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Ask HN: Why do so many startups claim machine learning is their long game?

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11–20 of 78 posts

Re: Ask HN: Why do so many startups claim machine learning is their long game?

#11
Because they are probably temporarily using mechanical turks. If they admit that their evaluations will be terrible because that kind of company cannot scale like a SaaS company - it'll be valued like Professional Services which is "not good".

So if you say you're going the ML route your perceived value is much higher.

Re: Ask HN: Why do so many startups claim machine learning is their long game?

#12
Because there is a real moat with data ownership and pipelines. If you want to do any analysis you quickly find that learning to properly use scikit-learn and tensorflow (or your machine learning algorithm of your choice) is atleast an order of magnitude lower of work than getting the data. For instance, I wanted to build a machine learning algorithm which took simple data from the SEC filed 10-Q and 10-K, which are freely available online and predict whether stocks were likely to outperform the market average for over the next 3 years.

Time to setup up scikit learn and tensorflow algorithms to make predictions: 4 hours. Time to setup python scripts which could parse through the excel spreadsheets, figure out which row corresponded to gross profit margin, and a few other "standard" metrics: ??? unknown because I gave up at about 80 hours trying to figure out rules to process all the different spreadsheets and how names were determined.

I had a professor who was doing machine learning + chemistry. He was building up his own personal database for machine learning. He spent ~5 years with about 500 computers building the database so that he would be able to do the actual the machine learning.

Re: Ask HN: Why do so many startups claim machine learning is their long game?

#13
post #4

There are surely some startups for which this is bullshit. But the good version of it is: - take some valuable task that's never been successfully automated before - do it manually (and expensively) for a while to acquire data - build an automated system with some combination of regular software and ML models trained on the data - now you can do a valuable task for free - scale up and profit The risk is that it's har…

> The risk is that it's hard to guess how much data you'll need to train an accurate, automated model. Maybe it's very large, and you can't keep doing it manually long enough to get there. Maybe it's very small and lots of companies will automate the same task and you won't have any advantage.

I think you forgot most important option. It may not be a data problem. You may have all the data in the world and still not being able to solve the issue.

Capabilities of ML are much more limited than hype makes people believe

Re: Ask HN: Why do so many startups claim machine learning is their long game?

#15

Because there is a real moat with data ownership and pipelines. If you want to do any analysis you quickly find that learning to properly use scikit-learn and tensorflow (or your machine learning algorithm of your choice) is atleast an order of magnitude lower of work than getting the data. For instance, I wanted to build a machine learning algorithm which took simple data from the SEC filed 10-Q and 10-K, which are…

So much this!!! In all fairness, it doesn't matter what you pick up, you'll spend north of 80% of your time preparing and pre-processing data, which is almost always catastrophically tedious and boring. Annoyingly that also applies to publicly available datasets - pre-processing is still most of the work. For instance, the tensorflow team invested a lot of time and effort into tf.data for that reason but imo it doesn't make things a whole lot better.

Re: Ask HN: Why do so many startups claim machine learning is their long game?

#16
post #6
post #4

There are surely some startups for which this is bullshit. But the good version of it is: - take some valuable task that's never been successfully automated before - do it manually (and expensively) for a while to acquire data - build an automated system with some combination of regular software and ML models trained on the data - now you can do a valuable task for free - scale up and profit The risk is that it's har…

This seems too easy a recipe to be worth it in the medium term - there is no moat. Better cover your data with very strict laws, like google does with its exclusive deals for medical data use.

Google didn't add any "laws" around that data though.

The laws were already quite strict (HIPAA) and the data relatively inaccessible.

Google jumped through all the hoops to get it. And an exclusive contract never hurts no matter what the service. (Logistics, payment processor, etc.)

Re: Ask HN: Why do so many startups claim machine learning is their long game?

#18
post #5

It's like the gold rush except the gold (data) is easy to make, and very very cheap. hmm better sell shovels.

Yeah, people say that, but it's hard to see what selling shovels would amount to. I mean, hardware/cloud is commoditized, ML software is free. Maybe Uber for annotators /s (read, Mechanical Turk).

(Of course, there is the ever more popular route of making services for enterprises wanting to outsource basic stuff.)

Re: Ask HN: Why do so many startups claim machine learning is their long game?

#19
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems too easy a recipe to be worth it in the medium term - there is no moat. Better cover your data with very strict laws, like google does with its exclusive deals for medical data use.

Google didn't add any "laws" around that data though. The laws were already quite strict (HIPAA) and the data relatively inaccessible. Google jumped through all the hoops to get it. And an exclusive contract never hurts no matter what the service. (Logistics, payment processor, etc.)

> an exclusive contract never hurts

Thats why this is unfair. The health industry incentivizes (and often mandates) open publishing of scientific results, but patient data is reserved with gold chains for the exclusive use of google

Re: Ask HN: Why do so many startups claim machine learning is their long game?

#20
Because rule based software is now a commodity, and therefore has lower margin. ML is more risky to achieve, may not work on a given dataset, and requires scarce specialized thinking, therefore is worth betting capital on. ML is the new stock while software is the new bond.
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