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Ask HN: Which industry will most likely produce the first trillionaire?

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Re: Ask HN: Which industry will most likely produce the first trillionaire?

#13
Artificial General Intelligence is creating the first group of multi-trillionaires

Elon Musk & Andrej Karpathy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBklltKXtDE

Elon Musk & Max Hodak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wqb7P3u5ujw

Larry Page & Sergey brin

Bill Gates https://youtu.be/s7O3oCWZgjE?t=225

Mark Zuckerberg & Abhinav Gupta https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-swj_rj3luE https://research.fb.com/publications/canonical-surface-mappi...

Jason Kelly https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaVsc65iu6E

John & Patrick Collison https://youtu.be/_4t12rS6_jo?t=700 ------------------------ To make a trillion

- sell ~33,333,333 cars at $30,000 - sell ~2,000,000,000 devices at $500 - sell ~10,000,000 virtual developers at $100,000 / year

Re: Ask HN: Which industry will most likely produce the first trillionaire?

#14
I'd say it's something that has to grow exponentially for a very long time.

That rules something like finance out, which compounds very poorly, and hasn't produced trillionaires despite being around for centuries.

I'd bet on education. Colleges and universities can be worth billions each. While the billion dollar ones are pretty good, the sub billion ones aren't and are getting competed with by several month courses.

It seems something mostly neglected. Universities hire the smartest people, but teaching still uses the same old lecturing technique for decades, despite all this interactive technology. We've learned a lot about psychology and productivity. We have tried improving education technology, but it seems to just be a side gimmick. This can also be combined with upcoming new tech like AI to work better.

It seems like something that compounds very well. If you can hack your brain to have, say, 90% comprehension, and comprehend harder things, you can also discover better education techniques and train others.

Energy would be second. Oil has already produced trillionaire families, but it's too big to concentrate on one person.

I'd imagine Bill Gates's shiny new nuclear plants could push him into trillionaire territory. Combined with the new electrical vehicle trend, people could be migrating from oil to electricity.

Re: Ask HN: Which industry will most likely produce the first trillionaire?

#15
post #14

I'd say it's something that has to grow exponentially for a very long time. That rules something like finance out, which compounds very poorly, and hasn't produced trillionaires despite being around for centuries. I'd bet on education. Colleges and universities can be worth billions each. While the billion dollar ones are pretty good, the sub billion ones aren't and are getting competed with by several month courses.…

I'm betting on Education too. Healthcare seems just as big and inefficient to me honestly.

Re: Ask HN: Which industry will most likely produce the first trillionaire?

#17
post #7

Asteroid Mining

IMHO this is the only correct answer. Some of the smallest asteroids clock in at Quintillions of dollars of value for their minerals. Even if only 1% of their value makes it dirtside that's a big ol' chunk of dosh.

Re: Ask HN: Which industry will most likely produce the first trillionaire?

#18
post #7

Asteroid Mining

IMHO this is the only correct answer. Some of the smallest asteroids clock in at Quintillions of dollars of value for their minerals. Even if only 1% of their value makes it dirtside that's a big ol' chunk of dosh.

I hope I can live long enough to see the effects of asteroid mining on the world and the economy.

Palladium today is $1704.73 per ounce, but the price of palladium comes from the fact that it's extremely rare on Earth. But what if someone comes back from an asteroid with an amount of palladium that suddenly triples the worldwide supply? What will the effects be on the price point? I'm sure the costs of getting it back planetside will be factored in and slow down any inflation, but I am still curious.

And what kind of things could we create, given a vastly increased supply of rare elements?

Re: Ask HN: Which industry will most likely produce the first trillionaire?

#19
post #14

I'd say it's something that has to grow exponentially for a very long time. That rules something like finance out, which compounds very poorly, and hasn't produced trillionaires despite being around for centuries. I'd bet on education. Colleges and universities can be worth billions each. While the billion dollar ones are pretty good, the sub billion ones aren't and are getting competed with by several month courses.…

I'm betting on Education too. Healthcare seems just as big and inefficient to me honestly.

Healthcare, yeah.

It doesn't have the exponential effect, though, and it's a big market spread over many players. I'm sure it could be more efficient, but how much does that change?

Then again, reading the Checklist Manifesto, where a checklist made such a difference, that makes me think that healthcare can be far improved.

Re: Ask HN: Which industry will most likely produce the first trillionaire?

#20
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO this is the only correct answer. Some of the smallest asteroids clock in at Quintillions of dollars of value for their minerals. Even if only 1% of their value makes it dirtside that's a big ol' chunk of dosh.

I hope I can live long enough to see the effects of asteroid mining on the world and the economy. Palladium today is $1704.73 per ounce, but the price of palladium comes from the fact that it's extremely rare on Earth. But what if someone comes back from an asteroid with an amount of palladium that suddenly triples the worldwide supply? What will the effects be on the price point? I'm sure the costs of getting it bac…

If you have a stranglehold on an exceptionally rare resource, I'm not sure it would be a wise business move to suddenly triple the world's supply.
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