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Black Tide in Brazil

correspondent.afp.com

11–20 of 62 posts

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#11

A bit of local context. The Brazilian president accused Green Peace in staging the accident. Also according to Bolsanaro fish are not dumb and if they see oil they are going to avoid it (that was a real treasure for memes).

the price was even higher to stay with the same party

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#12
post #8
post #3

Total especutlation mode about the origin of this disaster: Venezuela is suffering oil export sanctions. When that kind of sanction happens it's not uncommon to transport oil in ships with "rented" flags or no flags to ports of close countries, so the oil is incorporated to that country's production and can be sold. It is a tiny quantity, but generate some money to some people. As everything clandestine, this transpo…

You’re right on. Chemical analysis has already confirmed that the oil comes from Venezuelan fields, and the quantity is smaller than you’d expect, they are currently investigating a handful of suspect ships, but most likely the responsible one would have had its comm equipment turned off and hence not recorded by radar.

Turning communications equipment off is all that's necessary to disappear from radar?

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#14
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re right on. Chemical analysis has already confirmed that the oil comes from Venezuelan fields, and the quantity is smaller than you’d expect, they are currently investigating a handful of suspect ships, but most likely the responsible one would have had its comm equipment turned off and hence not recorded by radar.

Do you have source for the chemical analysis? Curious to read...

I'm not sure if data from the analysis will be made available to the large public anytime soon, but in the links below you can find more information about the protocol in use, measures taken so far and a statement from Petrobrás about the type of oil found in the region.

https://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2019/10/25/petrobras-d...

https://www.marinha.mil.br/manchasdeoleo/informacoes-sobre-o...

http://www.petrobras.com.br/fatos-e-dados/recolhemos-mais-de...

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#15

A bit of local context. The Brazilian president accused Green Peace in staging the accident. Also according to Bolsanaro fish are not dumb and if they see oil they are going to avoid it (that was a real treasure for memes).

Bolsonaro has a long history of not having the slightest clue about how to manage an ecological emergency.

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#16
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re right on. Chemical analysis has already confirmed that the oil comes from Venezuelan fields, and the quantity is smaller than you’d expect, they are currently investigating a handful of suspect ships, but most likely the responsible one would have had its comm equipment turned off and hence not recorded by radar.

Turning communications equipment off is all that's necessary to disappear from radar?

Radar can detect ships that don't cooperate with it, but not identify them.

Ships are supposed to actively cooperate with a system called AIS (which is like aviation's ADS-B).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_identification_syste...

If they use AIS as required, they will be identified by receivers that they pass nearby.

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#17
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re right on. Chemical analysis has already confirmed that the oil comes from Venezuelan fields, and the quantity is smaller than you’d expect, they are currently investigating a handful of suspect ships, but most likely the responsible one would have had its comm equipment turned off and hence not recorded by radar.

Turning communications equipment off is all that's necessary to disappear from radar?

Not exactly...

turning off radios would prevent inadvertent/automatic transmissions

disabling transponders would reduce footprint on more modernized port control radars

not using radar from ownship reduces the chance of being seen

all these together would render the ship's ELINT footprint down to an old school blob on whatever radar plot

that's about as anonymous as you can get without active countermeasures and those are VERY obvious

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#18
post #3

Total especutlation mode about the origin of this disaster: Venezuela is suffering oil export sanctions. When that kind of sanction happens it's not uncommon to transport oil in ships with "rented" flags or no flags to ports of close countries, so the oil is incorporated to that country's production and can be sold. It is a tiny quantity, but generate some money to some people. As everything clandestine, this transpo…

A common hypothesis in South America is that Maduro did that on purpose. Maduro and Bolsonaro are on the opposite side of the political spectrum and I don't find that hard to believe.

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#19
post #7

A bit of local context. The Brazilian president accused Green Peace in staging the accident. Also according to Bolsanaro fish are not dumb and if they see oil they are going to avoid it (that was a real treasure for memes).

I wonder when the middle class and the entrepreneurs will realize the price was too high for the promise of reforms. I won't comment on other countries but the 2018 elections in Brazil are a warning for all people that think voting for an "outsider" is the way to solve problems. Fun fact, Bolsonaro has been a politician for 28 years but still ran the campaign on the "outsider" message. Reason #1 I'm avoiding the news…

Economically Brazil has been considerably better since he got elected and most things seem to be moving in the right direction. What exactly is this cost that you mentioned?

Re: Black Tide in Brazil

#20
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder when the middle class and the entrepreneurs will realize the price was too high for the promise of reforms. I won't comment on other countries but the 2018 elections in Brazil are a warning for all people that think voting for an "outsider" is the way to solve problems. Fun fact, Bolsonaro has been a politician for 28 years but still ran the campaign on the "outsider" message. Reason #1 I'm avoiding the news…

Economically Brazil has been considerably better since he got elected and most things seem to be moving in the right direction. What exactly is this cost that you mentioned?

Considering the comment he responded to I interpreted the cost being ... the truth. Toss out the truth and I'm not sure you can count on anything.
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