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Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

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Re: Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

#101

Deep fakes are yet another prime example of how the writing is on the wall (i.e. it's clear that this technology can/will be used for nefarious purposes - esp. by our enemies) and yet mitigations - through regulation and enhanced standards - won't be pursued until long after the horses have left the barn. I don't know how/what form this should take, but an older analogy might be how colour photocopier manufacturers i…

As far as technical responses, there are at least four different goals to pursue regarding fakes:

1. Origin tracing. This is the microdot example: it's not meant to catch deepfakes, but link nefarious instances to their source. But the existing technical options here seem to be a mix of privacy-eroding (printers are dumb compared to phones/computers, and you'd have to prevent or ban sharing non-marked media) and ineffective (bulk color copying requires physical access to a device that's hard to make or modify; deepfakes can be constructed on a server in another country, or have their identifiers scrubbed after the fact).

2. Reactive, general verification. This is just an arms race between fakers and observers, like catching art forgers. Existing fakes have tells like a modified 'halo' around faces. Right now we only see manual checks, but major content hosts like Youtube could flag "suspected deepfake" like they do "music copyright strike". (Or hopefully better than that...) But it depends on staying ahead of fakers, and once the tells are too subtle to simply watch for it will only work when hosts or viewers choose to validate content.

3. Proactive, general verification. This corresponds to hard-to-implement, easy-to-verify security features like UV watermarks on money or prescriptions. But those rely on controlled supply, and decades of DRM failures tell us that digital fakes are much easier to make and safer to pass than physical ones. I don't expect this to expand beyond closed groups like news orgs giving out auto-watermarking cameras.

4. Specific authentication: not eradicating fakes but proving certain videos are legitimate. This is the most plausible, interesting category. We can't even prevent manipulative photo edits today, so we're unlikely to prevent manipulative deepfakes, but today we can prove specific aspects of specific images are legitimate. People will still believe fakes and lack proof of some real events, but this prevents a more fundamental transition to a "post-truth" era; we'll still have known-good records of key events.

We've had low-tech authentication since the dawn of photography - think of hostage photos taken with a daily newspaper to prove "this image is newer than this day". As photo editing emerged, steganography developed to catch out altered elements. Cryptographic signing took that further, allowing us to prove that an image is unaltered from a specific keyholder. We even have the reverse of the old newspaper photo; publishing a hash or encrypted file lets us date an image back to a specific time without having to actually release it.

Proving that a file is authentic to the world, not just an owner, is trickier. But we already have some steps: deepfakes take time, so any livestreamed video is not being edited that way after the fact. Authenticating something time-specific like a Presidential speech would only require combining that rapid turnaround with proof that the video wasn't prepared in advance; until on-the-wire editing becomes convincing a newspaper in the background would suffice. Quite likely we'll see more complex arrangements eventually, like trusted hosts that issue random values and demand their use in rapid responses.

None of this is going to stop people from believing fakes, but nothing ever has. What's more significant is whether we maintain the ability to create records which can be verified and trusted.

Re: Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

#102

Deep fakes are yet another prime example of how the writing is on the wall (i.e. it's clear that this technology can/will be used for nefarious purposes - esp. by our enemies) and yet mitigations - through regulation and enhanced standards - won't be pursued until long after the horses have left the barn. I don't know how/what form this should take, but an older analogy might be how colour photocopier manufacturers i…

We’ve had photographic deep fakes for decades now. How does this fundamentally change anything more than Photoshop already did?

"We've had computers for decades now. How does this fundamentally change anything more than the IBM 360 did?" -- investor being asked for funding in 1978 by a couple of hippies in Cupertino

Re: Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

#103

Part of me feels that the widespread proliferation of deep fakes can potentially be positive. Seeing will no longer be believing and society will be forced to look at things with a more critical and skeptical eye or with a higher level of diligence. Value should also shift back to more legitimate sources. The transition will certainly suck though.

Seeing will no longer be believing and society will be forced to look at things with a more critical and skeptical eye or with a higher level of diligence. Value should also shift back to more legitimate sources.

Not to drag the thread in a political direction, but that's what I thought when Trump won the Presidency. Rather than a boost to our cognitive immunity, though, we're only seeing stronger polarization.

The transition will certainly suck though.

Exactly, only there's no sign of an end to the 'transition.' Today, the common person is more empowered than ever before to ignore what they don't want to hear.

