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How to recognize AI snake oil [pdf]

cs.princeton.edu

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Re: How to recognize AI snake oil [pdf]

#271

This was a really interesting read. In relation to the discussion of the predictive accuracy of a dataset with 13,000 features, I thought it might be worthwhile to bring up the idea of the "Curse of Dimensionality" for anyone unfamiliar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_dimensionality The "tl;dr" is basically that more features is not necessarily a panacea and can actually cause more problems.

Thanks for adding that to the discussion. I'd like to point out a couple of things:

(1) that adding features can create problems is well known among good ML practitioners (I daresay, esp. to those who have a fair amount of exposure to non-deep-learning techniques). With deep learning you can afford to worry less since with enough data and compute cycles, the network can figure out what to ignore. Which is convenient. Throwing out uninformative features however, may still have a practical benefit: less features -> smaller dataset size -> faster training.

(2) This is probably a minor nitpicky point: adding more features can lead to no improvements not only because of the curse of dimensionality, but sometimes simply because the feature has absolutely no bearing on the label; that is to say you might not be adding noise, but you might not be adding information either.

Re: How to recognize AI snake oil [pdf]

#272
post #20

Top textual feature predicting snake oil: calling the product AI rather than ML.

Dynamic yield was practically pushed into AI. They never promoted doing AI but investors and clients liked it more. So they simply gave up and went with it.

Re: How to recognize AI snake oil [pdf]

#273

My brush with AI snake oil: I interviewed at a startup that seemed fishy. They offer a fully AI powered customer service chat as an off the shelf black box to banks. I highly suspect that they were a pseudo AI setup. LinkedIn shows that they are light on developers but very heavy on “trainers”, probably the people who actually handle the customers, mostly young graduates in unrelated fields, who may believe that thei…

I don't think that is in principle problematic (unlike the social problem statements pointed out in the talk). A system which amplifies human resources by filling in for their common activities over time could use sophisticated tech drawing on the latest in NLP. The metric would be a ratio of the number of service requests they handle per day / the number of "trainers" (or whatever name given) compared to the median for a purely human endeavour where every service request is handled by a customer-visible human.

In the Mechanical Turk analogy there is no such capability amplification happening.

Re: How to recognize AI snake oil [pdf]

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since we are sharing anecdotes, I can report it's been 20 years of buying stuff on the internet and the combined billions of ad tracking research dollars spent by Amazon and Google have not yet come up with a better algorithm than to bombard me with ads for the exact same thing I just bought .

I just spent 15m on Amazon trying to prod the recommendation algorithm into finding something I actually wanted to buy so I could get above the "free delivery threshold". Think about that. I wanted to spend money. I wasn't too fussy what it was. Amazon has a decade of my purchasing and browsing history. And they still failed.

don't gift card count anymore?

Re: How to recognize AI snake oil [pdf]

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>YouTube's "Up Next" recommendations do (significantly) better than random, therefore "Today ML can solve some problems". IMO YT AI is the opposite of intelligent , it still recommends things I disliked. for some reason this basic rule of not showing something that I explicitly disliked was to hard for it to learn, I am wondering if it is truly an AI behind it or just statistics

Isn't AI statistics?

The modern AI/ML is more like we throw a lot of data and we generate a model, we know that it works but we have no idea how and why.

Re: How to recognize AI snake oil [pdf]

#277

I don't have time to read the entire paper but I would like to share an anecdote. I worked at a company with a well staffed/funded machine learning team. They were in charge of recommendation systems - think along the lines of youtube up next videos. My team wanted better recommendations (really, less editorial intensive) so the ML team spent weeks crafting 12 or more variants of their recommendation system for our c…

Interestingly, Steam's recommendation algorithm to show "similar to a game" by their 'learning machines' works very well. I have found really good games via that, and none of them did show up in the regular recommendations/carousel on top.

Re: How to recognize AI snake oil [pdf]

#278
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well to be fair that's how all employers also hire. If you did a good job at the last company you'll probably do a good job here. If you did a good job yesterday, you'll probably do a good job today. For the most part they are usually correct.

I remember reading Steve Jobs used a "different" technique to figure out if someone was good. He would go around to people and say "I heard Joe sucks". If the people strongly defended Joe, he was probably pretty good. If nobody stuck up for him, Joe might indeed suck.

Probably everyone would be silent as well if someone said "Steve Jobs sucks". This anecdote is meaningless TBH.

Re: How to recognize AI snake oil [pdf]

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>YouTube's "Up Next" recommendations do (significantly) better than random, therefore "Today ML can solve some problems". IMO YT AI is the opposite of intelligent , it still recommends things I disliked. for some reason this basic rule of not showing something that I explicitly disliked was to hard for it to learn, I am wondering if it is truly an AI behind it or just statistics

It's intentional. Controversy is a strong signal for the youtube algorithm.

I don't think so, the videos I was referring were music videos. I engaged with it in a way but hitting dislike on a music genre I don't want to listen(I normally don't dislike things because is not my genre) in the hope the algorithm will learn but it was even worse, it did not learned that I disliked artist X and genre Y it continue to play the exact video that I disliked,

The bad algorithm will force the unhappy user to use manually created playlists leaving less people to engage with the algorithm and probably have the algorithm getting worse in time as more users will avoid it

And even more interesting trying to google "how to make youtube not show X" it is a complete fail, it will just show you youtube video results.

Re: How to recognize AI snake oil [pdf]

#280
post #165
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can't teach a human how to do something when the methodology to do that is the student trying something and the teacher saying "Yes" or "No". Strangely, I recently had to complete a cognitive test that was essentially that process. I was given a series of pages, each of which had a number of shapes and a multiple choice answer. I was told whether I chose the correct answer, then the page was flipped to the next…

You're touching on the "difficulty" in verbalizing it. I see what you mean, because you did learn that the heuristic was changing with just a yes or no. I said you can't teach that way, but you clearly learned that way, so I wasn't exactly correct, but I'm not practically wrong either still I don't think. I wonder, how would an AI perform on the same test. What is the mathematical minimum number of questions on such…

> I wonder, how would an AI perform on the same test.

This situation is called Multi-armed Bandit. In this setup you have a number of actions at your disposal and need to maximise rewards by selecting the most efficient actions. But the results are stochastic and the player doesn't know which action is best. They need to 'spend' some time trying out various actions but then focus on those that work better. In a variant of this problem, the rewards associated to actions are also changing in time. It's a very well studied problem, a form of simple reinforcement learning.

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