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Renaissance Technologies

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Re: Renaissance Technologies

#51
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

66% CAGR is impossible. That would mean every million dollars you invested turns into $4 Trillion.

Well, the thing is that they cap the size of the fund at $10B so it's not really a CAGR per se as the original capital isn't appreciating at that rate. It's just they have $10B invested and then they distribute $6.6B per year and that's it (i.e., the fund doesn't become $16.6B next year). Still take your point that it's an insane figure!

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Re: Renaissance Technologies

#52
post #39

Note that RenTec also runs two other funds that are larger than the Medallion Fund, but both under perform the index. On a completely unrelated note, if I were interested in creating a fund that appeared to have market beating returns for decades and I wasn't concerned about the legal consequences, here's one way I might do it: I would create fund A and B and seed them with some initial capital. For fund A, I would c…

I mean if you want to not go to jail all you really need to do is beat the market by N% and take that as your fee. If N is sufficiently low you can probably do it by aggressively balancing the portfolio every 2-3 years, such that it functions like an index fund but with adjustment to cut out losers.

There are plenty of folks out there that will do this for you. Just don't get greedy.

Re: Renaissance Technologies

#53
post #39

Note that RenTec also runs two other funds that are larger than the Medallion Fund, but both under perform the index. On a completely unrelated note, if I were interested in creating a fund that appeared to have market beating returns for decades and I wasn't concerned about the legal consequences, here's one way I might do it: I would create fund A and B and seed them with some initial capital. For fund A, I would c…

To be frank, running this sham for 30 years sounds less plausible to me than beating the market the boring way. How would you stop investors in your two public funds (and their accountants) from asking pointed questions about disbursements from one fund to the others? Do you plan to fool them for this amount of time, or bring them into the conspiracy? And how will you sustain the conspiracy when your other two funds…

There would be no disbursements from one fund to the other. Fund A would purchase an asset slowly over time. When it has finished purchasing the asset, fund B would purchase that asset quickly at a scale large enough to increase the market price of it. As the price rose, fund A would sell its position.

The net effect is that fund A sees increased returns and fund B sees decreased returns.

Re: Renaissance Technologies

#54
post #39

Note that RenTec also runs two other funds that are larger than the Medallion Fund, but both under perform the index. On a completely unrelated note, if I were interested in creating a fund that appeared to have market beating returns for decades and I wasn't concerned about the legal consequences, here's one way I might do it: I would create fund A and B and seed them with some initial capital. For fund A, I would c…

Just to make sure I understand you: the idea is that the excess returns of fund A above the index would be no larger than the under returns of fund B below the index?

Re: Renaissance Technologies

#55
Jim Simons and David E. Shaw are legends who should have some HBO series about them. Both were researchers who left academia to beat the scumbags of wall streets in their own game with no finance background and they made unbelievably so much money in a very short of time that they would have been jailed or killed if they weren't in the US.

Re: Renaissance Technologies

#56
post #49

So much negativity in this thread. We fear or doubt what we do not understand I guess.

You must have some nice ruby-tinted glasses to be able to put a positive spin on "secretive hedge fund with black-box trading algorithm hires scientists to makes rich people lots of money"

Re: Renaissance Technologies

#57
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be frank, running this sham for 30 years sounds less plausible to me than beating the market the boring way. How would you stop investors in your two public funds (and their accountants) from asking pointed questions about disbursements from one fund to the others? Do you plan to fool them for this amount of time, or bring them into the conspiracy? And how will you sustain the conspiracy when your other two funds…

There would be no disbursements from one fund to the other. Fund A would purchase an asset slowly over time. When it has finished purchasing the asset, fund B would purchase that asset quickly at a scale large enough to increase the market price of it. As the price rose, fund A would sell its position. The net effect is that fund A sees increased returns and fund B sees decreased returns.

And, importantly, the proportional impact in fund A is much larger than the one in fund B

Re: Renaissance Technologies

#58
post #31

Either really good math or really good insider trading.

Heres Numberphile interviewing James: https://www.youtube.com/watch?src_vid=gjVDqfUhXOY&v=QNznD9hM... He's a MIT/Berkley Math professor.

I met him a few times when I was a grad student at Stony Brook (Physics). I can't speak for his particular math skills, but he's in possession of an incredibly sharp mind.

The Simons Center for Geometry and Physics has an art gallery and an associated lecture series, and James often shows up to participate in these events. Luckily, these events are free to enter for all graduate students. At one of these events, I'd commented that a particular piece reminded me of a crystalline structure I was interested in studying (as a li-ion cathode). James overheard me and came over to quiz me on some of my group's work. About 8 months later, I ran into him at another lecture. While he didn't remember my name, he asked how my hollandite simulations had turned out.

This anecdote doesn't really prove anything, other than that Dr Simons is a pretty cool dude.

Re: Renaissance Technologies

#59
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not run by Robert Mercer. He's no longer a co-CEO. And if that's your conclusion, you should probably reexamine your priors.

Right, it's run by his designated successor, whose wealth comes from Mercer's "trading strategy".

because they were on the same IBM speech/nlp team...

Re: Renaissance Technologies

#60
post #39

Note that RenTec also runs two other funds that are larger than the Medallion Fund, but both under perform the index. On a completely unrelated note, if I were interested in creating a fund that appeared to have market beating returns for decades and I wasn't concerned about the legal consequences, here's one way I might do it: I would create fund A and B and seed them with some initial capital. For fund A, I would c…

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