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Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

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Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#31

Post by anongraddebt »

walrus01 wrote: post #12
dangxiaopin wrote: post #4

I am long on Uber: taxis are dead, it will not go anywhere. The only problem is that the board made a strategic mistake that felt good short term. They tried to retain users by pushing the founder out, and hiring a diversity CEO. This failed long term as any populist board move does. But they still have a chance to have their NeXT moment and bring Travis back.

Yes, let's totally bring back the frat bros, that will solve most any business model problem.

I'm not oppossed to frat bro culture tout court. As long as employees aren't being harmed and productivity is high, then the choice to work at a place with just such a culture is like the decision to choose to work anywhere. Pretty standard stuff.

However, people can mistake a frat bro culture with actually high productivity (leaving aside questions of whether employees are harmed by the culture). Zenefits pre-Parkers-leave might be an example. Employees can't be getting drunk and having sex in stairwells during office hours and retain a high level of productivity.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#32

Post by tempsy »

ProAm wrote: post #15

Is anyone really surprised? Years before the IPO we knew they were not profitable in the least. We knew VC cash was subsidizing rides. We knew that their future was purely dependent on a self-driving car fleet where they could ditch drivers (and their pay) completely. This on top of a horrible culture with pretty lousy ethics and morality. This is how this was supposed to play out and everyone here (on HN) knew that.…

It's still a 45B company...still the largest and most successful company to come out of SF this decade.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#33

Post by omarhaneef »

semiotagonal wrote: post #24
omarhaneef wrote: post #19

So I think people may be misinterpreting this drop: lock up expired today, so the sales today -- throughout the day -- are a result of the lock up expiry. This pre-market drop is the result of people anticipating the drop and selling before the market opens. It is also, partly, driven by the disappointing earnings from 3 days ago, and indeed the drops over the last few days have been about as large. For what its wort…

I'm surprised it isn't much lower. Maybe people holding the stock are too "pot-committed" to sell at this point?

I hate to be glib about valuations. There are a few people out there who have done the hard work:

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2019/04/ubers-coming-out...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/02/22/br...

And Bloomberg had a good one, though I can't find it now.

I am not endorsing any of these, but the difference between a bull and bear (or, if you will, a valuation higher than what we have and lower than what we have) is probably how much you think additional business are worth.

So if you think that food delivery, logistics etc will amount to a large, valuable business, I think you are bullish.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#34

Post by bpt3 »

rb808 wrote: post #28

What surprises me is that so many tech companies issue huge amounts of RSUs and their stock price hasn't tanked. Do people actually keep their RSUs in their employer? I sell asap, I'm not going to be Enron'd. One day this whole house of cards will collapse. Would be great if anyone had some figures on how many employees sell vs keep their RSUs.

The amount of RSUs isn't that large compared to the company valuation.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#35

Post by hodder »

ProAm wrote: post #15

Is anyone really surprised? Years before the IPO we knew they were not profitable in the least. We knew VC cash was subsidizing rides. We knew that their future was purely dependent on a self-driving car fleet where they could ditch drivers (and their pay) completely. This on top of a horrible culture with pretty lousy ethics and morality. This is how this was supposed to play out and everyone here (on HN) knew that.…

Sure, but the same could be said of Tesla. Horrible employer, constant exec churn, unbelievable cash burn, what appears to be structural losses.... But Tesla still has a 56B mcap today. Uber is 46B. These VC/equity issue cash furnaces can go on longer than most can fathom if a subset of investors believe in the long term vision.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#37

Post by pbreit »

cfitz wrote: post #8

I wonder if lockup agreements will ever be made illegal. I doubt it, since they’re primarily there to ensure the original investors get an ROI, but they sure seem to be an overall negative incentive for the general public / retail traders to purchase stock with lockup agreements, given the earliest they can buy is right when the IPO pops.

It's crazy that in 2019 investment banks are still using such a blunt instrument to manage shares becoming available for trading. It would be trivial to let insider shares trickle out for some period of time enabling insiders to monetize while avoiding a plunge.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#38

Post by whatok »

rb808 wrote: post #28

What surprises me is that so many tech companies issue huge amounts of RSUs and their stock price hasn't tanked. Do people actually keep their RSUs in their employer? I sell asap, I'm not going to be Enron'd. One day this whole house of cards will collapse. Would be great if anyone had some figures on how many employees sell vs keep their RSUs.

Or you could just look at what happened with WeWork employees as a recent example. I don't see why anyone (especially in your 20s with significant net worth tied up) would hold onto this once the lock is up.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#39

Post by swampthinker »

tempsy wrote: post #32
ProAm wrote: post #15

Is anyone really surprised? Years before the IPO we knew they were not profitable in the least. We knew VC cash was subsidizing rides. We knew that their future was purely dependent on a self-driving car fleet where they could ditch drivers (and their pay) completely. This on top of a horrible culture with pretty lousy ethics and morality. This is how this was supposed to play out and everyone here (on HN) knew that.…

It's still a 45B company...still the largest and most successful company to come out of SF this decade.

It's the most successful cashout for investors and early employees, but let's not act like Uber isn't still running on borrowed time.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#40

Post by ProAm »

tempsy wrote: post #32
ProAm wrote: post #15

Is anyone really surprised? Years before the IPO we knew they were not profitable in the least. We knew VC cash was subsidizing rides. We knew that their future was purely dependent on a self-driving car fleet where they could ditch drivers (and their pay) completely. This on top of a horrible culture with pretty lousy ethics and morality. This is how this was supposed to play out and everyone here (on HN) knew that.…

It's still a 45B company...still the largest and most successful company to come out of SF this decade.

It's not successful though. WeWork is still valued at 47B technically speaking today. They are a company that only loses money, has a horrid culture and does some morally reprehensible things.

Their true value is their logistics software. If they would lease/sell that to other industries they would be rich beyond belief.

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