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Bitcoin as a Game

jpkoning.blogspot.com

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Re: Bitcoin as a Game

#41

Post by 1996 »

seibelj wrote: post #27

So many articles about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies today! I've devoted a lot of my career to blockchain, and here is my brief summary: - Blockchain typically means a tamper-proof, distributed database. - Smart contracts are like stored database procedures. - Blockchains allow you to transact valuable assets - even billions! - without needing to trust your counter-party. - However, you must trust the underlying softw…

TLDR: software is eating finance.

BTW something I've read here and I adopted as my tagline: it quite fun to come on ycombinator and read every single time the rambling of all the people predicting the doom of bitcoin -- you know, the thing that has managed without venture backing to become more valuable that ALL the ycombinator companies PUT TOGETHER.

TLDR2 : Sour grapes :)

I remember reading about a swedish guy that said he had seen the light and converted all of his savings in BTC. He was torn to shred by so many posters.

Funny thing: I haven't heard about him since, but I sure have read the moaning of the same people who had predicted he'd end up destitute. I think he's doing ok while they aren't.

I sure wish I had seen the light like he did, but I don't blame him for his hindsight. And after I saw most of the negative posts as sour grapes who just regretted they didn't act on the information that was available to them, I decided to act. Like you did.

Maybe more people should follow your example and stop misunderstanding the problem. Yes it needs economics + philosophy + psychology, but it can be learned. For those who don't want to learn, please don't blame those who do. Even more important: don't try to strop those who want. We need fewer sour grapes. Not more.

EDIT: Came from another thread to apologize when I saw my karma going to new lows. Sorry for rubbing it in. Downvote if it makes you feel any better about yourself and your past action.

Re: Bitcoin as a Game

#42

Post by seibelj »

dragonwriter wrote: post #32
seibelj wrote: post #27

So many articles about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies today! I've devoted a lot of my career to blockchain, and here is my brief summary: - Blockchain typically means a tamper-proof, distributed database. - Smart contracts are like stored database procedures. - Blockchains allow you to transact valuable assets - even billions! - without needing to trust your counter-party. - However, you must trust the underlying softw…

> However, you must trust the underlying software! This is a fundamentally different risk from usual financial transactions where you trust the institutions servicing the exchange, but not necessarily the counter-party. This turns finance upside-down! No, this is just normal finance: most of the financial service industry is providing exactly what blockchain provides—a way to have a trusted set of institutions and pr…

It's not the same. If the bank messes up a multi-million dollar wire transfer, you have recourse. If you mess up your multi-million dollar Bitcoin transfer, you have no recourse! Period!

Re: Bitcoin as a Game

#43

Post by marcoseliziario »

ftufek wrote: post #25
richk449 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely there is a difference between investments that have underlying value, but are speculated on, and investments which have no underlying value except that due to speculation.

Isn't the underlying value here mathematically provable scarcity ?

Variola virus samples are pretty scarce too. It doesn't make them a hot commodity.

Re: Bitcoin as a Game

#44

Post by grubles »

richk449 wrote: post #33
ftufek wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the underlying value here mathematically provable scarcity ?

How is that valuable, aside from ones ability to speculate on how much people will want it in the future? As an aside, I agree with the other poster that there is no intrinsic scarcity to bitcoin, because anyone can create bitcoinN which are nearly identical to bitcoin. I say nearly because you can’t necessarily replicate the network, so the scarcity really depends on complicated emergent human behavior.

Your "nearly" identical is why they are completely different. Only bitcoins are valid on the Bitcoin network. Any clonecoin's token will be rejected since nodes on the Bitcoin network validate transactions and blocks that are mined.

Take any of the past 2 years' forks of Bitcoin (e.g. Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Super Bitcoin, etc.) and try to submit a transaction to the actual legitimate Bitcoin network. It will fail.

One of Bitcoin's main technological achievements is solving this type of digital duplication problem. If anyone can just copy-and-paste new bitcoins into the system, it will fail.

Re: Bitcoin as a Game

#45

Post by ftufek »

richk449 wrote: post #33
ftufek wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the underlying value here mathematically provable scarcity ?

How is that valuable, aside from ones ability to speculate on how much people will want it in the future? As an aside, I agree with the other poster that there is no intrinsic scarcity to bitcoin, because anyone can create bitcoinN which are nearly identical to bitcoin. I say nearly because you can’t necessarily replicate the network, so the scarcity really depends on complicated emergent human behavior.

