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Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft

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Re: Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft

#81

First: A stock can rise for reasons having zero to do with the reality of the business behind the stock, for example mispricing, availability or the lack thereof of alternative investments, inflation, currency devaluation etc. Second: To me it always leaves a very foul aftertaste when the achievements of a team are ascribed to whoever the visible front-person is. I find it hard to believe that among the other 149999…

Take him away then. Imagine he just vanished. Took a sabbatical, didn't say where he was going, and just disappeared for a year. What would happen? Things would function. They'd probably be fine for the first couple months, and they might even pass their first quarterly earnings without anyone noticing he's gone. If the department heads all were quiet and didn't notify the shareholders, things would seem completely f…

You can make the same argument with a member of the board or specific engineers or designers. Johnny Ive leaving apple could leave the apple design team to tribalism like the Apple II days.

It's trivial for a CEO to issue a puff piece as a marketing tool. Steve Jobs tried to advertise himself next to Ghandi. Assigning credit is a difficult game. Studies show people over and under assign credit. The best/most realistic crediting of work to successful performance ratio ended up with the team crediting to one another something like 115% over how much work was actually done.

Debating over blame and credit is mostly a waste of time, even though people fundamentally need positive feedback for good work and negative feedback for bad work. It's mostly used politically in big corps and that's a big void I try to stay away from.

Re: Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft

#82
From his chart:

- MSFT revenue/share price @ 2014: 86.8 / 37.1

- MSFT revenue/share price @ 2019: 125.8 / 133.52

-> revenue growth: 44.93% / price growth: 259.89%

So either MSFT was significantly under-priced in 2014 or it's over-priced right now.

Also: Disclosure: The author's self-managed super fund owns shares in Microsoft.

Re: Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft

#83
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bill Gates built an amazing airplane. Steve Ballmer crashed it in the desert. Satya Nadella rallied the survivors, put it back together, and got it flying again. Yes, he absolutely deserves the credit just as Ballmer absolutely deserves the blame.

Actually, Ballmer did quite well at MS. He consistently increased earnings via Windows and Office during his tenure as CEO. He was a very good businessman. He was not, however, a product guy. Witness their failures with the Zune, mobile, early cloud computing. His problem was that he always tried to do what would be best for Microsoft and not the customer. You can get away with this if you already have an install bas…

Plus J Allard was phenomenal leader for xBox.

Re: Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft

#84
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you’re only looking at stock price then Ballmer did exceptionally well.

Go look at the stock history, the moment Ballmer became CEO in 2000 the price stopped growing, lulled back down into the ~20-30's and stayed there until he stepped down in 2014. He did "exceptionally well" at keeping it where it was...

Doesn't MS pay dividends? Stock price alone isn't the whole story.

Re: Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft

#86

First: A stock can rise for reasons having zero to do with the reality of the business behind the stock, for example mispricing, availability or the lack thereof of alternative investments, inflation, currency devaluation etc. Second: To me it always leaves a very foul aftertaste when the achievements of a team are ascribed to whoever the visible front-person is. I find it hard to believe that among the other 149999…

Here's what I propose we should do to figure out the causality

1. Split Microsoft into three parts, each with its own exactly equivalent market.

2. Have Satya Nadella as the CEO of one of them, Steve Ballmer as the CEO of the other, and a control group with no CEO in the third.

The lift obtained from the first may be because of Satya Nadella. It's possible that Steve Ballmer may be getting worse over time, which is why you have a third control buckets to compare against.

Re: Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft

#88
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bill Gates built an amazing airplane. Steve Ballmer crashed it in the desert. Satya Nadella rallied the survivors, put it back together, and got it flying again. Yes, he absolutely deserves the credit just as Ballmer absolutely deserves the blame.

Actually, Ballmer did quite well at MS. He consistently increased earnings via Windows and Office during his tenure as CEO. He was a very good businessman. He was not, however, a product guy. Witness their failures with the Zune, mobile, early cloud computing. His problem was that he always tried to do what would be best for Microsoft and not the customer. You can get away with this if you already have an install bas…

The current One Microsoft is Ballmer's vision executed by Nadella. Ballmer absolutely deserves some credit for putting the plan in motion that lead to Microsoft's resurgence. Nadella did NOT take over the company and lead an about face on Ballmers plan. He did extend the plan to be even more open to letting other Microsoft products cannibalize Windows.

https://www.theverge.com/2013/7/12/4516806/one-microsoft-bal...

Re: Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft

#89

The fact that Microsoft is still alive and somehow kicking is a surprise in itself. Computing market swerved wildly and they could have fall apart easily

It's a surprise only if you live in hn bubble

I sounded exagerating but you know that they were under attack in many fields.

They failed on the phone market. The tablet market. (although it may be coming back now). Office got pressure from Google Docs. The desktop market has shrunk.. Even their server side was not strong.

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