I can't stop thinking about applied fun theory to card game mechanics. I'm building a card game where you never leave the flow state. (I know there's been a lot of cash grab card games recently. I just genuinely enjoy card games.)

Specifically this question -

Why is soccer more widely played than checkers?

Physical Mastery - repetitive exploration of real world ball physics encourages a sense of mastery. Checkers doesn't have this. I've built a physics sim into the card game to replicate this sense of building mastery through exploring the physics system to win.

Mental Mastery - Both soccer players and checker players make choices that feel fun and meaningful. When trying to dribble around an opponent, they have multiple options they must chose (right or left, fakeout). The player must have a model of what their opponent might do and react based on that. Updating their model is a sense of mental mastery that can be rewarding and contribute to flow.

Real Time - Soccer doesn't have turns. In checkers, waiting for the opponent can break the flow state if you already know your move. The demo allows players to play cards in real time. The catch is - when you run out of cards in hand you loose.

Accessibility - People can just pick up a ball shaped object and ball. I built a demo in WebGL so people can just hop in.

Simplicity of Rules and Depth of Choices - Instead of having a convoluted health system, the amount of cards in your hand are your health. This makes picking up the game easy, there's just one rule to keep in mind. This allows for a variety of fun choices because each card you play lowers your health. This creates a fun risk reward system with no additional rules.

The other idea is to use the existing physics system that players are already familiar with. That way there's no tutorial - players already know how cards handle and drop in real life.

Re: The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

#72
Competitive gaming is a particularly good example of this. I followed most of the rise of Dota from trashy Warcraft 3 mod to Valve's multi-million-dollar-prize-pool juggernaut.

The first few crops of Dota millionaires all had the same backstory: "I played this game 14 hours a day. If there were tournaments at all they didn't really pay anything. My parents said I was wasting my life. I never had a girlfriend. Everyone thought I was a loser, but I just wanted to play and win... and now I know it was all worth it."

And the thing that I couldn't help thinking is: was it? I'm not sure that any rational person would make that decision. Even if you could somehow know that competitive gaming would get big enough, and that your particular game would be popular enough, and that you could become good enough to win – that's just table stakes. You then have to actually play the game obsessively for a decade. There are, frankly, far more comfortable ways to earn a million dollars in exchange for 20,000 to 50,000 hours of your life.

It's kind of hard to take a coherent message away from that. Should you become a competitive gamer for the millions? Certainly not then, and definitely not now. Should you hope that your fringe interest (bus tickets, say) becomes a million-dollar enterprise? No, that's probably even less likely.

Perhaps the message is just that millions are delivered to those with a combination of luck and the freedom to pursue rationally unjustifiable interests. A combination that is increasingly rare in an economic system designed to squeeze out the inefficient. Lest we forget the Bell monopoly; we may never see such inefficiency again.

Re: The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 'problem' with modern science is that a large finite amount of stuff has been discovered, and new discoveries are most often built on that stuff. I splash around in the backwaters of machine learning, however I have to pick my targets carefully and maintain a very tight focus - the defined knowledge base has already grown to more than anyone can ingest in detail. Given the amount of knowledge that has to be absor…

The problem with modern science is that there is no room for the unusual. Faraday had no formal training, but his natural intuition, interest, and tenacity made him standout. Newton was a brilliant, paranoid asshole. Instead funding goes to credentialed career scientists whose greatest ability is self-promotion, fund raising, and stringing-along the public. As an example: The next big particle accelerator sucks up bi…

From my experiences in the life sciences going through the academic credentialing process (PhD to postdoc), there was room for the unusual but the way it worked was a little convoluted. Basically the grant funding agencies give you money for a project that they can understand and follow your logic on why it will succeed. Then when they fund you, you cut back on the resources required to get to that success and spend the savings on new ideas. The fun part about the "new idea" spending is you can look at most anything that your instrumentation can look for. The idea being all the tools in your lab, your departments lab, even collaborating institutions are available to play around with and probe. You can even build new instrumentation to look at new things with that money. This is how modern life science pushes ahead.

Re: The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

#75
If you are too successful at something then you are probably too local in your steps/bets - you should make greater steps/bets by risking more in order to increase your overall progress. It is an optimal rule which was mathematically derived for convex functions, see the one-fifth rule at http://ls11-www.cs.tu-dortmund.de/people/beyer/EA-glossary/n.... The ratio itself is problem-dependent but the core idea is beautiful.

Re: The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

#76
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Using the example from the essay, a big part of obsession with bus tickets is probably explained by being able to show off rare bus tickets to fellow collectors. Eh, I had a large collection. I still have a collection of a few hundred tickets (not worth much, a few hundred pounds). I started the collection in about 1997. I stopped in about 2003. I've never shown other collectors my tickets, and I've only put about…

I love it that on HN my point can be disproved by an actual bus ticket collector! Still I think my larger point stands - Girardian mimetic desire ( http://www.imitatio.org/brief-intro ) is a powerful force that certainly can get you interested in something.

Oh! I don't want to say I'm disproving your point. I'm only providing a small counter example. Maybe most other people are driven by sharing their collection? Museums have been a big deal for a while and some of that is around collecting the obscure items in order to display them

Re: The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

#77
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

800 karma in 73 days. I wonder what the highest karma gain in two months was, in HN’s history. (From comments only, and with the top comment removed from consideration to avoid one-offs.) I guess I’m a bus ticket collector of HN facts.

tptacek has 323873 since november 2007 [0] or an average of 2,249 per month so probably quite a bit higher. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=tptacek

I probably should have specified “besides tptacek.” He’s a fascinating outlier. He once claimed he was worried some Russians were going to harm him due to his HN comments. I still wonder if he was just saying that to sound cool, but truth is often strange.

That average does put things into perspective though.

Re: The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

#78
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

tptacek has 323873 since november 2007 [0] or an average of 2,249 per month so probably quite a bit higher. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=tptacek

I probably should have specified “besides tptacek.” He’s a fascinating outlier. He once claimed he was worried some Russians were going to harm him due to his HN comments. I still wonder if he was just saying that to sound cool, but truth is often strange. That average does put things into perspective though.

he sounds paranoid but hate sells well

Re: The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

#79
I think your social life or lack of has a large influence on the things you become obsessed about. A lot of friends and people in general are not going to be supportive of your eccentric interests, in the worst case they might judge you poorly for it but in the best case they don’t mind but don’t find it interesting either. It might be great for your startup ambitions to have a lot of eccentric obsessions, but it’s also socially isolating. I think there’s a reason why a lot of geniuses were also social outcasts.

Re: The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius

#80
post #14

Can you make yourself intentionally interested in a topic?

I was thinking the same thing. Being obsessively interested sounds neat when you watch others spend their entire lives, eg. collecting stamps and coins. According to this wisdom, when they find the rare gem that makes them a fortune they're geniuses. However, who can will themselves into becoming obsessive with something. Wouldn't it be kind of self-defeating if it is to take something out of it (ie. opposite of karm…

uh, most of your list is about what is popular now and wouldn't have been popular in say the 70s or 80s

Only 2 points seem timeless:

- study what you're passionate about

- cultivate interest further, by iterating on building stuff, meeting peers who share similar interests, followup on your ideas and dreams

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