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What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital advertising?

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Re: What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital advertising?

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Acquiring an audiences to divide into a split test is the hard part. It is something that could work for retargeting existing users but doesn't work for acquiring new visitors.

Not quite. One tool with FB lift tests is to make a lookalike audience. FB will then split that audience in two for you so you have a test and control group. The original test required two ad accounts and keeping your overall advertising static (not changing anything) for the duration. Today it is much easier and has a lot more features. Google does a search lift test with YouTube as well. You can run a large set of…

FB can track ads using clicks and view through. With a control group, you can only use view through. I am just skeptical of how it is a fair test especially when FB has an interest to prove that ads work.

YouTube brand lift is an indirect measure that is hard to translate to actual sales to see if the ads were cost effective.

The math is fuzzy when measuring marketing ads and it is real hard to be truly scientific.

Re: What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital advertising?

#272
post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i m talking about total advertising as a share of GDP[1]. The shift to digital is naturally following the eyeballs of users. Google's profits rocket while others' fall. The question is, did this shift drive increased consumer spending ? https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rachel_Soloveichik/publ...

But isn't digital advertising substantially cheaper than traditional ad buys (e.g. print, TV)? If clients can spend much less to reach the same number of potential customers, why is it necessary for them to spend equal to or more than a traditional ad budget?

If the ROI was higher, then they would spend more. Simple as that. But not company has done this, suggesting the ROI is not as good as was thought circa 2010.

Re: What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital advertising?

#273
post #11

Just as Google won the search engine wars by helping people find what they are looking for, the e-commerce winners will be the companies that help people find what they want to buy (reliably and with confidence). Retail companies are blind to just what a shit-show their websites are (a lot of them even have ads in their online store). Any company that solves this problem for their sector will win it, and this is good…

Amazon more or less won didn't it? It doesn't have total domination of ecommerce but frankly it'd run into anti-trust issues if it did. No company is going to do ecommerce bigger than amazon without getting broken up so yeah... amazon.

Amazon has made lots of products more discoverable. But that's only one component of "help me find what I'm looking for."

Case in point: I'm in the market for a new TV. Based on my experience with prior TVs, I believe I want something with high contrast, low reflections (glare), low response time, and high color gamut coverage. Well, some balance of those criteria weighed against price. I'm new to the TV market: how do I find this (on Amazon or elsewhere?)

If I expand, the situation might seem worse. I'm tangentially familiar with two modern display technologies: LCD and LED. I know LEDs offer higher contrast and quicker response time. So I search for LED TV on Amazon. Most of the results do indeed have "LED" and "TV" in the name, and nothing on the product page suggests anything different. But look up detailed specs for that model (which takes some determination in and of itself) and it has none of the characteristics of an LED TV. The contrast is low, the response time is high, in fact it turns out it's an LCD TV! Apparently the industry markets using LED to mean LED _backlight_, which to me was misleading. So what class of TV will get me what I'm after? There are places to figure it all out, but Amazon sure as hell isn't one of them. Nor is Best Buy, Walmart, or most other retailers you've heard of. They still do an awful job helping you find what you're looking for in many cases.

Re: What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital advertising?

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very interesting point, which in fact plays in defense of original article. Bob Hoffmann, very influential figure in advertising ( http://adcontrarian.blogspot.com/ ) likes to point out that there were not that many companies which built their strong brand with online advertising only. OK, he is old and grumpy dude and he dislikes online ads, but this is a fair point. Once company becomes big enough, it str…

I can name a handful that I've never seen an ad for on TV or in print (or maybe 3 or 4 years after using them). Twitter, DoorDash, Lyft...compared to SkipTheDishes in Canada, which has commercials on during SNL but maybe it's already hit peak internet marketing there, or maybe more appropriately GoDaddy which wasn't much until their Superbowl ad.

Google Twitter, DoorDash, and Lyft + billboard. Just one example, they all do plenty of non-online advertising.

Re: What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital advertising?

