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Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

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Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#11

I am long on Uber: taxis are dead, it will not go anywhere. The only problem is that the board made a strategic mistake that felt good short term. They tried to retain users by pushing the founder out, and hiring a diversity CEO. This failed long term as any populist board move does. But they still have a chance to have their NeXT moment and bring Travis back.

You are long on the new transportation model for taxi like rides but is Uber the right horse to bet on? I personally think not.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#12

I am long on Uber: taxis are dead, it will not go anywhere. The only problem is that the board made a strategic mistake that felt good short term. They tried to retain users by pushing the founder out, and hiring a diversity CEO. This failed long term as any populist board move does. But they still have a chance to have their NeXT moment and bring Travis back.

Yes, let's totally bring back the frat bros, that will solve most any business model problem.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#13

I am long on Uber: taxis are dead, it will not go anywhere. The only problem is that the board made a strategic mistake that felt good short term. They tried to retain users by pushing the founder out, and hiring a diversity CEO. This failed long term as any populist board move does. But they still have a chance to have their NeXT moment and bring Travis back.

Travis was removed for (among other reasons) being a rather massive legal liability.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#14
post #7

With the layoffs, the quarterly earnings, and now this, it sounds like Uber’s having a bit of a tough time. Sentiment about the viability of Uber long term is quite negative. Can anybody at Uber talk about what the morale and culture is like right now? I’ve received a job offer and I’m struggling to reconcile what I’m observing externally with what I’m hearing from the small set of people I’ve spoken to.

Doesn't appear HN is particularly negative about Uber:

https://hnprofile.com/compare?search=uber,lyft

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#15
Is anyone really surprised? Years before the IPO we knew they were not profitable in the least. We knew VC cash was subsidizing rides. We knew that their future was purely dependent on a self-driving car fleet where they could ditch drivers (and their pay) completely. This on top of a horrible culture with pretty lousy ethics and morality.

This is how this was supposed to play out and everyone here (on HN) knew that. The only people suckered were public investors during the IPO roadshow.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#16
From Q3 results, it sounded like the company was profitable just on ride-sharing itself and was losing a ton of money on eats + cargo + autonomous vehicles R&D.

I wonder what a fair valuation would be for just the ride-sharing business if they were to spin off / shut down every other part of their business and essentially become Lyft.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#17
post #8

I wonder if lockup agreements will ever be made illegal. I doubt it, since they’re primarily there to ensure the original investors get an ROI, but they sure seem to be an overall negative incentive for the general public / retail traders to purchase stock with lockup agreements, given the earliest they can buy is right when the IPO pops.

Direct listings don't have lockups. Spotify and Slack have used this method to go public in recent years.

The stock prices of those two companies don't seem to have benefited much from the immediate liquidity though.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#18

I am long on Uber: taxis are dead, it will not go anywhere. The only problem is that the board made a strategic mistake that felt good short term. They tried to retain users by pushing the founder out, and hiring a diversity CEO. This failed long term as any populist board move does. But they still have a chance to have their NeXT moment and bring Travis back.

Travis was removed for (among other reasons) being a rather massive legal liability.

They were too risk averse then (probably a consequence of the gigantic funding). Maybe the risk is lower now.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#19
So I think people may be misinterpreting this drop:

lock up expired today, so the sales today -- throughout the day -- are a result of the lock up expiry.

This pre-market drop is the result of people anticipating the drop and selling before the market opens.

It is also, partly, driven by the disappointing earnings from 3 days ago, and indeed the drops over the last few days have been about as large.

For what its worth, shares are slightly up from the open.

Re: Uber Sinks to New Record Low as IPO Share Lockup Expires

#20
post #8

I wonder if lockup agreements will ever be made illegal. I doubt it, since they’re primarily there to ensure the original investors get an ROI, but they sure seem to be an overall negative incentive for the general public / retail traders to purchase stock with lockup agreements, given the earliest they can buy is right when the IPO pops.

> I doubt it, since they’re primarily there to ensure the original investors get an ROI, but they sure seem to be an overall negative incentive for the general public / retail traders to purchase stock with lockup agreements, given the earliest they can buy is right when the IPO pops.

That seems slightly backwards. The lockup protects buyers in the IPO more than sellers: it means you can be confident that the market isn't going to be flooded tomorrow. Anyone who bought in the IPO has now had plenty of time to get out, if they wanted to.

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