Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your "nearly" identical is why they are completely different. Only bitcoins are valid on the Bitcoin network. Any clonecoin's token will be rejected since nodes on the Bitcoin network validate transactions and blocks that are mined. Take any of the past 2 years' forks of Bitcoin (e.g. Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Super Bitcoin, etc.) and try to submit a transaction to the actual legitimate Bitcoin network. It will fai…
You wouldn't try to submit it to the "actual legitimate Bitcoin network" though. You'd bootstrap a whole new network instead. People might prefer a new blockchain that starts with a more even distribution, instead of enriching early adopters of BTC. That said, blockchain may not work at all, as applied to digital currencies. The abilities to revoke and expropriate are tools, like prisons are. Their use, on occasion,…
Bitcoin as a Game
51–60 of 82 posts
Re: Bitcoin as a Game
#52> The premise behind bitcoin-the-game is that the current wave of buyers must guess when (or if) a subsequent wave of buyers will emerge, this second next wave's participation being contingent on when (or if) they believe a third wave of buyers to emerge. If they guess right, the early birds win at the expense of the late ones. ... This is a truly tired analysis. It goes by various names, including "greater fool theo…
Stocks represent actual ownership in the company, potentially voting control of the boards decisions. Government bonds are backed by the full force and trust of the government they represent, and repay the face value plus yield promised at the time they were bought . They represent the most reliable yield you can get. Real estate? You mean that thing you live in? This is all a bunch of a false equivocation with one g…
A company is an abstract concept around a group of people, framed inside a legal entity. But yes, if you own many stocks you can sit at the table with some big boys. Most companies come with less risk than Bitcoin. But I rather buy Bitcoin than WeWork shares (assuming they list).
> Government bonds are backed by the full force and trust of the government they represent, and repay the face value plus yield promised at the time they were bought. They represent the most reliable yield you can get.
Until a government defaults. This doesn't happy every week, but ruling out that it doesn't is not the best investment strategy.
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I'm not denying Bitcoin is speculation, but so is everything else. Sure Bitcoin might be more speculative under your frame of reference. But it's not black and white.
Re: Bitcoin as a Game
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your clone of Bitcoin wouldn't be a 'clone' any more than a lead bar is a 'clone' of gold. You might call it bitcoin all you want, but no actualy bitcoin software would be fooled. (You might trick some people, but fraud has existed long before computers). It's a lot less expensive to reliably distinguish a fraudulent bitcoin from a fraudulent goal bar. So even if you hold the position that there is no perfect scarcit…
My clone of bitcoin would have exactly the same properties as bitcoin. Your lead bar doesn't have any of the useful properties of gold (ductability, beauty, conductivity, etc).
Re: Bitcoin as a Game
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
> gold is exactly the same Gold is similar. It's got more history. But it's more difficult to transact with. Bitcoin appears to be this generation's (late-boomer to early-millennial) gold or trading cards or what-have-you.
Is it more difficult to transact with? I can hand you a gold coin. But with bitcoin we need the internet and a whole network of miners.
Re: Bitcoin as a Game
#55The author just described how bitcoin has property of money (being a speculative bet that a given asset will carry value in the future), and deduced that bitcoin is not money.
That's not what money is. You're describing futures.
Re: Bitcoin as a Game
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your "nearly" identical is why they are completely different. Only bitcoins are valid on the Bitcoin network. Any clonecoin's token will be rejected since nodes on the Bitcoin network validate transactions and blocks that are mined. Take any of the past 2 years' forks of Bitcoin (e.g. Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Super Bitcoin, etc.) and try to submit a transaction to the actual legitimate Bitcoin network. It will fai…
You wouldn't try to submit it to the "actual legitimate Bitcoin network" though. You'd bootstrap a whole new network instead. People might prefer a new blockchain that starts with a more even distribution, instead of enriching early adopters of BTC. That said, blockchain may not work at all, as applied to digital currencies. The abilities to revoke and expropriate are tools, like prisons are. Their use, on occasion,…
Bitcoin's initial distribution was as preferable as it can really get. It was announced to a mailing list of people most likely to pay attention to it. Anyone with a computer could join the network and be rewarded with bitcoins. You didn't even need to have a fast computer. The software was free and open source. There isn't much you can improve upon without introducing trust or maligned identification schemes.
