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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#251

Post by OnlineGladiator »

jdietrich wrote: post #230
OnlineGladiator wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but it solves the problem of traction. The electric vehicle also reduces efficiency by adding weight to the vehicle - being electric doesn't change physics. And being able to remove weight is always preferable to not being able to remove weight.

>The electric vehicle also reduces efficiency by adding weight to the vehicle - being electric doesn't change physics. The battery adds weight, but that's more than outweighed by the tremendous efficiency of an electric drivetrain. The EV equivalent of a gas-guzzler (e.g. a Tesla Model X P90D) still achieves the equivalent of 90mpg.

I am not arguing that an ICE vehicle is more efficient than an electric vehicle - I am saying that adding weight reduces efficiency for both. I was not making a general comparison between the pros and cons of electric vehicles, I was pointing out that one person's comment about better traction for electric vehicles was incredibly disingenuous because ICE vehicles can get the same benefit by simply adding weight - and they can also remove that weight when they want to unlike the electric vehicle.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#252

Post by nostrebored »

triceratops wrote: post #122
rayiner wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no scientific basis for this statement. IPCC estimates of impact on global GDP are about 5% under a “do nothing” scenario by 2100. Countries like India will likely be better off charging full speed ahead with economic development, even in light of the problems caused by climate change.

> Countries like India will likely be better off charging full speed ahead with economic development, even in light of the problems caused by climate change. And if they do that, countries like the US can say "what's the point in us doing anything about climate change? India and China will wipe out any carbon emissions reductions we make." Pretty handy, right?

Right, we should sacrifice millions of lives in the developing world because we're unwilling to curb emissions! Until western countries prove that this isn't a massive effort to secure their status why should the developing world literally kill itself?

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#253

Post by Robotbeat »

shiftpgdn wrote: post #166
corodra wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a capitalist, I want to own all the lithium mining rights in the world. I dictate the price and flow when I seem fit. Like De Beers in blood diamonds... cough, sorry, "ethically sourced diamonds". As a consumer, I want many, many capitalists owning different lithium mining rights in the world. They fight each other to lower the price and be competitive. Then find cheaper and cheaper ways to obtain lithium or even…

Lithium is easily sustainable to mine and there are wildly ample amounts of reserves in the US. Almost all negative articles about vehicle electrification are hit pieces that intentionally conflate lithium and rare earth materials like Cobalt.

I agree with you, but Cobalt is not a rare earth material.

And just to reiterate: lithium is abundant, widely distributed, and cobalt isn't required for batteries (LiFePO4 is a common chemistry, uses no cobalt, and has very long cycle life... good especially for grid applications).

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#254

Post by Faark »

dfsegoat wrote: post #239
mxschumacher wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard that consumers perceive SUVs as safer

Consumer Reports seems to back this up, but they cite an added rollover risk: > "In car vs. SUV head-on crashes, the study found that the odds of death were 7.6 times higher for the car driver than the SUV driver. In crashes where the car had a better front crash-test rating than the SUV did, the car's driver fared a bit better but was still four and a half times more likely to die than the SUV driver. " > "Choosing…

A criticism is this being at the cost of the other crash participant (due to mass), thus it being a spiral were everyone will drive military tanks a bit down the line.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#255

Post by nostrebored »

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #12
nabla9 wrote: post #2

This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…

If we assume the developed world will eventually care to do something about the climate heating in the medium or long term, this is terrible for the developing world. Build out the infrastructure for oil, the refuelling, without need of a power grid for EVs first. Then find in 2040 or 2050 that the developed world imposes trade sanctions or other pressure for not being carbon neutral. Build an infrastructure for at b…

Right, the predicted cliff edge we've been hypothesizing is imminent for decades vs. the near-immediate loss of life caused by rejection of fossil fuels

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#256

Post by OnlineGladiator »

cartoonworld wrote: post #237
OnlineGladiator wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. The problem you're mentioning being solved by a battery pack could just as easily be solved by putting any random ballast in the back of the regular truck. I think electric will have other advantages (and disadvantages), but I doubt this is a big one for most people.