Of course you need to have demand for scarcity to be valuable. And I would argue that in the 10 years of it's existence so far, Bitcoin has proven that there is demand for it.

Of course, you can create an identical coin on paper. Many have tried and their attempts have failed because like you said, the human behavior (aka the social aspect, network effects, psychology, etc) also have a big effect.

In my opinion and feel free to disagree, I think Bitcoin has the true potential of being the internet's native currency, especially with many lightning network wallets coming online on the mainnet. It's far from being perfect and unfortunately has attracted many scammers and want-to-get-rich-quick-people over the last few years, but I believe it has a really great potential.

Re: Bitcoin as a Game

#46

Post by pg_is_a_butt »

astrodust wrote: post #19
dpc_pw wrote: post #6

The author just described how bitcoin has property of money (being a speculative bet that a given asset will carry value in the future), and deduced that bitcoin is not money.

That's not what money is. You're describing futures.

That's not what futures are.

You're describing money.

Re: Bitcoin as a Game

#47

Post by alwillis »

richk449 wrote: post #22
aazaa wrote: post #14

> The premise behind bitcoin-the-game is that the current wave of buyers must guess when (or if) a subsequent wave of buyers will emerge, this second next wave's participation being contingent on when (or if) they believe a third wave of buyers to emerge. If they guess right, the early birds win at the expense of the late ones. ... This is a truly tired analysis. It goes by various names, including "greater fool theo…

Surely there is a difference between investments that have underlying value, but are speculated on, and investments which have no underlying value except that due to speculation.

Bitcoin is a non-sovereign, hard-capped supply, global, immutable decentralized digital store of value. It’s an insurance policy against monetary and fiscal policy irresponsibility from governments and central banks globally.

Bitcoin’s genesis block contains a reference to the 2008 financial crisis; Bitcoin is pretty clearly a response to what was happening October 2008, when the Bitcoin white paper was released.

Ironically, the global economy is contracting even as we’re still dealing with the quantitative easing that was used to keep things afloat the last time. Say what you will, but there’s a good chance bitcoin will be the safe haven, which it currently is for Argentina and Venezuela.

Re: Bitcoin as a Game

#48

Post by semiotagonal »

grubles wrote: post #44
richk449 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that valuable, aside from ones ability to speculate on how much people will want it in the future? As an aside, I agree with the other poster that there is no intrinsic scarcity to bitcoin, because anyone can create bitcoinN which are nearly identical to bitcoin. I say nearly because you can’t necessarily replicate the network, so the scarcity really depends on complicated emergent human behavior.

Your "nearly" identical is why they are completely different. Only bitcoins are valid on the Bitcoin network. Any clonecoin's token will be rejected since nodes on the Bitcoin network validate transactions and blocks that are mined. Take any of the past 2 years' forks of Bitcoin (e.g. Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Super Bitcoin, etc.) and try to submit a transaction to the actual legitimate Bitcoin network. It will fai…

You wouldn't try to submit it to the "actual legitimate Bitcoin network" though. You'd bootstrap a whole new network instead. People might prefer a new blockchain that starts with a more even distribution, instead of enriching early adopters of BTC.

That said, blockchain may not work at all, as applied to digital currencies. The abilities to revoke and expropriate are tools, like prisons are. Their use, on occasion, is just. Society might not want to see those tools discarded.

Re: Bitcoin as a Game

#49

Post by solotronics »

Somebody probably made the same arguments when the first paper money was printed and when the first government fiat came about. This is the next money and it's important because corrupt governments can not steal it or devalue it by printing.

Re: Bitcoin as a Game

#50

Post by solotronics »

richk449 wrote: post #33
ftufek wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the underlying value here mathematically provable scarcity ?

How is that valuable, aside from ones ability to speculate on how much people will want it in the future? As an aside, I agree with the other poster that there is no intrinsic scarcity to bitcoin, because anyone can create bitcoinN which are nearly identical to bitcoin. I say nearly because you can’t necessarily replicate the network, so the scarcity really depends on complicated emergent human behavior.

The same way gold is valuable. The industrial value of gold is near silver and therefore without speculation and its use as a store of value it would be worth closer to $100 instead of $1500.
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