Uber Q3 Results • Hacker News Board

Re: Uber Q3 Results

#111

Post by nabla9 » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 9:57 AM UTC

btown wrote: post #30

Animats wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someday, I want to see a financial statement where the non-GAAP accounting makes the company look worse than GAAP accounting. Statistically, that should happen half the time. It doesn't.

Having worked with investment bankers: Statistically speaking, bankers develop various hypotheses re: what "adjustments" might be added to a financial model to make the company look better to investors. They tell their junior analysts to run the numbers, this flows down the chain, and many late nights and Seamless orders ensue. Experienced bankers have pretty good priors, so most of these hypotheses make the company…

During the late 90's stock market boom, the CEO of the biggest bank in Finland made the company bottom line to match his personal phone number as a joke.

Getting first two numbers right was the hard part :)

Re: Uber Q3 Results

#112

Post by hyperbovine » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 9:57 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #14

georgeecollins wrote: post #10

You have to go past a lot of non-GAAP accounting to see that they actually lost $1.1B last quarter, almost all from operations. There is a nice chart showing all the things they are taking out to get their adjusted EBITDA of -0.5B. It seems like they are always taking out a bunch of one time charges to claim that there core business would be profitable. But every quarter they have those charges. I don't understand ho…

Someday, I want to see a financial statement where the non-GAAP accounting makes the company look worse than GAAP accounting. Statistically, that should happen half the time. It doesn't.

What statistical model is this?

Re: Uber Q3 Results

#113

Post by hyperbovine » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 9:59 AM UTC

heyflyguy wrote: post #11

I'd love to hear some smart people opinions on this idea: "Uber doesn't need to be profitable, they just need to survive until their autonomous cars are deployed"

2015 would like its hot take back.

Re: Uber Q3 Results

#114

Post by jeltz » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 10:02 AM UTC

rauchp wrote: post #46

glofish wrote: post #44

Basically they lost 10% of their gross bookings. Does this mean that raising the price by 10% has them breaking even? Maybe. It does show the immense potential though, their bookings are so large that 10 percent change would net them billions more. They are booking 1 billion dollars worth of rides every week.

> their bookings are so large that 10 percent change would net them billions more. Kind of a hot take, but this is why I'm long Uber. They're processing an insane amount of orders, and getting a huge amount of people using their app. If Lyft dies, or if a merger occurs, then we have a large ride share company that is still a lot more than 10% better than taxis. Most customers will still be taking Ubers, regardless of…

Hm, but to me it seems like Uber is getting more competitors not fewer. Bolt for example has started competing with Uber in more cities and the traditional taxi companies are getting their shit together in some countries.

Re: Uber Q3 Results

#115

Post by alpha_squared » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 10:29 AM UTC

JimmyAustin wrote: post #106

thecupisblue wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all an Uber illusion: # No money changes hands, so safer for drivers. Not true in many countries where cash is supported in Uber. # No payment is made in the vehicle, so faster exit times. Not true in many countries where cash is supported in Uber. # Uber uses any credit card, so your boss can pay for your ride without the need for separate expensing. I wouldn't do that a lot of times - I switched a few cards on…

> Not true in many countries where cash is supported in Uber. I've taken Ubers in at least 7 countries, many of which have had a cash option (India and Vietnam), neither of which I took up. The average uber driver will have considerably less cash on them then the average cabbie. > No payment is made in the vehicle, so faster exit times. Only if you pay in cash. > Uber uses any credit card, so your boss can pay for yo…

There's at least one country I've been to (Egypt), where it's cash-only. Unsure if it's the standout, but I really wouldn't be surprised if there were others.

