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Ask HN: YC new move will change SV dynamics. Are you sure for the better?

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11–20 of 22 posts

Re: Ask HN: YC new move will change SV dynamics. Are you sure for the better?

#11
How can you predict there will be lots of wasted money? Blindly investing in a group of startups because of a high profile incubator they're participating in is a practice in publicity and, as an investment, a bet against numbers at worse.

I'm gambling that YC and Yuri are pretty smart about what they're doing. It's a branding/publicity exercise that will probably return just a few (not important) numbers for Yuri that uses these YC kids as a vehicle.

Re: Ask HN: YC new move will change SV dynamics. Are you sure for the better?

#12
It looks like a bubble, and in the human history every bubble has crushed; soon or later.

My understanding is that each bubbles require leverage (credit, margins, etc.) with imperfectly informed lenders. You might call this as a bad investment (which I don't think - internet and mobile is finaly maturing), but it lacks definition of bubble.

Re: Ask HN: YC new move will change SV dynamics. Are you sure for the better?

#14
post #10

With this move all small angel investors are out of biz. What? The startups we fund almost always want to raise more than $150k. I would guess the median startup in the last YC batch raised 4 to 5 times that much.

The poster is assuming that once a YC startup is funded with a convertible note with no cap and no discount, that all other notes in the round will be at similar terms (and thus small angels won't be able to afford to participate in the deal). Maybe he doesn't realize that you can raise an angel round with different terms for different investors.

Personally, I don't think many YC companies in the batch will be able to raise an entire round with no cap, no discount. However, the $150K investment from SV Angel/Yuri will help companies negotiate better deal terms than they would have otherwise obtained.

Re: Ask HN: YC new move will change SV dynamics. Are you sure for the better?

#15
post #10

With this move all small angel investors are out of biz. What? The startups we fund almost always want to raise more than $150k. I would guess the median startup in the last YC batch raised 4 to 5 times that much.

I mean...this is for sure the right move to help entrepreneurs, but I'm not sure about the near future.

How a small angel investor can invest in conv. debt. without cap and discount? Maybe the no cap/discount are only for SV/Yuri but I guess that in any case startups (even if they need more than 150k) will feel more confortable with some nice cash in the bank, thus they will become more picky and will ask for hyper-strong favorable terms that not anyone will be able to afford (good for entrepreneurs). Therefore a lot of small angel investors can't invest anymore in YC startups (I guess YC will push out 100 startups/year - for sure a big chunk). Thus, they will go somewhere and the one who were able to invest, were able to invest at huge valuations whit less nice terms, so they will get smaller future returns (bad for the future of the ecosystem).

To conclude, my concerns are not about now but about the future cause there is a risk that we'll have less angels, then less money available for entrepreneurs. I may be wrong though...

(obviously we're talking only about investments into YC startups; investors can always invest elsewhere. So when I said "out of biz" it was more about the "YC related biz")

Re: Ask HN: YC new move will change SV dynamics. Are you sure for the better?

#16

It most definitely will. The potential to be severely diluted in the next round with uncapped convertible debt is a real potential. It also can perversely make the angel wish for a lower valuation on the series A so they convert at a higher percentage. Overall I don't think that this affects VCs as much as it does angels. If anything you will start to see angels move up the food chain and raise bigger funds to go aft…

They wouldn't be diluted at all. Convertible debt is not a priced round.

Re: Ask HN: YC new move will change SV dynamics. Are you sure for the better?

#18
post #12

It looks like a bubble, and in the human history every bubble has crushed; soon or later. My understanding is that each bubbles require leverage (credit, margins, etc.) with imperfectly informed lenders. You might call this as a bad investment (which I don't think - internet and mobile is finaly maturing), but it lacks definition of bubble.

I don't think the usual definition involves leverage, though that can certainly contribute to bubbles; a "bubble" is just any speculative run-up in asset values where they temporarily deviate greatly from intrinsic/long-run values.

Re: Ask HN: YC new move will change SV dynamics. Are you sure for the better?

#19

It most definitely will. The potential to be severely diluted in the next round with uncapped convertible debt is a real potential. It also can perversely make the angel wish for a lower valuation on the series A so they convert at a higher percentage. Overall I don't think that this affects VCs as much as it does angels. If anything you will start to see angels move up the food chain and raise bigger funds to go aft…

They wouldn't be diluted at all. Convertible debt is not a priced round.

That is the problem with it being uncapped. The trend from Ycomb were capped convertible notes that put a limit on how much the series A could be priced at. This acts as a type of anti-dilution for the angels who know what their percentage ownership will be on the next round. The problem with uncapped is that you can be diluted to very little ownership depending on the valuation for the series A which sets a share price and conversion number for your note. In this sense you have the potential to be substantially squeezed down in the round which is how I was using diluted.

Re: Ask HN: YC new move will change SV dynamics. Are you sure for the better?

#20
post #15
post #10

With this move all small angel investors are out of biz. What? The startups we fund almost always want to raise more than $150k. I would guess the median startup in the last YC batch raised 4 to 5 times that much.

I mean...this is for sure the right move to help entrepreneurs, but I'm not sure about the near future. How a small angel investor can invest in conv. debt. without cap and discount? Maybe the no cap/discount are only for SV/Yuri but I guess that in any case startups (even if they need more than 150k) will feel more confortable with some nice cash in the bank, thus they will become more picky and will ask for hyper-s…

How a small angel investor can invest in conv. debt. without cap and discount?

That doesn't make it any more expensive to invest; it just decreases the eventual returns. But that variation in returns will be dwarfed by the variation caused by which startup you pick. Which means investing with no cap would be business as usual for angels.

Not that they would have to in any case. We don't anticipate that the startups' additional money will have to come with no cap. Ron and Yuri had to do this because to make their fund work like an index fund, they had to get the entire batch, which meant they had to make it an offer no rational founder would refuse.

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