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This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

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Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#51
post #6

Totally bonkers: economists using science to approach "social science" issues. Social sciences should be ashamed that this is not the norm, we should all be startled and surprised that this is a new thing and evidently people have just been using a system of high-fives and good wishes to solve the world's social problems.

Before we pile on the social sciences, maybe someone familiar with them can tell us why RCTs are so hard to do. There are likely other issues involved that make RCTs very difficult -- I'm guessing some ethical issues at least. I doubt social scientists and economists are just a bunch of idiots or charlatans. Likewise, the recent breakthrough wouldn't be such a breakthrough if it had been easier. I don't have an Econo…

Physics–the only science where reductionism ever really worked–has sort-of ruined it for all the others, where it (mostly) doesn't.

In economics, you are studying vast systems. For the majority of questions, it is impossible to isolate some part of the system and control and measure all the inputs and outcomes. That's probably obvious for macroeconomics: You can't have FED raise or lower interest rates based on a random number generator. And even if you could, you would still need a second United States to act as the control group.

It's mostly also true for microeconomics. Consider the difficulty of studying UBI. The largest such studies gave a basic income to a small African village, for a limited time of maybe two years. But the idea, and its opponents, mostly deal with the life choices people make, requiring essentially life-long guarantees. And even just knowing to be part of such a study, or continuing to live in a society that hasn't changed, is likely or at least plausible to change the outcome to render the study meaningless.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#52

Totally bonkers: economists using science to approach "social science" issues. Social sciences should be ashamed that this is not the norm, we should all be startled and surprised that this is a new thing and evidently people have just been using a system of high-fives and good wishes to solve the world's social problems.

It speaks horribly of Hacker News readers that xyxxy2020's ignorant nonsense has been repeatedly upvoted.

Looks like it's actually downvoted now.

Anyway, I think it's more correct to say "It speaks horribly of Hacker News readers _economics knowledge_." There are some topics here in which the quality of comments is quite poor but it's probably unreasonable to expect a group of people (specifically "good hackers") to be knowledgeable about _everything_. It is what it is and you just have to figure out which topic to avoid here.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#53
post #48

Economics continues to try and reinvent itself. I’m curious how the example of an RCT in deworming schedules for children counts as Economics. This seems like a field in its death throes. Nobels for ‘credibility research’?

Economics has an identity crisis. It is trying to be a science when it is an art/humanity. Rather than embracing it's nature it is trying to be what it is not. It's like Christianity trying to be a science via creation science. It simply does not work.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#54
post #53
post #48

Economics continues to try and reinvent itself. I’m curious how the example of an RCT in deworming schedules for children counts as Economics. This seems like a field in its death throes. Nobels for ‘credibility research’?

Economics has an identity crisis. It is trying to be a science when it is an art/humanity. Rather than embracing it's nature it is trying to be what it is not. It's like Christianity trying to be a science via creation science. It simply does not work.

Thanks for this glib comment, it must be true since you asserted it. Frankly what I find most annoying about this comment is the implicit claim that humans are so complex that we can't possibly study it; that our existing scientific method is inadequate to describe economics.

Unlike any art economics can make predictions, and we can test the validity of such predictions. That our models are insufficient right now doesn't mean we should cast the whole discipline into the toilet.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it's also manipulative. It wasn't created by Alfred Nobel but the Nobel Foundation does refer to it as a Nobel prize: https://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/economic-sciences/

Economics already existed when Nobel died. It's not an oversight that there is no Nobel prize in economics, he didn't consider it a science worth a Nobel prize. That's why his family still tries to get his name off the Riksbank prize.

Do they?

From what I can tell in admittedly fairly brief reading, a single member of the family is trying to remove the name, while the rest of the family simply want it distinguished from the other prizes while not objecting to the use of the name per se.

This statement from Peter Nobel[0], the man actively trying to remove the name, presumably sums up the best arguments he had available against using the name, and makes no mention of other family members trying to deny usage.

[0] https://rwer.wordpress.com/2010/10/22/the-nobel-family-disso...

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#56
post #21

These critics should spend some time speaking to the medical research community. These aren't new questions. It kinda reveals the deep underlying assumptions; "of course we can know the results of these interventions in advance, so we must base our ethics on that"... ok, but if you already know the effects, why are you testing them? You're testing them because you don't know. Unfortunately, there's no royal road to s…

"One day when I was a junior medical student, a very important Boston surgeon visited the school and delivered a great treatise on a large number of patients who had undergone successful operations for vascular reconstruction. At the end of the lecture, a young student at the back of the room timidly asked, “Do you have any controls?” Well, the great surgeon drew himself up to his full height, hit the desk, and said,…

The way this story was structured makes me unsure if it really happened or not.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#57
post #21

These critics should spend some time speaking to the medical research community. These aren't new questions. It kinda reveals the deep underlying assumptions; "of course we can know the results of these interventions in advance, so we must base our ethics on that"... ok, but if you already know the effects, why are you testing them? You're testing them because you don't know. Unfortunately, there's no royal road to s…

"One day when I was a junior medical student, a very important Boston surgeon visited the school and delivered a great treatise on a large number of patients who had undergone successful operations for vascular reconstruction. At the end of the lecture, a young student at the back of the room timidly asked, “Do you have any controls?” Well, the great surgeon drew himself up to his full height, hit the desk, and said,…

Let me guess. The young student was an HN pedant.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#58
post #21

These critics should spend some time speaking to the medical research community. These aren't new questions. It kinda reveals the deep underlying assumptions; "of course we can know the results of these interventions in advance, so we must base our ethics on that"... ok, but if you already know the effects, why are you testing them? You're testing them because you don't know. Unfortunately, there's no royal road to s…

But the thing with the de-worming experiment is they did know it worked. They were studying a procedure known to be beneficial and merely asking "is this beneficial also to our policy goal" and using as a pretext to deny people a known beneficial medical treatment (for 1-2 years as the system was rolled-out).

Which is to say this seems neither analogous to medicine or ethical in the same fashion to controls for medicines of unknown efficacy. Maybe, if somehow they had no choice but their "phased roll-out", they have a justification but otherwise, what were they even considering? Not treating people?

See: https://www.betterevaluation.org/resources/example/Primary_s...

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#59
post #54
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economics has an identity crisis. It is trying to be a science when it is an art/humanity. Rather than embracing it's nature it is trying to be what it is not. It's like Christianity trying to be a science via creation science. It simply does not work.

Thanks for this glib comment, it must be true since you asserted it. Frankly what I find most annoying about this comment is the implicit claim that humans are so complex that we can't possibly study it; that our existing scientific method is inadequate to describe economics. Unlike any art economics can make predictions, and we can test the validity of such predictions. That our models are insufficient right now doe…

> our existing scientific method is inadequate to describe economics.

Agreed.

> we can test the validity of such predictions.

Nope.

> we should cast the whole discipline into the toilet.

Agreed.

Re: This year’s Nobel prizes prompt soul-searching among economists

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"One day when I was a junior medical student, a very important Boston surgeon visited the school and delivered a great treatise on a large number of patients who had undergone successful operations for vascular reconstruction. At the end of the lecture, a young student at the back of the room timidly asked, “Do you have any controls?” Well, the great surgeon drew himself up to his full height, hit the desk, and said,…

The way this story was structured makes me unsure if it really happened or not.

It's a quote of a quote of a quote of...

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jvi9LLcvZxm529496/rationalit...

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