Re: Uber Q3 Results

#116

Post by Jommi » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 10:33 AM UTC

thecupisblue wrote: post #103

mikemotherwell wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are way more positives than that: # No money changes hands, so safer for drivers. # No payment is made in the vehicle, so faster exit times. # Uber records all trips, so easier to work out costs to expense. # Uber uses any credit card, so your boss can pay for your ride without the need for separate expensing. # Driver and passenger are tracked, so there it is easy to find who did what. There are a lot of rape…

It's all an Uber illusion: # No money changes hands, so safer for drivers. Not true in many countries where cash is supported in Uber. # No payment is made in the vehicle, so faster exit times. Not true in many countries where cash is supported in Uber. # Uber uses any credit card, so your boss can pay for your ride without the need for separate expensing. I wouldn't do that a lot of times - I switched a few cards on…

>Cash Argument

Im not sure what you're trying to say? All Uber markets that support cash also support card.

> Card Declines Of course you will get blocked if you add an active uber accounts payment method. Thats basically a huge red signal for fraud.

> Rating Of course someone needs to be the first one to rate the drivers. Yet this is 100000x better than nothing, which is what most regular cab companies give.

>Money Not really? This is absolutely country/city dependent and the whole point is that YOU as the driver get to decide if its worth it or not. There are no upfront costs involved.

Re: Uber Q3 Results

#117

Post by Jommi » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 10:34 AM UTC

jeltz wrote: post #114

rauchp wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> their bookings are so large that 10 percent change would net them billions more. Kind of a hot take, but this is why I'm long Uber. They're processing an insane amount of orders, and getting a huge amount of people using their app. If Lyft dies, or if a merger occurs, then we have a large ride share company that is still a lot more than 10% better than taxis. Most customers will still be taking Ubers, regardless of…

Hm, but to me it seems like Uber is getting more competitors not fewer. Bolt for example has started competing with Uber in more cities and the traditional taxi companies are getting their shit together in some countries.

I think most talk surrounding Uber in HN is just biased/centered around US market.

Re: Uber Q3 Results

#118

Post by kmlx » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 10:34 AM UTC

ganitarashid wrote: post #17

Having new “one-time” charges every quarter means those are not one-time charges. They’re part of the business, which means the business doesn’t work. One of Ubers biggest problems is that they have zero brand loyalty. For a company that sells a utility (get me, or my food, from A to B) rather than an experience (like a cool vacation in a unique mansion), I will always pick the cheapest option. Whether that’s Uber or…

"I will always pick the cheapest option... That means this whole business is a race to the bottom."

wow. how many trips do you do?

Re: Uber Q3 Results

#119

Post by Jommi » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 10:35 AM UTC

alpha_squared wrote: post #115

JimmyAustin wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not true in many countries where cash is supported in Uber. I've taken Ubers in at least 7 countries, many of which have had a cash option (India and Vietnam), neither of which I took up. The average uber driver will have considerably less cash on them then the average cabbie. > No payment is made in the vehicle, so faster exit times. Only if you pay in cash. > Uber uses any credit card, so your boss can pay for yo…

There's at least one country I've been to (Egypt), where it's cash-only. Unsure if it's the standout, but I really wouldn't be surprised if there were others.

It's not true anymore, with the Careem acquisition.

Re: Uber Q3 Results

#120

Post by jaysh » Tue, Nov 05, 2019, 10:37 AM UTC

kmlx wrote: post #118

ganitarashid wrote: post #17

Having new “one-time” charges every quarter means those are not one-time charges. They’re part of the business, which means the business doesn’t work. One of Ubers biggest problems is that they have zero brand loyalty. For a company that sells a utility (get me, or my food, from A to B) rather than an experience (like a cool vacation in a unique mansion), I will always pick the cheapest option. Whether that’s Uber or…

"I will always pick the cheapest option... That means this whole business is a race to the bottom." wow. how many trips do you do?

Not OP, but in the same boat, and currently travel regularly. I always almost all of them installed (e.g. Uber/Lyft/Ola/Bolt/Grab etc.) and pick the cheapest. For now, there's the added incentive that you never pay full-fare for your first ride, too, so new competition is great.