Stadia is a mess of inconsistencies in strategy that I can't seem to resolve.
It provides the closest to an "awesome" experience when wired up on fast, reliable internet. But its also the most interesting in a mobile setting where I can't necessarily have dedicated gaming hardware, but where I'll also have inconsistent WiFi/LTE.
Its target market isn't really traditional gamers, instead, I guess, focusing on the untapped segment of casual "gamer-interested" people. But, these people are going to generate FAR less revenue. And, there's a free tier? Why would people who play very casually choose to pay for it? Cloud gaming is an insanely expensive infrastructure investment. What's their revenue plan?
In a couple months, xCloud will be out. XBL Gold gives me like three games per month. Game Pass has, like, 200 games including some awesome titles like Gears 5. Unclear how much xCloud will cost, but I'm certain Microsoft is willing to fight on competitive pricing. Why should I buy Cyberpunk on Stadia? Why should anyone? The incumbents have insanely good first-party studios churning out exclusives; they have brand recognition; they have consumer trust; they have the technology and DC footprint; there's no visible plan here to convince anyone that Stadia is the platform to be on, which means their customers won't be loyal. They're giving them no reason to be.
Cloud gaming, in general, is pretty cool. I love the tech, and I could see myself using it... but as a value-add to a home setup. I think that's where it'll shine, and that's what xCloud is targeting. My broader point isn't that there aren't people who will find Stadia as a good fit for them, but rather that Stadia isn't going to survive just on those people. Cloud gaming only makes sense as a value-add to a broader platform that can support it, both from a revenue and consumer experience perspective.