Re: Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

#104
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sorts of bad actors or 'enemies' who'd deploy deep fakes for advantage aren't typically discouraged by 'regulations'. On the other hand, there is a reasonable amount of active research on both detecting current faking-techniques, and methods of adding cryptographic attestation from point-of-recording. I don't believe "detection" can win in the end, as widespread detection-technology can generally be used to tune…

Yes, we should not underestimate plain old social solutions. I remember when you used to answer the phone every time because caller id didn't exist. Who answers their phone now? This just mainstreams exceptional validation workflows that exist in finance for establishing identity and preventing phishing and other forms of identity attack. We just won't be able to trust anyone is actually saying anything except after…

I think this is a regional thing.

I'm from a rural community in Canada, and of course we answer the phone.

Just floors me to visit my mother-in-law in Texas; when we visited eight years ago, she'd answer the phone; now she doesn't answer her cell or her home phone unless it makes a distinctive ring. I'd hate to need to get ahold of her using someone else's phone.

Re: Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

#105
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of all the places where you could find "epstein news" you choose to link the New York Post.

I would honestly love to link to a trusted MSM report, but these outlets have been burying Epstein stories[1]. It's awful. 1. https://www.newsweek.com/abc-jeffrey-epstein-story-amy-robac...

I'm not criticizing the New York Post for being too indie. I'm criticizing them for being profoundly untrustworthy.

Re: Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

#106

Deep fakes are yet another prime example of how the writing is on the wall (i.e. it's clear that this technology can/will be used for nefarious purposes - esp. by our enemies) and yet mitigations - through regulation and enhanced standards - won't be pursued until long after the horses have left the barn. I don't know how/what form this should take, but an older analogy might be how colour photocopier manufacturers i…

naive question, won't any deep faked video leave some pretty readily detectable artifacts in the underlying video file?

Re: Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been faking videos for as long as video has existed. Deepfakes is just a scary new word for what people would call "CGI" or "VFX".

> Deepfakes is just a scary new word for what people would call "CGI" or "VFX". "Ryzen 3950x" is just a scary new word for "z80" or "6502". Deepfakes don't provide any fundamentally new capability, but they do reduce the cost and time required to create a convincing fake video by multiple orders of magnitude. That completely changes the threat model, from "our propaganda rival occasionally releases a fake video that…

> Deepfakes don't provide any fundamentally new capability

I'm not sure this is entirely true, although your larger point is quite good.

People have been faking video since the dawn of video, yes. But for several decades, a clear, high-res video of a specific person has been pretty much inviolate. Faking a steady closeup of a president or famous actress would have been unthinkable - no VFX hoax ever convincingly impersonated Nixon. As a result, bad actors had to resort to deceptive editing, low-quality "covert" footage, or very rarely an exceptional look-alike. Even Hollywood had to rely on old footage and rewrites when an actor died.

Today, we're right on the edge of changing that. MIT can revive the President, but not perfectly, and only to the standards of a 70s news video. Lucasfilms can revive Carrie Fisher, but not well enough to fool an alert viewer, and not in a natural/unedited setting. Within a few years, we might hit a level that tricks even the most acute viewer, and is only caught by forensic analysis. We've been there with photographs for years, but it's new ground for video.

Re: Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

#108
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would honestly love to link to a trusted MSM report, but these outlets have been burying Epstein stories[1]. It's awful. 1. https://www.newsweek.com/abc-jeffrey-epstein-story-amy-robac...

I'm not criticizing the New York Post for being too indie. I'm criticizing them for being profoundly untrustworthy.

Can you provide examples?

Re: Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

#109

Part of me feels that the widespread proliferation of deep fakes can potentially be positive. Seeing will no longer be believing and society will be forced to look at things with a more critical and skeptical eye or with a higher level of diligence. Value should also shift back to more legitimate sources. The transition will certainly suck though.

That transition will be very long, if ever be complete.

Re: Deepfakes: MIT brings Nixon's Apollo disaster speech to life

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, we should not underestimate plain old social solutions. I remember when you used to answer the phone every time because caller id didn't exist. Who answers their phone now? This just mainstreams exceptional validation workflows that exist in finance for establishing identity and preventing phishing and other forms of identity attack. We just won't be able to trust anyone is actually saying anything except after…

I think this is a regional thing. I'm from a rural community in Canada, and of course we answer the phone. Just floors me to visit my mother-in-law in Texas; when we visited eight years ago, she'd answer the phone; now she doesn't answer her cell or her home phone unless it makes a distinctive ring. I'd hate to need to get ahold of her using someone else's phone.

Obviously I'm not your mother-in-law, but I also don't answer my phone unless it shows it's someone I know because 95% of calls I get are spam. However, I will check my voicemail. So far every legitimate caller has left one to my knowledge.
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