#276
post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But isn't digital advertising substantially cheaper than traditional ad buys (e.g. print, TV)? If clients can spend much less to reach the same number of potential customers, why is it necessary for them to spend equal to or more than a traditional ad budget?

If the ROI was higher, then they would spend more. Simple as that. But not company has done this, suggesting the ROI is not as good as was thought circa 2010.

Diminishing returns. Once your total addressable market knows about you, slamming it with ads isn’t going to help.

Re: What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital advertising?

#277

Overstated. This article assumes that: - All online advertising is Google search - That brand search advertising is representative of the entire industry There are plenty of companies making double-digit ROAS (return over ad spend), especially direct response advertisers.

Hi, I'm the author of the article, and I don't assume all online advertising is Google search. I also cite research on display advertising (meta-study of 432 display experiments on Google): https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2701578 And on Facebook advertising: https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/gordon_b/files/... The problem with all online advertising is that there are huge selection effects, which are hard to…

I can confirm this. I've run similar studies at my current employer (some of them with one of the persons you cite in your article) on multiple very large advertising platforms for display advertising. The causal ad effect is very often indistinguishable from statistical noise.

Re: What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital advertising?

#278

Overstated. This article assumes that: - All online advertising is Google search - That brand search advertising is representative of the entire industry There are plenty of companies making double-digit ROAS (return over ad spend), especially direct response advertisers.

The ROAS numbers given by FB (your employer) are far from being a real estimate of the causal effect of adverts. For example, there's no way to have global holdback against other advertising channels not controlled by FB. Double-digit anything are easy to get on any advertising perfomance metric if you don't scale your spend, so it's not really an argument.

(Disclaimer: I've built multiple bidders & ads incrementality models over the years so I'm probably biased against the "supply" side of ad inventory).

Re: What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital advertising?

#279

Great to see an article like this. This subject is almost suspiciously under-researched by journalists. There 's definitely something rotten in the promises that internet advertising has become somehow more effective. If that were true, wouldn't businesses notice? Wouldn't they spend a bigger part of their revenue on ads ? Wouldn't that return even bigger ROIs? Yet businesses spend roughly the same for over a century…

>Wouldn't they spend a bigger part of their revenue on ads ? _For context, we've worked with thousands of advertisers worldwide_ They do, up to a certain extent. ROI isn't the only element to look at here, what also matters is at what max scale you can keep this ROI. Let's take e-commerce as an example scenario:

A digital channel can deliver a solid ROI (>200%) at $10K-$50K / month. Advertiser is excited, wants to scale to $500K / month. ROI drops to 110%. Woops, not as good. So what does advertiser do? Advertiser finds the max scale they can run at to maintain an acceptable level of ROI (for ex, 140%) and that is $100K / month of spend on that channel.

The interesting shift we're seeing is that historically, advertisers just went on and multiplied the number of channels, spending $10K / mo on channel 1, $50K / mo on channel 2, $500K / mo on channel 3. However, the cost of maintaining each channel and optimizing is greater than the added value. So current trend we're seeing is consolidation of this spend, and understanding that they won't be able to spend as much on ads since they still to need that 140% ROI, but only on a few channels.

As to measurement, incrementality measurement (usually two methods, ITT (intention to treat, divide your entire audience in 2 parts and show ads to only 1 of the group) or ghost ads (described below) delivers a very clean metric as to whether ad spend if bringing any sort of value and how much value it actually brings. Assuming a healthy p-value is present (aka, assuming advertiser is running enough marketing spend $ that results are significant), that's your answer to how much more you should invest on the current marketing campaigns (or it will show that you need to change your campaigns because current ones are not performing)

Re: What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital advertising?

#280

Overstated. This article assumes that: - All online advertising is Google search - That brand search advertising is representative of the entire industry There are plenty of companies making double-digit ROAS (return over ad spend), especially direct response advertisers.

Worth mentioning the conflict of interest that you work for facebook's Ads Growth.

Ah, not anymore. Outdated information, I work on a different advertising platform :)
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