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Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

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111–120 of 182 posts

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#111
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to the Lazard estimate of levelized cost of energy, spending the same money on nuclear fission would produce one third of the power.

Is that with or without energy storage you'd need for the wind turbines? Does the estimate account for the fact that building a large number of nuclear plants means dramatically cheaper unit cost?

Completely independent of storage. And that said, if you go offshore, you don't really need a lot of storage.

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#112
post #87
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to take a lot more than $1T and a decade for fusion to be cost-competitive with wind and solar.

How are wind and solar cost-competitive when they can exist in Germany only with extreme high subsidies? Look at the new windfarm called "Wikinger" that Germany built near the island of Ruegen: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offshore-Windpark_Wikinger Cost: 1.4 billion Euros Lifetime: 20 years Power: 350 MW Max. capacity: 0.4 (40%) Price at the electricity stock exchange Leipzig: 36 Euro/MWh Thus: 350 0.4 24 365 20*36…

Then again the German government seems dead set on also subsidizing coal/gas by not internalizing their societal costs. So just removing those "subsidies" would already make wind/solar more attractive. Turns out, energy needs to be more expensive, and we should probably save energy.

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A common argument; Michael Schellenberger addresses it here: https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shellenberger_why_renewabl... Basically, cats kills sparrows and other small and extremely prolific urban birds. Those birds aren't what wind turbines threaten. Wind turbines threaten larger prey birds like owls, eagles, falcons, etc.

Rather than trying to poke holes in my response you could look at all cause mortality tables for birds. You can compare wind turbines with the many other sources - heavy metal poising, car and plane collisions, habitat loss - and you can compare it to estimated turbine collisions. Cornell Ornithology Lab is a great resource. This isn't an ideal situation, but you can't talk about this sensibly without the background…

Oh I hear you on the planetary emergency, and I'm all about having multiple irons in the fire. But each pillar of the strategy should stand on its own merits.

You don't get to lead with "meh the birds are not a big deal, they're mostly common ones" and then when challenged, pivot to "so what if it's endangered predatory birds? We're in an emergency here!"

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#114
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Land based ones are often on plains or ridges. Steady and unimpeded wind is why aerial and offshore have better EROI.

Do land-based ones compete with agricultural usage?

We have huge wind farms here in Minnesota and Iowa. They're in the middle of crop fields. No problem at all.

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transmission!!! A huge appeal of offshore for densely populated areas is you can put the huge turbines far off the coast of a dense area and then have very effective transmission, something which onshore is vastly limited by due to NIMBYism and lobbying and regulation.

And offshore winds are steady, reliable, and really conveniently timed: early evening is the peak, right after solar is done.

In that case they will compliment each other well.

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#116
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to take a lot more than $1T and a decade for fusion to be cost-competitive with wind and solar.

> It's going to take a lot more than $1T and a decade for fusion to be cost-competitive with wind and solar. Wind and solar don't even compete in the same category as nuclear until you include storage. Cheap, bursty energy is useless for base-load. Wind/solar are still far more expensive than fossil and nuclear when you take into account the over-provisioning and energy storage requirements to provide reliable base-l…

There is no requirement that the grid requires "baseload" sources of power. The grid can operate with flexible sources of power that can ramp (gas, some hydro, etc.) in addition to wind and solar. If anything nuclear and coal, which can only run at 80-100% capacity or 0% capacity are inconvenient and inflexible sources of power.

The grid survives fine when nuclear and coal plants go offline for several days for maintenance/turn-arounds!

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#117
post #58

This is nuts. I wonder what the effect of spending $1T on nuclear would be in comparison. I bet it's enough money to get to practical nuclear fusion in a decade, which would largely obviate the need in most other energy generation methods.

Why is spending money on a sure thing, in the face of a global emergency with a ticking clock, "nuts", relative to wasting a decade and a trillion dollars on fantasy tech that may or may not work at all?

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#118
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that with or without energy storage you'd need for the wind turbines? Does the estimate account for the fact that building a large number of nuclear plants means dramatically cheaper unit cost?

Completely independent of storage. And that said, if you go offshore, you don't really need a lot of storage.

> And that said, if you go offshore, you don't really need a lot of storage.

How does that work?

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#119
post #87
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's going to take a lot more than $1T and a decade for fusion to be cost-competitive with wind and solar.

How are wind and solar cost-competitive when they can exist in Germany only with extreme high subsidies? Look at the new windfarm called "Wikinger" that Germany built near the island of Ruegen: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offshore-Windpark_Wikinger Cost: 1.4 billion Euros Lifetime: 20 years Power: 350 MW Max. capacity: 0.4 (40%) Price at the electricity stock exchange Leipzig: 36 Euro/MWh Thus: 350 0.4 24 365 20*36…

> Lifetime: 20 years Power

Is that really the lifetime of the farm, or is it just when turbines need to be replaced?

Re: Offshore wind will be a $1T industry by 2040, but it's needed now

#120
post #90

Oil and gas ("energy") companies are investing a lot into wind energy. They know they have to adopt. In the end they just want profits and they have the capital to make the right investments. I really wish the environmentalist movement saw them as just another money hungry corporation instead some evil villain out to destroy the planet. They would love to diversify their revenue stream, now is a good time to work wit…

> another money hungry corporation instead some evil villain out to destroy the planet.

Greed can destroy the planet all the same. So money hungry is hardly an excuse for evil behavior.

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