Re: Bitcoin as a Game
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Gold has those same uses but at an international level and is generally approved of. The gold may never actually move, but ownership will transfer between countries.
But you have to use a middleman or intermediary. The genius of bitcoin was when Satoshi removed that and solved the double-spending problem in a decentralized way. >Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System
Re: Bitcoin as a Game
#58> The premise behind bitcoin-the-game is that the current wave of buyers must guess when (or if) a subsequent wave of buyers will emerge, this second next wave's participation being contingent on when (or if) they believe a third wave of buyers to emerge. If they guess right, the early birds win at the expense of the late ones. ... This is a truly tired analysis. It goes by various names, including "greater fool theo…
This one I have real issue with, ignores the much scorned buyback or any facet of capital investment. Your issue trades at a certain eps multiple, you take earned cash, buy shares with it. Sort of in a vacuum, it's the same business, why should the earnings change? But now you have less shares outstanding, so now your shares are in a more empirical sense worth more. If you want to consider it, the capital return can come from the company buying your shares. It can be harder with a company like amazon when they had a X00 eps, but it's still all about valuation. Amazon circa 2019 /= Amazon 1997.
>Government bonds? Do do negative interest rates sound? You buy one of these because either you have to or you think others will have to.
Yeah, some truth here. Alternatively, you do it because you think rates might go lower still, and their returns aren't highly correlated to equities. There's also a theory I'm partial to where in the pockets of the world that have a crazy high amount of savings, even past encouraging entities to find better returns, negative interest rates make no bones about making the the cost of savings clear.
>Real estate? Please. Take away price appreciation driven by easy money and few would bother "owning."
In a personal sense, real estate you own is rent you don't have to pay. In an external sense, real estate you own/operate is cash flows you can bring in. The elevated markets admittedly tend not to look so great in cash flow metrics.
Re: Bitcoin as a Game
#59Then I would say gold is exactly the same. In fact, gold would be a riskier betting game as information is less transparent (estimating supply, how fast It's mined etc) compared to bitcoin.
Re: Bitcoin as a Game
#60So many articles about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies today! I've devoted a lot of my career to blockchain, and here is my brief summary: - Blockchain typically means a tamper-proof, distributed database. - Smart contracts are like stored database procedures. - Blockchains allow you to transact valuable assets - even billions! - without needing to trust your counter-party. - However, you must trust the underlying softw…
> However, you must trust the underlying software! This is a fundamentally different risk from usual financial transactions where you trust the institutions servicing the exchange, but not necessarily the counter-party. This turns finance upside-down! No, this is just normal finance: most of the financial service industry is providing exactly what blockchain provides—a way to have a trusted set of institutions and pr…
But hippocracy aside, I still think it's a better system than the one you find in fiat currencies. At least in the crypto case the people in the trusted position have something to lose--if they behave badly, people will lose faith in the currency and go elsewhere. It doesn't take much to move your assets between cryptos. If you control enough hashpower (assuming POW) or coin (assuming POS) you could easily lose it all overnight if you support a malicious fork.
In a fiat currency there's way more friction keeping people entrenched. This means that the banks can behave badly and still bet on a majority of their users sticking with their platform.
Besides, Bitcoin just proved the concept. If you don't accept that its fork mechanism has merit as is then I hope you can at least admit that there could be a system that is more effective than our current bureaucratic mess. And whatever that system is, it seems likely that one of the fledgling next-gen cryptos will find a way to make it happen.
I was reading about decred the other day, for instance. Voting on potential forks and then healing the partial schism caused by the vote is baked into their protocol. Apart from the necessary bit about trusting other stakeholders to vote reasonably, I think that in a scenario like that the trust placed directly in the protocol is not insignificant.