Everyone throws some sandbags and rock salt in the bed, next to the shovel and tinfoil blanky. Sure gonna need it when you're stuck in the ditch :) I'd take computer managed digital torque delivery over feathering my old clutch plate, if you even still get to run one of those. The dual-clutch trans will need your other foot. Mushy delivery (Sounds like an f150 to me) and out of the mud aren't really compatible.

> Everyone throws some sandbags and rock salt in the bed, next to the shovel and tinfoil blanky. Sure gonna need it when you're stuck in the ditch :)

At least you can remove that weight when you need to. I bet it's a lot easier to tow a 4,000 pound truck out of a ditch than a 6,000 pound truck.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#257

Post by mistermann »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #82
eloff wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also contributing probably is the rising risk that if you don't pump that oil as fast as possible and sell it now, you might never be able to sell it. This is weighing on the Saudi Aramco IPO. Although probably not as much as the general opaque and untrustworthy reports from the Saudis as to how much oil they have left. We used to worry about peak oil, where a supply crunch would cause the price to skyrocket. Now it'…

[flagged]

> This demand whimper thing is inflaming politics very poorly in Canada. There is a very vocal and strong wing of right wing politics centred out of Alberta that blames central Canadian liberalism for its economic woes (for not building pipeline capacity and enacting carbon taxes).

This seems factual.

> Or at least that's their public line to inflame the masses while they know full well that their oil is expensive low quality oil and the world wide price of oil has been sagging for a half decade because of global macroeconomic forces that the rest of Canada has no control over.

This seems more like a heuristically constructed perception of reality, presented as if it is fact.

> It's becoming quite toxic, and is an example (along with Trump's nonsense coal jobs rhetoric) of the kind of thing that we are going to have to deal with as the economic and political realities of climate change become more visible.

This seems to equate the economic feasibility of coal jobs with that of oil in Canada (if a pipeline to transport the oil existed). Again, this doesn't seem consistent with a factual evaluation of reality.

> (That, and xenophobic hostility to refugees which will inevitably increase as climate change further damages the global south.)

  xenophobic having or showing a dislike of or prejudice against people from other countries.
This seems to presume a specific line of reasoning behind a presumed level of disapproval of refugees (and I would presume this judgement would also extend to immigrants in general?), when the reality is there is actually no way to know with a high level of certainty precisely what and how (or if) large groups of people think on complicated multi-dimensional topics.

The mind is a very tricky thing, it seems prudent to learn the sorts of powerful but error-prone things it does without our conscious knowledge, such that we can improve the quality of discourse on these and other topics, before time runs out.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#258

Post by ZeroGravitas »

One neat solution is to have a variable gas tax which rises and falls in near opposite to the price swings, but also slowly grows over time to account for carbon and pollution costs. This gives businesses and consumers an easy way to plan future costs.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#259

Post by hi5eyes »

FooHentai wrote: post #243
mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

>SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) My understanding is that this is a misleading fact - There are less models of SUV in the market than other classes of vehicle, so even if less SUVs, as a class, are sold than other cars, the lack of variance means the total number of a particular model is likely higher than sales of a model in any other class.

a trend right now is a lot of wealthy/upper middle class buy brand new pick up trucks, SUVs have replaced sedans/minivans are too washed dadcore

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#260

Post by nickik »

greglindahl wrote: post #236
nickik wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My solution would simply be to massively focus on nuclear. Replace all existing coal plants with nuclear plants and plug them into the network. Once you have mass production of nuclear power plants, you can start using nuclear power to create liquid alcohol fuels. Start a process of changing cars to electric or alcohol based fuels, the same goes for ships and eventually planes. The process of switching to alcohol bas…

> Now, unfortunately this should really have started in the 70s, Today's solar and wind boom was started in the 70s. It's kind of amazing how many people prefer the "bird in the bush" over the "bird in the hand".

That depends on definition. Yes, people were playing around with those things. But the idea that from the 70s to 2000s you could have systematically used wind and solar to replace fossil fuels is nonsense.

Even today no industrial country is even close to having even all its energy from solar and wind. And were not even talking about transportation.

For an alternative level you can look at France. France basically removed fossil fuels from its electricity production in less then 20 years of producing nuclear. And we know that CO2 saved earlier is more valuable.

Now they never went to the step of trying to introduce alcohol fuels, as of course their goal was to limit import of oil to make the French economy resilient and not to save CO2.

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